August 19, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

I wrote a long piece about the salary cap implications of the potential scenarios involving Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg last week. That was before Sunday’s trades happened, so the math in that piece has all changed.

Related: Deep Dive: Oilers cap scenarios with Holloway and Broberg

However, I do need to note an error that I made. I was remembering back to the 2022-23 season when the Edmonton Oilers had Oscar Klefbom and Mike Smith heading to LTIR for the entire season. The Oilers were MILES above the salary cap with those two players on it. My recollection of what happened is that their cap hits were added to the league’s salary cap to come up with the team’s new upper limit for that season.

It turns out that I misremembered. I’ll be the first to admit when I make a mistake, which has happened often with salary cap and LTIR related pieces that I’ve written in the past. I enjoy writing those kinds of pieces because I learn a lot about the system and it challenges me in a different way than I’m used to being challenged, but mistakes happen sometimes.

Here’s the related rule from PuckPedia’s website:

While Evander Kane’s situation is technically still up in the air, all signs point to him having surgery and being placed on LTIR for a period of months. The Oilers have two choices for how they can approach the situation. They can either get themselves as close to the $88 million salary cap as possible prior to putting Kane on LTIR, or they can try to exceed the salary cap by as close to Kane’s cap hit ($5,125,000) as they possibly can.

Given the players that the Oilers have currently, excluding Holloway and Broberg, the Oilers sit at $87,940,834 with an active roster of 23 players. That breakdown is below:

Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125M)	McDavid ($12.5M)	Hyman ($5.5M)
Skinner ($3M)	Draisaitl ($8.5M)	Arvidsson ($5.5M)
Kane ($5.125M)	Henrique ($3M)	Brown ($1M)
Janmark ($1.45M)	Ryan ($900k)	*Perry ($1.15M)
	Savoie ($886,667)	Podkolzin ($1M)

Ekholm ($6M)	Bouchard ($3.9M)
Nurse ($9.25M)	Emberson ($950k)
Kulak ($2.75M)	Brown ($1M)
	Stecher ($787,500)

Skinner ($2.6M)

Pickard ($1M)

Total: $87,940,834

That puts the Oilers $59,166 below the salary cap. The Oilers could climb closer to the salary cap by waiving Troy Stecher in favour of Max Wanner (+$40,833). They could also have Roby Jarventie on the roster in place of Matthew Savoie, but Savoie needs to be on there because of his performance bonus. The closest that the Oilers could realistically expect to get to the salary cap is $18,333.

The other alternative would be to try to exceed the $88 million cap by as close to Kane’s cap hit as possible. That’s where Holloway and Broberg come into the equation.

This potential roster including Holloway, Broberg, and Savoie (needed because of his performance bonus) exceeds the cap by $292 less than Kane’s cap hit:

Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125M)	McDavid ($12.5M)	Hyman ($5.5M)
Skinner ($3M)	Draisaitl ($8.5M)	Arvidsson ($5.5M)
Kane ($5.125M)	Henrique ($3M)	Brown ($1M)
Janmark ($1.45M)	Savoie ($886,667)	*Perry ($1.15M)
Holloway ($2,290,457)		Podkolzin ($1M)

Ekholm ($6M)	Bouchard ($3.9M)
Nurse ($9.25M)	Emberson ($950k)
Kulak ($2.75M)	Brown ($1M)
Broberg ($4,580,917)

Skinner ($2.6M)

Pickard ($1M)

Total: $93,124,708

This 22-man active roster would maximize the potential LTIR relief from Kane.

If the Oilers were to only keep Holloway, then the closest they could get to $93,125,000 is $90,231,291. If the Oilers were to only keep Broberg, then the closest they could get to $93,125,000 is $91,734,251. Those numbers would represent cap limits if Kane was to be placed on LTIR.

There are two challenges that would present themselves should Kane need to be activated from LTIR at any point during the season. 

One is that the team can’t accrue cap space during the season if they operate in LTIR. The only way to create cap space at the trade deadline or to activate Kane would be to send players to the AHL or to trade them away.

Related: Oilers acquire Podkolzin

If the Oilers don’t use LTIR at all, then they can accrue cap space; although they won’t accrue enough cap space to do much more than add a depth player at the deadline (if that) if they spend close to the salary cap for the duration of the season. They would have to play with 20 or 21 players on the active roster to maximize the amount of trade deadline cap space that they could use.

The second is that they would need to activate Kane at some point if he was to become healthy and able to play. They could do that without a problem if they were to keep only Holloway.

They would have to play shorthanded to activate Kane if they were to keep only Broberg. They would be able to use an emergency recall after playing one game shorthanded in that situation.

If the Oilers were to keep both Holloway and Broberg, then the Oilers would not be able to get back under the $88 million salary cap to activate Kane without making a trade. They would need to bury five players with cap hits of $1 million or more to avoid a trade in that scenario. Then they would need to play shorthanded by two players for a game to be able to use an emergency recall.

Related: Oilers trade Ceci to the Sharks

All things are still possible. This new Oilers regime keeps their cards close to their chest, which is fantastic in my opinion. I like being surprised. Many insiders are suggesting that the Oilers will let both players walk. That would give them the most cap flexibility for the coming season, and they would get two picks in 2025. They currently only have a sixth and a seventh round pick in the 2025 draft.

Choosing one player or the other would be possible regardless of what happens with Kane. Keeping both players would either require Kane to miss the entire regular season, or another trade at some point during the regular season. Brett Kulak would be the most obvious player to move in such a scenario given the Oilers’ organizational depth on defence, which would be especially true if Broberg was to be retained.

The Oilers have until 7:30 AM on Tuesday morning to match the offer. They appear to be making Holloway, Broberg, the St. Louis Blues, and the fan bases of both teams sweat before announcing their decision.