May 5, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will take on the Vegas Golden Knights in round two of the 2025 playoffs. It is the second all-time playoff meeting between these two teams. The Golden Knights won the first matchup against the Oilers in six games in 2023.

Tale of the tape (Regular season, Playoffs)

Vegas Golden Knights

The Golden Knights comfortably won the Pacific Division this season, but the wild card Minnesota Wild gave them a scare in round one. The Wild held a 2-1 series lead and had a chance to go up 3-1 had the overtime in Game 4 gone their way. The Wild outscored the Golden Knights 19-18 in the series. Both totals were in the bottom half of the teams in the first round, which suggests that the Golden Knights are playing low event hockey. They weren’t at their best in round one, but they have plenty more to give.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers were clearly the second best team in the first two games of their first round series, but they won four straight games after they got some momentum. The Golden Knights are the team that has a cup of tea before going to bed at a reasonable hour, and the Oilers are the team that wakes up in an alley with one shoe, no pants, and a hell of a story from the night before, which is ironic given the cities they each represent. The Oilers scored the most goals per game of any team in the first round, and they allowed the fourth most goals. Their wild nature will either hurt them or be the reason they win the series.

Five on Five Play: EVEN

If I was just basing this analysis on the regular season, then the Golden Knights would be the better five-on-five team. According to Moneypuck, they finished ninth in expected goals percentage and seventh in actual goals percentage at five-on-five in the regular season. They also had the sixth best five-on-five goal differential (+29). They were fifth in goals for (184) and eleventh in goals against (155).

Meanwhile, the Oilers were fourth in xGF%, but they couldn’t finish an ice cream cone. They were twentieth in the league in five-on-five shooting percentage (3.94%), which explains why they finished thirteenth in goals per 60 despite finishing second in expected goals for per 60. The Oilers were also 22nd in goals against (171), so they had a tougher time defending as well as finishing the chances they were creating.

The playoffs are a MUCH smaller sample size, but they’re the most recent sample. The Oilers were first in xGF% (62.15%) in the first round, and they were better than the Golden Knights in terms of actual goals share, goals for, and goal differential in round one. The Oilers’ shooting percentage went up to 3.99% (7th) in round one, which is a sign that their finishing is starting to come around. If that trend continues upwards, it will bode well for the Oilers because they are one of the best teams in the league at creating five-on-five scoring chances.

I would give a slight edge to the Oilers here based on the first round, but it’s a small sample size to base judgments on.

Special Teams: EVEN

The special teams battle in this series will be intriguing. The Golden Knights penalty kill was 26th in the regular season. We know what the Oilers powerplay can do when it gets hot. It wasn’t up to it’s usual standard during the regular season, but they started to heat up in round one (5/13, 38.5%). All five of their powerplay goals came in the final four games of the series against the Los Angeles Kings. They’re rolling entering the second round.

The Oilers penalty kill was middle of the pack in the regular season, but it was the worst among all teams in the first round. Most of the damage was done in Games 1, 2, and 3 when the Kings went 7/12 though. The Kings went 1/8 (12.5%) on the powerplay in Games 4, 5, and 6.

The Golden Knights had the second best powerplay in the league in the regular season, and they only slowed down by 0.7% in round one. I think the Oilers penalty kill will fare better against the Golden Knights than they did against the Kings because the Golden Knights tend to have their perimeter players at the faceoff dots or above, whereas the Kings had those outside players below the faceoff dots. The Oilers penalty kill is better suited to defending a more traditional umbrella-style powerplay like the Golden Knights run; but the Golden Knights powerplay has been great this season.

I would call the special teams pretty even in this series, but I would give the Oilers a slight edge based on how they ended the first round.

Goaltending: Advantage VGK

The Golden Knights getting the edge in goal is mostly based on Adin Hill’s regular season. He put up superior numbers to both Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner. However, Hill struggled in round one with an .880 save percentage and a 2.83 goals against average. The shooters he will face in round two will present more of a challenge than Wild shooters.

Pickard stole the net from Skinner in round one. He had a higher GAA than Hill in round one, but his save percentage was higher and he won all four games that he started. Pickard has been solid, but the fact remains that the Oilers backup is the expected starter for round two.

Keys to Victory

Golden Knights: Their hybrid zone defensive zone system gave the Oilers fits in 2023, and they will need to rely on that sound structure again to win this series. Their offensive stars will have to pick up the pace in round two. Having only two players with as many as five points in six games won’t get it done against the Oilers like it did with the Wild in round one.

Oilers: They will have to find a way to get to the middle of the ice against the Golden Knights’ defensive zone structure if they want to advance to the Conference Final for the second straight year.

Also, as is always the case with the Oilers, they can’t shoot themselves in the foot by making mistakes in the neutral zone or at the offensive blue line that lead to rush chances going the other way. The Golden Knights are a great counter attacking team, so the Oilers will have to be careful. 

Alex Pietrangelo was clearly frustrated with the physical treatment he got from the Oilers in 2023, as was demonstrated by his vicious baseball swing slash to Leon Draisaitl’s wrist in Game 4 of that series. More of the same will be needed from the likes of Zach Hyman (2nd in the playoffs in hits so far), Vasily Podkolzin, and Evander Kane.

X Factors

Golden Knights: Jack Eichel

It’s boring to say that the Golden Knights’ best player is their X factor, but it’s true. Eichel’s line with Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault was the reason they beat the Oilers in 2023. Eichel’s production will be a key factor if the Golden Knights win this series.

Oilers: Evan Bouchard

Bouchard has been brilliant offensively for the last three playoff seasons and counting, but the defensive issues were piling up alongside his goals in round one. He will be out there against the toughest competition that the Golden Knights can throw out there quite often. Bouchard will need to settle his game down against Eichel if the Oilers have eyes on winning this series.

Injuries

Golden Knights: Pavel Dorfeyev is listed as day-to-day.

Oilers: Mattias Ekholm will not play in round two according to Jason Gregor.

Wrap

I can’t help but to think back to Leon Draisaitl’s emotional post-game interview on May 14, 2023 when he faced the media on the verge of tears after losing to the Golden Knights. He famously said that it’s “Cup or bust” in his season-ending media availability after that series.

The Oilers have matured as a team since losing to the Golden Knights in the second round in 2023, and this series is a chance to prove that. This is the first time they will have a chance at redemption against a team that has previously beaten them in the playoffs in the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era. It’s a new test for the Oilers, and it’s one this veteran-laden group should be up for.

Games between the Oilers and the Golden Knights are usually close, tight checking games. This team definitely has the maturity and the composure to handle tight games in the playoffs, but they still have to go out and execute against one of the league’s best teams.

The Oilers will need to be better defensively than they were against the Kings. As electric as that first round series was, they need to do all of our hearts a favour and focus on rush defence and protecting the puck a bit more. They also need to start games better. Falling behind in five of six games will not lead to a series win against the Golden Knights like it did against the Kings.

It won’t be as wild as the first round was, but this series should be tremendous. The action gets started at 7:30 pm on Tuesday night from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Related: Oilers vs Kings IV: Series Wrap