Vegas Golden Knights and LTIR: Part 1 – Conspiracy Theories and Potential Solutions
March 11, 2024Trade deadline won’t define Oilers season
March 13, 2024March 12, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg
Much as been made of the Vegas Golden Knights and the way that they have utilized their available LTIR relief for Mark Stone. Be sure to check out part one of this piece where I discussed the conspiracy theories surrounding this issue and the potential solutions for preventing situations like this from happening in the future. This is the third consecutive season that Stone has been placed on the LTIR with a significant injury just prior to the trade deadline. Here’s a look at what the Golden Knights did at the trade deadline in each of those three seasons.
The Golden Knights did not make any trades at the 2022 trade deadline. That was the year they actually missed the playoffs. However, they did use LTIR to their advantage to acquire Jack Eichel early in that season.
Last season, Stone was placed on LTIR on February 20, 2023. Robin Lehner was also on LTIR last season, so the team was already operating in LTIR at that time. The Golden Knights also had Shea Weber’s contract on LTIR at that time. They traded Weber’s contract to the Arizona Coyotes for former Edmonton Oil King Dysin Mayo on February 22, 2023. They got rid of Weber’s full conrtract at no real cost to them. They gained $9.5 million in LTIR relief by placing Stone on LTIR. Here’s what they did with it:
VGK receives: Ivan Barbashev; STL receives: Zach Dean (2021 1st round pick)
VGK receives: Teddy Blueger; PIT receives: Peter Diliberatore, 2024 3rd round pick
VGK receives: Jonathan Quick (50% retained); CBJ receives: Michael Hutchinson, 2025 7th round pick
They added a total of $7.35 million at the deadline last season. Barbashev was an impact player for the Golden Knights during the playoffs. He was part of an excellent line featuring Jack Eichel and Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Marchessault. The other two additions were not as useful though. Blueger only appeared in six games for the Golden Knights last spring, and he only got two points. Quick didn’t see the ice in the postseason at all. The Barbashev trade was the only truly impactful trade. None of these deals had the caché of the New York Rangers landing Patrick Kane and Valdimir Tarasenko at the deadline, so I hardly view it as “loading up”. LTIR relief did help them add quite a bit of money though.
The Golden Knights made the same number of trades at this season’s deadline, but the moves they made this season were much bigger. They were already in trouble with Alec Martinez, Brett Howden, William Carrier, and Pavel Dorofeyev all being injured in addition to Stone at this year’s deadline. Their record was falling, they had plenty of holes to fill, and they had cap space to use to fill them. They also had a full slate of draft picks to use after not spending at the deadline in 2022 and recouping the draft picks they spent at the 2023 deadline by trading Reilly Smith to the Pittsburgh Penguins for the third round pick that was used to acquire Blueger, and swapping a 2023 seventh round pick for a 2024 seventh round pick with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
VGK Receives: Anthony Mantha (50% retained); WSH Receives: 2024 2nd round pick, 2026 4th round pick
VGK Receives: Noah Hanifin (50% retained); CGY Receives: 2026 1st round pick, conditional 2025 3rd round pick (becomes a 2nd round pick if VGK wins a playoff series in 2024), and Daniil Miromanov
VGK Receives: Tomas Hertl (17% retained), 2025 3rd round pick, 2027 3rd round pick; SJ Receives: 2025 1st round pick, David Edstrom (2023 32nd overall pick)
All in all, the Golden Knights added $12,075,000 in cap hits without trading anyone off of their roster at this deadline. They also got teams to retain $6,712,499 worth of salary cap hits for this season alone. They gave up two prospects and six draft picks. They were able to get two picks back from the Sharks in the Hertl deal, so their net loss was four picks. They somehow managed all of that without sacrificing their 2024 first round pick! If fans are going to be mad at anything, it should be how little Vegas had to pay for all of the salary retention and for the quality of players that they received!
Related: Vegas Golden Knights and LTIR: Part 1 – Conspiracy Theories and Potential Solutions
The Mantha trade is approximately fair value based on the other trades involving similar wingers last week. The Hanifin trade seems fair as well. I’m baffled by the Hertl trade though! The 17% salary retention brings Hertl’s cap hit to $6.75 million (down from $8,137,500) through the 2029-30 season. The Sharks got a late first round pick and a former late first round pick for Hertl and retaining $1,387,499 for the rest of this season ($296,289) plus SIX more years ($8,324,994) for a total of $8,621,283.
For comparison’s sake, the Oilers gave up a late first round pick and a former late first round pick (Reid Schaefer) in the Mattias Ekholm trade last season. The Oilers got 4% salary retention for the remainder of last season ($55,108) plus two more seasons ($500k) for a total of $555,108. The Oilers also gave the Nashville Predators Tyson Barrie AND a 2024 fourth round pick. The Oilers got a 2024 sixth round pick back along with Ekholm.
The Golden Knights are getting $8,566,175 more salary retention than what the Oilers got. Not only did the Golden Knights not have to give up a roster player in the Hertl trade, they also RECEIVED TWO THIRD ROUND PICKS from the Sharks! Hertl is a 30-year old that has six more years left on his contract after this one and the Sharks are in a rebuild, so perhaps they were desperate to get rid of the contract, but that return is ridiculous!
One could argue that maybe Oilers GM Ken Holland shouldn’t have given up so much for Ekholm, but I would argue that Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon is doing something right in negotiations. I view this as more of a credit to McCrimmon than an indictment of Holland. McCrimmon has a reputation for being able to get great players for seemingly cheap prices. Credit to him, but it’s frustrating as a fan of a divisional rival.
Some Oilers fans are upset that Holland wasn’t as aggressive as McCrimmon in Connor McDavid’s ninth NHL season and in the second last season of Leon Draisaitl’s contract. These are the fans that feel that the team should go “all-in” every year by spending all of the team’s future assets to acquire the biggest names possible at the trade deadline. Do you know why McCrimmon was in a position to strike at this year’s deadline (aside from Stone being placed on LTIR)? It’s because he didn’t spend at the 2022 deadline, and he was able to recoup his picks in the 2024 draft with offseason trades.
Holland has spent at each of the last five trade deadlines, and he has not recouped picks in offseason trades. He is already spending picks in the 2027 draft to try to make this year’s team better. You can’t be upset that your team didn’t go “all-in” when they have bought at the deadline every year since 2019 and they spend picks two and three years down the road because they spent picks in the current year’s draft at previous deadlines. Holland has been plenty aggressive at the deadline in his time as Oilers GM. He was in on every big name player available at this deadline. He might not have gotten the players you wanted, but you can’t say he wasn’t trying to make the Oilers better at this deadlne. I would be more upset that he hasn’t done anything to recoup any assets that could be used in future trades than at him not going “all-in”.
Related: Oilers 2024 Trade Deadline Wrap
It’s annoying that the Golden Knights are seemingly in on every single big name player that becomes available, but that’s an organizational philosophy that has worked for them since their inception. The 2026 NHL draft will be their tenth draft. They currently only have two of their first ten first round picks in their organization: Brendan Brisson (2020) and their 2024 first round pick. They use picks to acquire players that help them in the short-term, and they trade them away once they are done with them (think Max Pacioretty) to restock their tradable assets. It’s annoying as hell, but it works for them.
The Golden Knights used LTIR to make trades that did help them win a Stanley Cup at last year’s trade deadline, and they used LTIR to add impactful players that will help their team now and down the road. It remains to be seen whether or not the hired guns will help the Golden Knights repeat as Stanley Cup chmapions though. The teams that are the most aggressive at the deadline rarely win championships.