Making sense of Monday’s Oilers roster moves
October 8, 2024
The summer of discount shopping for the Oilers
October 9, 2024Kane goes onto LTIR after all
EDMONTON, AB - OCTOBER 22 Edmonton Oilers Left Wing Evander Kane (91) lines up a hit on the boards in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the St Louis Blues on October 22, 2022 at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)
October 8, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg
Just as Monday’s roster moves suggested, the Edmonton Oilers placed Evander Kane on LTIR on Tuesday. Kane had surgery to fix both adductors, two hernias, and two abdominal muscle tears on September 20, 2024. The Oilers said that Kane’s recovery timeline will be “a minimum of five to six months”.
That specific language is important because it leaves room for error. Kane could be ready to play in five to six months, but his recovery could also take longer than that. March 20, 2025 will mark six months from Kane’s surgery. The Oilers play their last regular season game on April 16, 2025. It’s entirely possible that Kane’s recovery will take an extra 27 days above and beyond the five to six month minimum timeline that was initially announced by the team.
Thoughts of Mark Stone have been in the minds of Oilers fans since Kane’s injuries first came to light. Stone has been placed on LTIR part way through each of the last three seasons, only to be reactivated at the end of the regular season. He played in Game 1 of the playoffs in the two seasons that the Vegas Golden Knights made the playoffs.
Related: Vegas Golden Knights and LTIR: Part 1 – Conspiracy Theories and Potential Solutions
It sounds easy enough to just leave Kane on LTIR until the playoffs, but there are rules that have to be followed. This excerpt was taken directly from the NHL CBA’s Article 50.10 (d) about players with long-term injuries:
“If, however, the League wishes to challenge the determination of a Club physician that a Player is unfit to play for purposes of the Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception, the League and the NHLPA shall promptly confer and jointly select a neutral physician, who shall review the Club physician’s determination regarding the Player’s fitness to play.”
I’m unaware of any situation where the league called for a neutral physician to check on a player’s health status, but that doesn’t mean that the possibility of being challenged on it doesn’t exist.
If the Oilers wanted to circumvent the cap by ensuring that Kane stays on LTIR for the entire season regardless of his actual health status, then an obvious tell would be to use that LTIR relief to improve the roster now. That would be a bold and stupid strategy that would be entirely transparent.
The part of Oilers GM Stan Bowman’s plan that he appears to be sticking to is waiting until closer to the trade deadline to make any major additions. There will be more information about Kane’s recovery by the March 7, 2025 NHL trade deadline. The Oilers will also have an idea of where they sit in the playoff race by then, and they will have plenty of information about the players on their current roster by then.
Bowman doesn’t have a crystal ball, so he doesn’t know exactly how long Kane’s recovery will take. He needed to prepare the roster for the possibility that Kane will return before the end of the season. He initially claimed that he did not want to put Kane on LTIR because of this part of the ruel as noted on PuckPedia:
“While on LTIR, Cap Space is no longer accrued, meaning any portion of the LTIR pool not used cannot be used later.”
However, Daniel Nugent-Bowman claims that the Oilers will be able to accrue cap space during the season because they were under the league’s $88 million salary cap when Kane was placed on LTIR.
As you can see in Nugent-Bowman’s post, the Oilers also sent Matthew Savoie and Cam Wright down to the Bakersfield Condors on Tuesday. Those moves were entirely expected despite Oilers fans’ excitement about Savoie. His presence on the season opening roster was always about making sure that his performance bonus doesn’t get tacked onto his cap hit if he gets called up while Kane is on LTIR this season.
The Oilers also signed Travis Dermott to a one-year contract with a league minimum cap hit of $775,000. It’s a two-way deal with an AHL salary of $500,000. He deserves the contract. He outplayed Josh Brown, who was rightfully waived and sent to Bakersfield. Dermott’s versatility makes him an ideal seventh defenceman.
These roster moves leave the Oilers with $1,063,719 in cap space with an active roster of 21 players (12 F, 7 D, 2 G). While I haven’t seen Nugent-Bowman’s claim about the Oilers being able to accrue cap space confirmed in writing anywhere, I feel like the Oilers wouldn’t only be carrying 21 players if they weren’t able to accrue cap space.
Assuming no roster changes happen between now and the trade deadline (which has a 0% chance of happening), the Oilers will have accrued $835,779 in cap space by the trade deadline. That would allow them to add up to $3,900,303 in full season cap hits at the deadline because those contracts coming in at that time would be prorated. If Kane is indeed expected to be on the LTIR for the entire regular season, then the Oilers would be able to add approximately $8 million in cap hits at the trade deadline.
My gut is telling me that Kane won’t play in the regular season and that the Oilers will try to be aggressive at the trade deadline.
1 Comment
Making sense of Oiler roster moves: it’s only one game but Broberg 20+ minutes top 4D, Holloway 16+ minutes top 6F and both with one pt. Stan and Jeff chose to sign 39 year old Perry and AHL D Josh Brown instead? Give me strength.