May 22, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will play the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final. This will be the ninth time that these two franchises will have met in the playoffs. The Oilers and the former version of the Stars, the Minnesota North Stars, met twice. The Oilers swept the Northstars in the 1984 Conference Final, and the Northstars beat the Oilers in the 1991 Conference Final. 

The Oilers and Stars would go on to meet in five consecutive seasons from 1997 until 2001, and then again in 2003. The Oilers won the 1997 series thanks to a Todd Marchant Game 7 overtime winner, but the Stars have won the last five playoff matchups between these two teams.

Tale of the Tape

Regular Season Record

Oilers: 1-2

Stars: 2-0-1

Edmonton Oilers

49-27-6, 104 points, 2nd place in Pacific Division

Goals For: 292 (4th)

Goals Against: 236 (10th)

PP%: 26.3% (4th)

PK%: 79.5% (15th)

Starting Goalie: Stuart Skinner (36-16-5, .905 sv%, 2.62 GAA)

Leading Scorers: Connor McDavid (132 pts), Zach Hyman (54 G)

Playoffs:

Goals For Per Game: 3.83 (2nd)

Goals Against Per Game: 2.75 (8th)

PP%: 37.5% (1st)

PK%: 91.4% (1st)

Starting Goalie: Stuart Skinner (7-2-1, .881 sv%, 2.87 GAA)

Leading Scorers: Leon Draisaitl (24 pts), Zach Hyman (11 G)

The Oilers enter this series with only two days rest after a hard fought seven game series with the Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers have had somewhat slow starts to both of their series this spring, but they have also finished strong in both series. They will be aiming to get off to a better start in Dallas this round. They appeared to have found their A game at the end of the Canucks series, and they will try to bring that form into the Conference Final.

Related: Series Wrap: Oilers emerge victorious over Canucks

Dallas Stars

52-21-9, 113 points, 1st place in Central Division

Goals For: 294 (3rd)

Goals Against: 232 (T-8th)

PP%: 24.2% (6th)

PK%: 82% (8th)

Starting Goalie: Jake Oettinger (35-14-4, .905 sv%, 2.72 GAA)

Leading Scorers: Jason Robertson (80 pts), Wyatt Johnston (32 G)

Playoffs:

Goals For Per Game: 2.92 (7th)

Goals Against Per Game: 2.38 (4th)

PP%: 29% (4th)

PK%: 69.2% (11th)

Starting Goalie: Jake Oettinger (8-4-1, .918 sv%, 2.09 GAA)

Leading Scorers: Miro Heiskanen (13 pts), Wyatt Johnston (7 G)

The Oilers vs Canucks series got started later than the other second round series did, and it was the only one to go the distance. Therefore, the Stars ended up with a six day break after defeating the Colorado Avalanche in six games in the second round. The Stars started that series strong by getting big leads in Games 1 and 2, and winning Games 3 and 4 by hefty margins. Like the Oilers did in their second round series, they blew a three-goal lead and lost in Game 1. Unlike the Oilers, they limped their way home by losing Game 5 and escaping Game 6 in double overtime.

Five-on-Five Play

Advantage: DAL

The Oilers and Stars were both elite five-on-five teams during the regular season. The Oilers had narrow advantages in the goal differential (4th vs 6th), goals percentage (5th vs 6th), and expected goals percentage (1st vs 4th) metrics according to Moneypuck. They both scored 194 five-on-five goals, but the Oilers actually allowed eight fewer five-on-five goals than the Stars did.

However, the results in the playoffs have been a totally different story. The Stars have the advantage in all three of the metrics that I have shared here. The Oilers have fallen from first place in expected goals percentage in the regular season to tenth (48.79%) in the playoffs. 

The positive for the Oilers is that they have scored the most five-on-five goals in these playoffs (28). The Stars have scored the sixth most (22), but they have also scored the fewest goals above expected (-9.16) in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Oilers have scored the most goals above expected in the playoffs by a country mile. These numbers suggest that the Oilers are overachieving with five-on-five goal scoring, and the Stars are underachieving. 

The Stars still have the second best five-on-five goals percentage and the second best five-on-five expected goals percentage in the playoffs despite under achieving in five-on-five goal scoring. That can be explained by the fact that they also lead the playoffs in goals allowed above expected (-7.81), which means that they have allowed far fewer goals than they should have allowed. The Oilers rank fourteenth in the playoffs in this metric, which suggests that they have allowed more goals than they should have based on the way that they’re defending.

The Stars are getting the edge in five-on-five play based on recency bias. Their high goals and expected goals percentages and the Oilers’ low expected goals percentage are signs that the Stars are playing better at five-on-five. The Oilers have the potential for much improved five-on-five play based on their regular season performance though.

Special Teams

Advantage: EDM

The Oilers enter the Conference Final with both the league’s leading powerplay and penalty kill. That automatically gives them the advantage. The Oilers powerplay unit is the same group that set an all-time league record for powerplay potency in 2022-23, although Evan Bouchard was only the quarterback on that unit for the portion of that season after the trade deadline. The Oilers powerplay is their greatest weapon. The Oilers penalty kill is clearly hot right now. However, we have seen stretches where it totally falls apart as well. It will need to continue to hold firm in the Conference Final.

