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EDMONTON, AB - OCTOBER 22 Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Brett Kulak (27) and Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Evan Bouchard (2) kill off a penalty in the second period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the St Louis Blues on October 22, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)
March 10, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg
Mattias Ekholm was exactly what the Edmonton Oilers needed. Ekholm has been an absolute stud in his five games as an Oiler to date. Much has been made of how much Evan Bouchard’s play has improved since being paired with Ekholm. However, I want to set the record straight here. It’s time to put some respect on Bouchard’s name.
It’s easy to look at the situation and say “the veteran has really stabilized the kid”. It’s not wrong to say that Ekholm has elevated Bouchard, but look at Bouchard’s numbers as derived using Natural Stat Trick:
| CF | GF | xGF | HDCF | |
| Season Total: | 1053-801 (56.8%) | 46-47 (49.46%) | 52.78-38.46 (57.85%) | 235-153 (60.57%) |
| Pre-Ekholm: | 963-730 (56.88%) | 39-44 (46.99%) | 47.9-35.03 (57.76%) | 211-140 (60.11%) |
| Since Ekholm: | 90-71 (55.9%) | 7-3 (70%) | 4.88-3.43 (58.72%) | 24-13 (64.86%) |
Yes, Bouchard’s goal share has improved significantly with Ekholm. Bouchard has gained four goals in his five games with Ekholm; but Bouchard outscored his opponents 25-16 (60.98%) at five-on-five between December 21, 2022 and Ekholm’s Oilers debut on March 1, 2023, a span of 28 games. He had a tough start to his season, but that rough patch has been behind him for quite some time. Bouchard was trending in the right direction in this metric for a long time before Ekholm’s arrival.
Bouchard’s HDCF (High Danger Chances For) percentage has increased by 4.75% since being paired with Ekholm, but it was already at 60.11%! Ekholm is helping, but Bouchard’s 60.11% was already quite strong without Ekholm. The same idea applies to his xGF (Expected Goals For) percentage. The increase in that metric is only 0.96%, and it was already pretty high prior to the Ekholm trade. Bouchard’s CF (Corsi For) has actually decreased by 0.98%, but his performance in that regard was strong before Ekholm, and it continues to be strong with Ekholm. None of these numbers suggest that Ekholm is carrying Bouchard.
Related: Oilers bolster blueline by acquiring Mattias Ekholm
My point is that Bouchard’s underlying numbers have been strong with or without Ekholm this year. These underlying numbers were even fantastic while Bouchard was struggling with his goal share early in the season. Evidence of his solid play has been there all along.
Make no mistake about it, Bouchard is pulling his weight in this pairing.
Bouchard has had two major sore spots with his numbers this season, his goals for percentage and his offensive output. I’ve already highlighted his recent positive growth with his goal share. Bouchard’s 25 points in 66 games this season is a far cry from his 43 point showing last season, but we can’t use points to evaluate a defenceman’s play, right? I joke because I’ve heard that argument many times before. If we can’t use points to support a defenceman playing well, then we can’t use a decrease in points to argue that a defenceman isn’t playing well. Regardless, his 31 point pace over 82 games is good production from a second year defenceman. Hopefully his goal against the Boston Bruins on Thursday night is fuel for a late season offensive surge from Bouchard.
It has been tough to notice Bouchard’s strong underlying metrics amid his early defensive struggles and being deployed on the third pairing with Philip Broberg for a large portion of the season. The two young former first rounders formed a solid but unspectacular pairing. The points were few and far between, but they consistently got the flow going the right direction.
Now, the spotlight is shining brightly on Bouchard because he’s playing with the shiny new toy on the second pairing and he’s been elevated into a prominent role on the top powerplay unit. He’s out of Tyson Barrie’s shadow. Bouchard is performing wonderfully under the spotlight, but the truth is that he was performing wonderfully in rehearsals too. Everyone is just able to see the show now.
None of this is meant to diminish Ekholm’s contributions to this team. He has been exactly as advertised, a solid shutdown defenceman that can transition the puck effectively. He was the right addition at the trade deadline. All of that is true, but let’s not diminish Bouchard’s contributions to the pairing’s success either just because he’s young and he had a poor start to his season. Bouchard is strong enough to stand up on his own now, and Ekholm is a fantastic partner for him.
