June 30, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

It’s the Canada Day long weekend. July 1 represents the official start of a new NHL calendar year. It’s the day where old contracts expire and unrestricted free agents are allowed to sign with new teams. We know there will be fireworks around the NHL during the day and across Canada at night.

Edmonton Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson doesn’t want to be the team’s new general manager, but he’s going to be assuming the role through the start of the free agency period. He has said that he wants to bring as many of the Oilers’ impending UFAs as he can, but it’s not likely that all of them will be back.

Here’s where the team stands from a cap perspective on June 30, 2024:

Player Cap Hit Total: $68.5M

Total: $75,066,667

The Oilers bought out Jack Campbell and re-signed Calvin Pickard to be the team’s backup over the weekend. Those moves netted the Oilers $2.9 million in cap space for next season.

Related: Oilers buy out Jack Campbell

Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg were both issued qualifying offers on Sunday, which means that both players will be back with the Oilers organization. Holloway forced his way onto the playoff roster and he was second in the league in hits with 86 hits. Broberg entered the playoffs in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final, and he played admirably well in the remainder of the playoffs. I would imagine that both players will carry a cap hit of approximately $1 million for next season.

The #Oilers have issued qualifying offers to defencemen Philip Broberg & Noel Hoefenmayer as well as forwards James Hamblin, Dylan Holloway & Raphael Lavoie.

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) June 30, 2024

The penalty killing duo of Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown was fantastic during the playoffs. Janmark contributed with four points, including a goal in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Janmark was great on the forecheck as well. Brown scored a shorthanded goal and set up two others in the final two rounds of the playoffs. Brown appears to be past the knee injury that cost him essentially all of the 2022-23 season and that slowed him down significantly last season. I expect Janmark to sign a one-year, $1 million deal with the Oilers. Brown’s heart belongs in Edmonton, and I expect that he will sign here as well. The number will be challenging because Brown had a terrible regular season, but an encouraging playoffs. It won’t be the $4 million that he ended up with in total last season, but it also won’t be the league minimum cap hit.

Related: Janmark and Brown appreciation Post

Adam Henrique and Warren Foegele are expected to get an AAV of approximately $4 million for next season. If the Oilers were to sign the four players I’ve mentioned above for $1 million each, then they would have just enough room to sign Henrique and Foegele at $4 million apiece. They would be stuck with an active roster of 20 players if they were to do that. Unfortunately, I don’t see both of these players coming back.

Henrique was a decent addition to the Oilers for the stretch drive and the playoff run. He got nine points in 22 games for the Oilers down the stretch, and another six points in fifteen games in the playoffs, including a goal in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. Henrique centered a third line with Janmark and Brown that played a key role in pushing the Stanley Cup Final to seven games. Henrique’s versatility makes him a compelling player for the Oilers.

Foegele had a career year in 2023-24. He scored twenty goals and got 41 points in 82 games in the regular season. Foegele struggled in the early rounds of the playoffs and found himself as a healthy scratch in the Western Conference Final, but he turned it up in the Stanley Cup Final. He scored the first Oilers goal at Rogers Place in the Stanley Cup Final, and he got five points in the final four games of the series. My gut tells me that it would be a mistake to overpay for Foegele based on a career year at the age of 28. Foegele provided great value for the Oilers as a middle six forward that mostly played in the top six last season, but I don’t expect that to continue. Foegele’s production in 2023-24 was his ceiling, and the Oilers need a top six winger whose floor would match Foegele’s production from last season.

Related: Foegele’s Stanley Cup Final resurgence

The Oilers do need a fourth line centre, and Sam Carrick fits the bill. The Oilers could put Ryan McLeod there if Henrique was to re-sign, but having a true fourth line centre like Carrick around would give the team flexibility. I would consider bringing Carrick back on a cheap deal, but I expect the Oilers to get a fourth line centre in the open market if Carrick doesn’t come back.

The other forwards listed are depth forwards. Corey Perry didn’t produce much offence for the Oilers and he’s 39 years old. Sam Gagner is beloved and I have all the time in the world for him, even as a minor leaguer. Gagner didn’t get into a playoff game, which says a lot about how the organization feels about his ability to contribute at the NHL level though.