The Stars powerplay is also quite strong. They finished sixth in the league during the regular season, and they are fourth in the playoffs. Their issue is going to be their penalty kill. Their eighth ranked penalty killing unit from the regular season is struggling mightily in these playoffs, operating at just a 69.2% clip (11th).

Goaltending

Advantage: DAL

Jake Oettinger is a bigger brand name among NHL goaltenders than Stuart Skinner. Nobody is going to argue that Oettinger is not the best goaltender in this series. He’s playing superbly with a .918 save percentage and a 2.09 goals against average in the playoffs.

Skinner played to a .793 save percentage before being pulled in Game 3 of the second round. He did improve to .906 in Games 6 and 7 against the Canucks, but even Skinner’s improved performance isn’t enough to match Oettinger in these playoffs.

Keys to Victory

Oilers:

The Oilers will need to rely on their strengths in this series. They have the two best hockey players on the planet, and they will both need to be their dominant selves for the Oilers to beat the Stars.

The Oilers powerplay is the team’s most dangerous weapon, and the Oilers will need to capitalize on a slumping Stars penalty kill to win this series. Continuing to overachieve in five-on-five goal scoring will certainly help the cause as well.

The Stars really only use five defencemen. Miro Heiskanen is second in the playoffs with 29:12 played per game. The Stars do have a couple of overtime games, but it’s fair to say that they rely on Heiskanen heavily. The Oilers need to make his life difficult by hitting him every chance they get.

The Oilers will need at least league average goaltending from Skinner if they have plans of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final.

Finally, the Oilers need to not beat themselves. They won’t be able to afford any sloppy mistakes against the Stars.

Stars:

Oettinger will be a huge factor in this series. If he continues his stellar play, then the Stars will likely win. 

The Stars are the deeper team. They had eight 20 goal scorers in the regular season compared to just five for the Oilers. The Stars will be in tough to win the five-on-five scoring battle with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they could tilt the series in their favour by taking advantage of the Oilers’ bottom six.

The Stars are also the faster team. The Oilers struggle against faster teams. The Stars will need to utilize their speed to get in on the forecheck to make it difficult for the Oilers to control the puck, especially in the Oilers zone.

X Factors

Oilers: Dylan Holloway

Hollway stole a top six spot on the Oilers. He earned it with his speed, tenacity, physicality, and defensive responsibility. Holloway also has three goals in the playoffs, which puts him in a tie for sixth on the team and fourth on his own among Oiler forwards. He even has more goals than McDavid right now! Continued strong play from Holloway would give the Oilers the luxury of being able to split up McDavid and Draisaitl and of having two legitimate scoring lines. It would also allow the bottom six to be bolstered by Adam Henrique once he returns from injury.

Stars: Joe Pavelski

Pavelski has a long history of strong playoff performances. However, he only has four points in the Stars’ thirteen playoff games this spring. It’s clear that he has lost a step, but he has always been known for his hands around the net. Pavelski is famous for his ability to score tip-in goals. Pavelski could be a difference maker against the Oilers’ bottom six.

Injuries

Oilers: Adam Henrique (ankle) will not play in Game 1, but he will be available in this series. Evander Kane (sports hernia) continues to not practice as he has done throughout the playoffs, but his availability is not in question.

Stars: Roope Hintz (upper body) left Game 4 of their second round series and missed the final two games of that series. Jani Hakanpää (lower body) has not played since March 16. Head coach Pete DeBoer has said that both players are listed as “day-to-day”.

Wrap

Neither team has a recent Stanley Cup to show for their efforts, but these truly are the best two teams in the Western Conference right now. The Oilers are in the Western Conference Final for the second time in three seasons. The Stars are here for the second consecutive season and for the third time in the last five seasons. The Oilers and the Stars had the best records in the Western Conference after January 1, 2024. This is a rare showdown between the best two teams available.

These teams are built differently. The Oilers are top heavy with the world’s two best players. The 2023-24 Oilers are the first team to ever have three players with more than 20 points in the first two rounds of a playoff season (Draisaitl – 24, McDavid – 21, Evan Bouchard – 20). Bouchard’s 20 points through two rounds are the most ever by an NHL defenceman. The Oilers also have the leading goal scorer through the first two rounds of these playoffs (Zach Hyman – 11).

Meanwhile, the Stars are built with depth in mind. The Stars have a strong, veteran leadership core, and they have drafted and developed incredibly well. Long-time captain Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin represent the old guard. Veterans like Pavelski, Matt Duchene, Ryan Suter, Chris Tanev, and Evgenii Dadonov only serve to add strength to the group. They have a new wave of young talent led by Heiskanen, Oettinger, Hintz, and Jason Robertson. They have an even younger wave of young players in Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley, and Logan Stankoven that are making massive contributions.

I would be remiss if I failed to mention the angst that the fans of these two teams have for each other from their string of consecutive playoff meetings in the late 90s and early 2000s. That hate moreso lies within Oilers fans because the Stars have won the last five series the two teams have played. This would be an incredible series without the historic rivalry, but the rivalry only adds to it.

Game 1 is on Thursday night at Reunion Arena (oops, I mean the American Airlines Center). Enjoy the series!