January 10, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers announced that Evander Kane underwent successful knee surgery on Friday. The surgery took place on Thursday. The team stated that Kane’s recovery time for this knee procedure would be four to eight weeks, which would put a pause on his recovery from the abdominal surgery that he had in September.

Kane gave an update on his health and his recovery on Friday. He called the surgery a knee scope, which is a minor procedure. He explained that the typical timeline for an NHL player to return to the lineup after a knee scope is four to eight weeks, but that timeline is different for Kane since he is also recovering from a different surgery. He expects to be able to continue with his rehabilitation process for his abdominal surgery after letting the knee rest and recover for one to two weeks.

The big question on the minds of Oilers fans and pundits is about whether or not he will be fit to play at any point this season. Kane is optimistic about a potential return this season.

“I plan to be 100% and ready to go at some point this season.”

The release from the team indicating that Kane’s recovery would be paused for four to eight weeks as a result of this procedure certainly put doubt into people’s minds on Friday morning. While Kane expects to return this season, he was unable to provide a specific timeline for his return. He indicated that he has a timeline in his head that he was not willing to share with the media though. Regardless, his recovery timetable is unknown plus one to two weeks, which still makes it unknown.

It will be a week or two until he can resume his abdominal surgery rehab, which could possibly involve his legs. If his knee isn’t at full strength when he resumes his abdominal surgery rehab (which it won’t be), then it could potentially slow down his recovery process. It doesn’t seem like the knee injury will be a significant hindrance to Kane’s rehabilitation process, but it will definitely slow it down a little bit.

In an interview with Bob Stauffer on Friday, Oilers GM Stan Bowman said that they will have a better idea of where Kane is at in comparison to the original recovery timeline when the Four Nations Cup starts. That event starts on February 12, which is essentially one month away.

The trade deadline is approximately three weeks after the Four Nations Cup begins. Kane’s status could impact the Oilers’ trade deadline plans in a significant way. So could a “million dollar mistake” from Bowman.

Remember that Kane was placed on LTIR at the start of the season. That set the Oilers’ upper limit (or “salary cap” for simplicity’s sake) at $93,124,947. That was calculated by adding Kane’s $5,125,000 cap hit to the value of the Oilers’ opening day roster submission, which was $87,999,947.

Bowman did not know how long Kane would be out when the season started. His plan was to build a team that was under the league’s $88 million salary cap so that the team could accrue cap space to use at the trade deadline. They have been able to accrue a little bit of cap space this season by carrying fewer than the maximum number of players on the active roster.

A team’s cap hit is calculated by taking each player’s average annual value, dividing it by the number of the days in the season, multiplying it by the number of days that the player was on the team’s active roster for, and adding it up for each player that was on the active roster for at least one day during the NHL regular season. You also have to include any buyout penalties, retained salary, and overages.

The daily cap hit of a player is an important concept to understand. The trade deadline is 41 days before the end of the regular season, so teams acquiring players at the trade deadline will only be stuck with 41 days of the incoming player’s annual cap hit. That means that a team acquiring a player with a $1 million annual cap hit at the trade deadline would only be charged $213,542 against their cap spending. This is why teams wait so long to make trades.

If you add up the annual cap hits of every player on the roster on a given day, you get a current annual cap hit. Every day that current annual cap hit is below the league’s salary cap, the team accrues a little bit of cap space. Every little bit of cap space counts at the trade deadline.

However, things change when you factor LTIR into the equation. LTIR is meant to help teams in tough injury situations, but there are penalties for using it. One of those penalties is not being able to accrue cap space. The Oilers have been able to accrue cap space this season, with the exception of the days where the team has briefly gone over the salary cap due to recalls.

PuckPedia pointed out another penalty of using LTIR on Friday. A team does not get to prorate a player’s annual cap hit when acquiring a player while they are using LTIR. So a team that acquires a player with an annual cap hit of $1 million at the trade deadline while in LTIR gets charged $1 million against their cap spending.

https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1877803502677946549

PuckPedia’s post broke down the mistake that Bowman made, but it also left readers with a lot of questions. I’ll do my best to clear the air here, and I’ll hope to avoid muddying the issue further. Keep in mind that PuckPedia used approximate rounded numbers in the post for brevity and simplicity. I will use the actual numbers pulled from their site in my explanation.

PuckPedia says that the Oilers have a current annual cap hit of $88,054,167, which is the sum of the average annual cap hits of all the players on the current roster, buyouts, and overages. That is over the league’s $88 million salary cap, which means that they are already using a small portion of their LTIR pool. The Oilers set their upper limit at $93,124,947 when they placed Kane on LTIR. That means that the Oilers could add $5,070,780 in annual cap hits on top of the current roster.

PuckPedia currently has the Oilers’ projected cap hit as being $87,771,570. That figure includes the total of the daily cap hits for every player that has graced the Oilers active roster in the first 96 days of the regular season, the sum of the daily cap hits of the players currently on the active roster should they all stay on the active roster for the remaining 96 days of the regular season, and the team’s buyouts and overages.