Then there’s Vincent Desharnais, the tower of power on the back end. The friendly giant has an opportunity to get paid in the open market. Frank Seravalli doesn’t think Desharnais will get more than $1.5 million per season on the open market, and I think that’s a fair assessment. I would definitely bring Desharnais back at that price. He’s a great penalty killer and a solid third pairing defenceman.

Signing everybody would round out the 2024-25 Oilers roster. However, that would leave no room for improvement. There are two ways that I see to improve the Oilers in free agency.

The more important yet more complicated way is to shore up the defence. That would involve making at least one change. Cody Ceci himself is not a terrible defenceman, and his $3.25 million cap hit is actually reasonable for a second pairing defenceman. The problem is that he isn’t a good fit with Darnell Nurse, and he becomes expensive if he’s stuck on the third pairing. The underlying numbers say that he makes every one of his partners worse.

Moving Ceci would create $3.25 million in cap space. If no defenceman is brought in to replace him, then the Oilers would have to rely on the combination of Kulak, Broberg, and potentially Desharnais if he re-signs to handle second pairing minutes. Kulak can handle himself there, but he’s better on a third pairing. Broberg will get to that level, but he isn’t there yet and he’s far better on his strong side. Desharnais is over his head in a second pairing role if he’s there for any length of time, but he did acquit himself nicely in limited time with Nurse last season.

Ideally, a right-handed defenceman would be brought in to replace Ceci. The top right-handed defencemen on the list are already off the market with Chris Tanev’s rights being traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Brett Pesce reportedly heading to the New Jersey Devils, and Alexandre Carrier reportedly on the verge of extending with the Nashville Predators. There are options like Brandon Montour, Sean Walker, and Matt Roy out there; but the challenge there is the money. Kulak might have to move in addition to Ceci to create enough space to sign a high quality UFA right-handed defenceman. 

There are also riskier options like John Klingberg, Matt Dumba, Tony DeAngelo, Justin Schultz, and Kevin Shattenkirk out there. Nurse would benefit from being paired with a good puck moving defenceman; but none of the players I just listed as risks are great defensively.

The other area of need is a winger for Leon Draisaitl. We are entering the final year of Draisaitl’s contract. Draisaitl has never had the benefit of having a steady and consistent top six winger on his line. He does get to play with McDavid a lot, but when they are apart, it’s a rotating cast of players who are not proven top six wingers like Foegele, McLeod, Holloway, and Janmark. Draisaitl has had Evander Kane a lot, but the numbers say that they aren’t a fantastic duo. Getting Draisaitl a legitimate top six winger would go a long way towards getting to sign an extension with the Oilers.

The Oilers aren’t getting Jake Guentzel or Sam Reinhart, and Steven Stamkos is a long shot; but there are some options out there. Jonathan Marchessault might be just out of the price range, but he would be a great pickup for the Oilers. Viktor Arvidsson is an intriguing option. He’s fast and tenacious. His issue is staying healthy though. Tyler Toffoli is another great option. He’s a pure sniper. Tuevo Teravainen, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Jeff Skinner could also be good options. Players like Nikolaj Ehlers and Martin Necas would be nice trade options, but the Oilers don’t have the necessary assets to pull either one of those players away from their respective teams.

Jake DeBrusk is a popular choice that I’m not in love with because a team will be paying for the one truly good year he had two years ago. I look at players like DeBrusk, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, David Perron, Jack Roslovic, Anthony Duclair, and Daniel Sprong as secondary possibilities that are either overvalued or simply not quite productive enough for what I believe the Oilers need. 

If the Oilers are to sign a top six winger, then it means that they would have to sacrifice both Henrique and Foegele. I would personally make that sacrifice for a legitimate winger for Draisaitl.

Jackson is getting the chance to put his stamp on the Oilers. He is relying on his newly strengthened hockey operations team to help him out during this process, but he will ultimately be the one making the decisions in the early stages of the free agency period. I’m curious to see how aggressive he chooses to be on Monday.