Oilerslive Tuesday – Dustin Nielson and Edmonton Sports Talk
August 23, 2023Jackson’s Potential Impact on the Oilers: Part Three – Professional Scouting and Analytics
August 25, 2023August 23, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg
Per multiple reports, the Edmonton Oilers have signed Evan Bouchard to a two-year deal with an average annual value of $3.9 million. For what it’s worth, our own Michael Hebert (@oilerslive) had the details three weeks ago:
Bouchard is coming off a season where he scored 40 points in 82 games, then added seventeen points in twelve games in the playoffs, a mark that led all NHL defencemen. The Oakville, ON native became the top option as the point man on the league’s all-time best powerplay after Tyson Barrie was shipped out of town at the trade deadline.
Nobody questions Bouchard’s ability to move the puck. The questions surface when discussing his defensive game. The 2018 tenth overall pick struggled in the goal share column in the first half of last season, but he ended up on the good side of the ledger at 53.66% (66-57) thanks in large part to a heater upon Mattias Ekholm’s arrival on Bouchard’s left side. Bouchard’s numbers did increase with Ekholm, but the underlying numbers aside from goal share were great for Bouchard before Ekholm arrived:
CF | GF | xG | HDCF | |
Pre-Ekholm: | 963-730 (56.88%) | 39-44 (46.99%) | 47.9-35.03(57.76%) | 211-140(60.11%) |
While Bouchard’s five on five goal share was 27-8 while paired with Ekholm, it should be noted that Bouchard’s five on five goal share between December 21, 2022 and Ekhom’s arrival was 25-16 (60.98%), a span of 28 games. Bouchard’s goal share was abysmal at the start of the season, but it had been trending upwards since before Christmas. It’s not fair to Bouchard to simply say that Ekholm stabilized Bouchard and that’s why he improved down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Here’s an updated look at the Oilers cap situation after the Bouchard signing:
Kane ($5.125M) McDavid ($12.5M) Hyman ($5.5M)
Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125M) Draisaitl ($8.5M) Brown ($775k)
Foegele ($2.75M) McLeod ($2.1M) Ryan ($900k)
Holloway ($925k) Janmark ($1M) Lavoie ($874,125)
Nurse ($9.25M) Ceci ($3.25M)
Ekholm ($6M) Bouchard ($3.9M)
Kulak ($2.75M) Desharnais ($762,500)
Broberg ($863,333)
Skinner ($2.6M)
Campbell ($5M)
Total: $80,449,958
Buyout: Neal ($1,916,667)
Overage: $850k
Total Cap Hit: $83,216,625
Cap Space: $283,375
Active Roster: 21
Bouchard’s signing basically confirms that the Oilers will be running a 21-man roster throughout the season barring injuries. That limits the roster flexibility that Ken Holland will have, but they made it work last year as well.
Puck Pedia has the Oilers with $382,499 in cap space, but they have Lane Pederson on the roster instead of Raphael Lavoie. Puck Pedia (@puckpedia) pointed out that the Oilers would be able to add a player with a cap hit of $1.7 million at the trade deadline since the team will be accruing cap space throughout the season rather than operating in LTIR where teams cannot accrue cap space.
The trade deadline usually happens with 41 days left in the 186 day regular season. If you multiply $1.7 million by 41/186, you get $374,731. That would be the amount that the new team would spend on the incoming player after the trade deadline. If you use $1,735,239, then the incoming cap hit would be exactly $382,499. The amount of cap space accrued for the Oilers could rise if Dylan Holloway or Philip Broberg spend any time in Bakersfield this season because they could be replaced with cheaper players.
Related: Speculating on Bouchard’s Contract Value
Bouchard is going to be a tremendous value to the Oilers at $3.9 million over the next two seasons with increased time in the top four at even strength and with being on the top powerplay unit full time. It’s unfortunate that there wasn’t enough cap space to ink Bouchard to a long-term deal, but that’s the reality. Bouchard will be expensive the next time around, and Bouchard’s contract expires at the same time as Leon Draisaitl’s contract does. 2025 is going to be an expensive summer for the Oilers.
1 Comment
Going to be just a massive value contract for the next two seasons!