PuckPedia also has the Oilers with $228,430 in cap space, which equates to $1,044,250 in annual cap hits that could be added at the trade deadline. That’s based on the current projected cap hit, which could change with future roster moves.

This logic would suggest that the Oilers could add the $1,044,250 in annual cap hits at the deadline, then add another $5,124,947 in annual cap hits at the deadline if Kane was set to miss the remainder of the season, thus bringing the total annual cap hits the Oilers could add to $6,169,197.

PuckPedia suggests that isn’t the way it works. PuckPedia also suggested that the best course of action for the Oilers would have been to accrue cap space, use that accrued cap space to acquire a player at the trade deadline, THEN put Kane on LTIR. That would’ve allowed the Oilers to use that $6,169,197 number.

$6,169,197 – $5,070,780 = $1,098,417

After reading PuckPedia’s post, fans are unhappy that Bowman’s decision to put Kane on LTIR at the start of the season has turned into a “million dollar mistake”. That $1,098,417 in annual cap hits could be the difference between adding an impact player at the trade deadline and not.

Remember that the current roster includes Josh Brown, who has only been on the roster for fourteen out of a possible 96 days so far this season. My gut tells me that Brown will be sent back to the AHL soon. That would take $1 million off the current annual cap hit, leaving the team at $87,054,167. That would leave them being able to add up to $6,070,380 at the trade deadline if Kane was to miss the rest of the season.

That means that in reality, Bowman would have left $98,417 in potential annual cap hits on the table IF Kane was to miss the entire regular season. The whole conversation will be for naught if Kane returns before the end of the season.

The Oilers needed a plan in case of injuries and call ups throughout the season. They could have used emergency recalls, but teams can only do that after playing a game short-handed. That would’ve been a choice that could’ve costed the team valuable points in the standings. Putting Kane on LTIR prevented them from being in a situation where they had to play a game short-handed. Is that worth potentially losing out on $98,417 in annual cap hits at the deadline? I would say so.

Related: Kane goes onto LTIR after all

Kane’s original recovery timeline as stated by the Oilers after Kane’s abdominal surgery was a minimum of five to six months. That surgery occurred on September 19, 2024, which would put his original estimated return sometime between February 19 and March 19, 2025.

That timeline has now been delayed by one to two weeks, which would move that date range to February 26 – April 3, 2025. The season ends on April 17, 2025. Could Kane’s recovery timeline be two weeks slower than anticipated? Absolutely. Even if Kane misses the entire regular season, I’m not going to be upset about missing out on $98,417 in potential annual cap hit. $6,070,380 would still add a lot of quality to the team.

I wish Kane nothing but the best in his recovery, but the selfish fan in me understands that his missing the regular season would put the Oilers in a spot where they could add a player that could drastically change the team’s fortunes not only this season, but for the next several years as well potentially.

Mattias Ekholm and Brett Kulak only have one year left on their contracts after this season. Ekholm will be 36 years old when his contract expires. Would the Oilers re-sign him with the expectation that he would play on the top pairing, or even in the top four going forward? I’d be wary of such a move.

Kulak will be 32 years old when his contract expires. He’s having an unbelievable season, and he’s been a stabilizing force on a blue line that had a lot of question marks entering the season. Would it be smart to re-sign a 32-year old career four or five guy with the expectation that he continues to perform at a high level in a top four role on his off side for multiple years to come? Once again, I’d be wary.

The reality is that the Oilers are going to need two more top four defencemen (one to replace Ekholm in the top four and one to replace Kulak on the right side in the top four) after next season. If they could get their hands on one now and have that player help during deep playoff runs in the next two springs, then it would be a big win for the Oilers. That won’t happen unless Kane misses the regular season, barring any other unforeseen moves being made (a Jeff Skinner trade perhaps).

Should Kane end up returning this season, then the Oilers would only be able to add approximately $1 million in annual cap hits at the trade deadline. Bowman said that “we’re still operating under the assumption that [Kane] will be back”. He also added that under that assumption, it’s likely “more fine tuning than it is making dramatic shifts to our team”. That tells me that his plan is to acquire a depth piece, but that could change if Kane’s prognosis changes for the worse before the trade deadline.

Only adding a depth piece at the trade deadline would be disheartening news for a lot of Oilers fans, especially after making the decisions they made this past summer to be able to accrue cap space to use at the trade deadline. That’s where we stand though. Honestly, that might be the smart move given the team’s significant lack of resources they could use to acquire impact players this season anyway.

For now though, let’s put the torches and pitchforks down. Once Brown gets sent back to the AHL, that “million dollar mistake” will be washed away. I’m going to sit back, watch the team play, and hope that Kane has a successful recovery regardless of when he returns to the lineup.