June 7, 2026 by Ryan Lotsberg

Sportsnet’s Mark Spector reported that the Edmonton Oilers and Darnell Nurse are headed for a breakup at some point in the near future on Thursday. That might happen this summer while his full no-movement clause is still in effect, or it might happen next summer once it modifies to a ten-team no-trade list.

A lot of fans have been wishing for this breakup for many years. They complain that Nurse often gets lost in his own zone, has the puck bounce in off of him too often, goes down to try to block passing lanes when things go wrong, and ices the puck as a result of missed pass attempts. That’s not how you generally want a $9.25 million defenceman described.

Let’s call a spade a spade. Nurse’s 2025-26 season was a disaster. It was his worst statistical season in many, many years. 24 is his lowest point total since 2016-17, and his 44.35% five-on-five goals for percentage was his lowest since 2015-16 according to Natural Stat Trick.

I want to do a fair and honest dive into Nurse as a player. I want to see if there are consistent patterns in his underlying stats that reveal true strengths and weaknesses. From there, I’ll discuss who the best possible partner would be for him and how a new coach could potentially get the best out of him. Finally, I’ll assess whether it’s in the team’s best interest to move on from Nurse or not.

Data from All Three Zones gives us the best insight into specific skills. I’ll start on the defensive side of the puck, then I’ll move to the offensive side.

Nurse is often criticized for playing too large of a gap at the defensive blue line, which makes it easier for teams to enter the Oilers’ zone with control of the puck. The data from last season supports that. Nurse was targeted heavily and he was below average in every zone entry metric. His rush chances against were plentiful. 

We have to look beyond just last season to conduct a fair analysis of a player though. Nurse’s denials per 60 and denial percentage metrics have been below average in three of the last four seasons. There’s the evidence that says he doesn’t attack the blue line aggressively.

Nurse’s defensive zone puck touches per 60 and retrievals per 60 have dropped in each of the last two seasons. Is that because Nurse plays too passively at the blue line?

Interestingly, his botched retrievals per 60 Z scores have increased in each of the last two seasons, and he fared especially well in that area last season. He also excelled in that metric in 2022-23. Nurse has had one bad season in terms of botched retrievals per 60 in the last four.

His successful exit percentage has increased in each of the last two seasons. His failed exit % and failed exits per 60 rates have also improved over the last two seasons. So it’s not as if he’s terrible at retrieving the puck and getting it out of the defensive zone. I would argue that’s a strength of his game.

This information tells me that if teams aren’t choosing to attack on his side of the ice because Nurse plays the blue line passively and is good at puck retrievals and zone exits, they should be.

As I mentioned earlier, Nurse’s successful exit % has increased in each of the last two seasons. His retrievals leading to zone exits per 60 have decreased in each of the last two seasons though. There’s a difference between a successful exit and an exit with possession. That’s why we need to look at exits with possession % and exits with possession per 60. If we look at the last four seasons, Nurse has alternated between being above average and being below average in those two metrics. That doesn’t give us much of a read on whether he’s good at that or not. It really depends on the season.

These stats give us some insight, but they don’t show the whole picture. They don’t isolate passing success, and they don’t account for the play of the forwards. Exit rates with and without control will decrease if the forwards can’t get open and get the puck out of their zone. I think that was a bigger factor in last season’s performance from Nurse and the team as a whole than most people would be willing to admit, but there’s no real way to prove that.

Chances against per 60 is the metric that sticks out the most to me. Nurse was below average in that metric in three of the last four seasons, and alarmingly bad in two of those seasons. Keep in mind that this metric pertains to rush chances against. My eye test tells me that Nurse is often forced to defend rush chances as the last man back because of mistakes by teammates. That doesn’t exonerate Nurse entirely, but this is an example of where the data is only as good as the analysis of that data. It’s also an example of why the eye test matters and data needs additional context to reveal the full story.

It’s tough to isolate how a player reads coverages in the defensive zone using numbers. Micah Blake McCurdy’s career impact card for Nurse indicates that he was actually quite strong at 5v5 defending from 2020-21 through 2023-24, but his performance in that metric has declined over the last two seasons. 

My eye test says that he needs to improve at tying up opponents in front of his own net. We also can’t ignore the fact that Nurse had eleven pucks bounce off of him and into the Oilers net this past season. That doesn’t include the overtime winner in Game 4 of their first round playoff loss to the Anaheim Ducks. A lot of that is simply bad luck, but there’s also merit to the idea that his positioning should be questioned if that bad luck happens as often as it did for him last season.

