August 14, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

The St. Louis Blues have put the Edmonton Oilers in a tremendously difficult spot by signing their two prized young players, Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg, to offer sheets on Tuesday in an unprecedented move. The ball is now in the court of Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson and his new General Manager and Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations Stan Bowman. The Oilers have until next Tuesday to match the offers.

Related: Blues sign Broberg and Holloway to offer sheets

Bob Stauffer shared this little tidbit of information on Tuesday’s edition of Oilers Now: “…I can 100% guarantee you that upper management, Ken Holland was the general manager at that time, as far back as December and January were INSTRUCTED, INSTRUCTED, at the top levels of the Oilers organization to get Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg signed to contract extensions, especially in January when both players were in the minors…”. This tells me that the organization at least values Holloway and Broberg. We’re about to find out how much they value them though.

Holloway and Broberg were obviously not extended in January. Stauffer went on to talk about how a lot of teams will make an effort to let top prospects buried in the minors like Holloway and Broberg were in January that they are a part of the organization’s plans for the future. I’m not sure if any discussion of the sort happened between the Oilers and these two players or not.

Elliottte Friedman dropped a surprise 32 Thoughts podcast on Wednesday morning, and he shared that Broberg’s plan was always to wait until this summer to begin contract discussions. Broberg and his agent reportedly sought permission to explore a trade back in December 2023 due to frustration over Broberg’s lack of playing time.

Holloway was in a similar situation where he was buried in the minors until late in the season, so I’m not sure why his thought process would’ve been any different than Broberg’s. I don’t blame either player for not signing a contract back in January. I don’t think either player expected to sign offer sheets for the values that they were offered by the Blues, so it worked out nicely for them.

As for the Oilers though, there was only one person above Holland in the hockey operations department in January, and that was Jackson. The person above Jackson is Oilers owner Daryl Katz. The instruction to extend Broberg and Holloway in January had to have come from Jackson or Katz. Thus, Jackson was either pushing to get those players signed, or he had instruction to get them signed from above him. He did not get those deals signed while he was the acting GM from late June until mid July.

Jackson hasn’t said anything about Holloway this summer. We know that Holloway had a stellar playoff run where he scored five goals and added two assists while playing in all 25 of the Oilers’ playoff games in 2024. He bounced around the lineup, but he did get meaningful time with Leon Draisaitl. Holloway scored on Draisaitl’s line, and he scored while playing lower in the lineup as well.

Holloway finished second in the entire NHL in hits with 86 hits in those 25 playoff games. Holloway’s speed is a tremendous asset, and his willingness to get in on the forecheck and to be physical will allow him to keep an NHL job even if he isn’t scoring goals.

Holloway is just getting started. I’m not sold that he will ever be a legitimate top six forward, but I view him as a middle six forward. A third liner that can make cameo appearances in the top six if needed. The Oilers are one of the oldest teams in the league, and the team just lost Ryan McLeod, another young speedster. The Oilers would become a much slower team without Holloway. We also have to consider that the Oilers are thin on surefire left wing prospects, which means that it will be a while before they get another young left winger on the roster. While the cap hit is a bit high for Holloway, I feel that it isn’t an entirely delusional cap hit and that the Oilers should match the offer.

Jackson was asked about Broberg playing on the right side during his media availability after the start of the free agency period on July 1, 2024. “We’re going to find room for [Broberg] to play, so that will sort of sort itself out as we get through into camp… Somebody will probably have to move over to the right side. It might be [Broberg]” said Jackson.

He also mentioned that Broberg played on the right side in the playoffs, mostly with Darnell Nurse, and that he played well. The pairing had a 4-2 five-on-five goal share in the Stanley Cup Final; but they also had a 30.21% expected goals for percentage. That 4-2 goal share is not sustainable with a 30.21% xGF.

I like that Jackson said that they were going to find a spot for Broberg. The original plan was for all six of the defencemen that played in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final to start the season with the Oilers, which would have involved a lefty playing on the right side. Jackson’s comments on July 1, 2024 hinted that Broberg would be the one to play on the right side. That’s a poor plan in my opinion. The reality is that Broberg isn’t strong playing on the right side. However, the Oilers have Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, and Brett Kulak on the left side. The left side is full, so they decided to throw the kid over to his off side.

Kulak can also play the right side, but he prefers the left side. Ekholm has played on the right side a little bit in his career, but he’s more effective on the left side. My thought would be to put an established veteran in the more difficult position of playing their off side and putting the younger Broberg in a spot where he has a better chance of succeeding, but that’s just me.

The Oilers are currently $7,225,541 over the salary cap including the offer sheets to Holloway and Broberg. Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak are the two most likely players to be moved if the Oilers choose to keep both Holloway and Broberg.

The other thing to consider is that the Oilers don’t have a pick until the third round of the 2025 draft. The Oilers would receive a 2025 third round pick for Holloway and a 2025 second round pick for Broberg. Those two picks would give the Oilers ammunition to add at the 2025 trade deadline or to further bolster their depleted prospect cupboard. Losing two former first round picks for a second round pick and a third round pick would be a tough pill to swallow though.

I honestly don’t know where the Oilers will go with this decision. There are pros and cons to every possible outcome. I’m going to examine everything in pieces this week, so stay tuned to the Heavy Hockey Network (@HeavyHockeyNet) and be sure to follow me on X (@lotsryan) for all of the analysis.