Now for the offensive side. As I noted earlier, Nurse ranks 34th among all NHL defencemen in 5v5 points over the last three seasons.

Nurse stands out as a volume shooter. He ranks fourteenth among NHL defencemen with 2,044 shot attempts in this decade. Something of interest to me is that his rebound chances created per 60 rates have drastically fallen since 2022-23. His shooting percentages in the last two seasons have been his two lowest since 2019-20, so it’s fair to say that Nurse’s sights have been a little off the last two seasons. Nurse’s shooting data from Blake McCurdy supports this.

His volume shooting and his ability to trail the rush and score goals that way are his offensive calling cards. Those strategies led to consistent offensive output up until this past season. The offensive dropoff for the 31-year old is concerning.

So, the scouting report on Nurse according to the data is that he plays a passive style at the blue line but makes up for that with above average defensive zone retrieval abilities. Blake McCurdy’s data says that Nurse has generally been a strong five-on-five defender, but has declined in that respect in the last two seasons. All Three Zones zone entry defence data says that Nurse struggles with chances against off the rush. I see no data to refute the complaint that Nurse is not a strong passer, but I also don’t see data that says that he’s a terrible passer. Offensively, Nurse is a volume shooter. My eyes tell me he gets a lot of his goals from joining the rush late.

What kind of player would complement Nurse as a partner?

That’s a $9.25 million question in Edmonton. Some people think Nurse should drive a pairing on his own with his price tag being what it is, but it isn’t that simple. Chemistry matters. Ever since Cody Ceci was traded away prior to the 2024-25 season, Nurse has had a rotating cast of partners, most of whom have played above their weight class on a second pairing. Being asked to carry players playing above their capabilities says something about a player, but I digress.

It hasn’t been a successful strategy though. The Oilers have had trouble finding a steady and reliable partner for Nurse. Since Ceci got scratched in the 2024 Western Conference Final, Nurse has played with Vincent Desharnais, Philip Broberg, John Klingberg, Brett Kulak, Troy Stecher, Ty Emberson, Jake Walman, Alec Regula, and Connor Murphy. His results with Murphy were encouraging, but the other pairings left something to be desired.

As Neil Garritty (@NeilGarritty on X) pointed out to me, the xGF% for Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Walman, and Murphy were all higher when paired with Nurse this season than when they weren’t with Nurse. Nurse elevated the play of all the best defencemen on the team this past season.

Since Nurse plays passively at the defensive blue line and is better at retrieving pucks from his own end, it would make sense to put him with someone that plays aggressively at the blue line. However, it shouldn’t be someone that plays too aggressively at either blue line because Nurse struggles with chances against off the rush.

Nurse isn’t the best outlet passer, so it would make sense to play him with someone that is a strong passer. Nurse is a strong skater and transporter of the puck, and he likes to join the rush late for scoring chances. Someone that can get the puck to Nurse on the weak side and that can get the puck up to the forwards quickly to create rush chances seems like an ideal fit. Nurse had his best season with Tyson Barrie, who fit this description.

That SCREAMS Bouchard to me. Bouchard is one of the best passers in the league, and he defends the blueline well. Nurse and Bouchard have historically had fantastic possession numbers when paired together, but the issue with them as a pairing is that they give up a lot of scoring chances. It’s a high event pairing. We all know the narrative surrounding Bouchard and his turnovers. The numbers say that Nurse isn’t the best option as last man back when Bouchard makes a mistake.

However, we saw strong results when Nurse was paired with Murphy down the stretch and in the playoffs. Nurse’s goals against per 60 rate fell from 3.04 without Murphy to 1.24 with him at the end of the regular season according to Natural Stat Trick. The dip in expected goals against per 60 was much smaller (2.73 to 2.28), but that is still significant. Nurse and Murphy led Oilers defencemen in goals against per 60 in the playoffs this spring. They were the best defence pairing the Oilers had in that series.

Murphy is a true shutdown defender that isn’t noted for his passing ability. Perhaps this means that fewer breakdowns were happening around Nurse and he wasn’t forced to cover the mistakes of others as often when he was paired with Murphy. Murphy being a true stay at home defender also gives Nurse the freedom to join the rush sometimes. Some people think that Nurse needs to just stay back and minimize mistakes at the offensive end, but I would argue that his ability to score off the rush is one of the things that earned him his big contract and stifling that part of his game is a great way to ensure the Oilers don’t get the most out of him.

It seems like a simple solution to just re-sign Murphy, but it depends on his asking price. I’m not sold on signing a 33-year old player to a multi-year deal right now. I understand the urgency to win next season, but I think that’s possible while targeting a younger option for the second pairing. We also have to be aware that performance doesn’t always translate from one season to the next.

Ideally, Nurse’s partner would defend the blueline aggressively and be reliable in his own zone. He also needs to move the puck fairly well. That sounds like Mattias Ekholm to me. Nurse and Ekholm had a 70.66% xGF% together in 71:28 last season. It’s a small sample, but I see potential there. Moving Ekholm to his off side isn’t ideal, but it feels like the lesser of all evils here.

Playing Ekholm with Nurse would mean splitting up the top pairing. The Ekholm-Bouchard pairing gave up 2.71 goals against per 60 last season, and it was a problem. It was up from 2.37 in 2024-25. It has steadily been climbing ever since Ekholm arrived. Ekholm’s goals against per 60 rate has been rising consistently every year since he came to the Oilers. He’s 36 years old now. It’s time to get him off the top pairing. Putting him on his off side might not be ideal, but his skillsets complement Nurse well and a reduced role on a second pairing would benefit him at this stage of his career. 

Playoffs

No evaluation of Nurse’s impact is complete without mentioning his playoff performance. Nurse was outscored 1-6 at five-on-five in the 2023 second round series against the Vegas Golden Knights. He was outscored 17-25 in the 2024 playoffs. It averaged out to Nurse being on the ice for one five-on-five goal per game that spring. Eighteen of those goals came in the team’s first sixteen games. I wrote a piece where I analyzed those eighteen goals and found that Nurse made a full or partial mistake on six of them (33.33%). He needed to be better, but there were too many breakdowns around him that made his performance look worse than it was. Having said that, his 41.95% xGF% that spring says a lot. Nurse’s playoff performance was more stable in 2025, but still not great. He was only outscored 17-19, and his xGF% was 47.10%. One great series this spring doesn’t make up for all of that, but it can’t be ignored either.

Related: Deep Dive: Nurse’s 2024 playoff struggles

Wrap

We’re talking about the defenceman that has played the second most games for the Oilers in the franchise’s history. The player that sits second in goals among Oilers defencemen, fifth in assists and points, third in even strength points, third in game-winning goals, and second in overtime goals (stick tap to Neil Garrity for the all-time franchise standing context). Nurse has led all Oilers defencemen in five-on-five ice time per game in every season but one since 2017-18 (Bouchard in 2023-24). 

Nurse ranks thirteenth among all NHL defencemen in hits and eighth in blocked shots in the 2020s. He’s fifteenth in games played in that time span, and 30th in time on ice per game. That sounds like a defenceman with a specific skillset, but Nurse ranks 34th in five-on-five points by defencemen in the NHL over the last three seasons. These stats say that he brings it at both ends of the ice and does it while logging big minutes.

Nurse is a powerful skater that covers a lot of space in a hurry. His 6’4”, 215 lb frame and MMA training make him a nightmare to play against, although I’m sure I’m not alone in wishing he would bring that edge more often. He hits a lot, but it feels like he could be meaner out there more often.

I understand the thinking in trading Nurse given his contract and his performance in relation to that contract. Nurse’s pain points are real and visible, but he also does a lot of things well. No, his play isn’t worth the eleventh highest AAV among NHL defencemen; but he’s a legitimate top four if not top pairing defenceman that should have value in the trade market.

So, the question that you’re waiting for me to answer is whether or not I think the Oilers should trade Nurse.

I’ve always wanted it to work out with Nurse, and I still think it could if he was to be utilized correctly. If Nurse tells Oilers GM Stan Bowman that he will not waive his no-movement clause this summer, then I hope that the new coaching staff will put Nurse in a position to succeed. That means giving him a partner that won’t be playing above his head on a second pairing and that complements Nurse’s skillset. That would be any of Murphy (if re-signed), Bouchard, or Ekholm.

I’m looking at the construction of the defence and seeing that the Oilers have three quality defencemen on their left side and a hole on the right side. The utilization of the defence group has been awkward because of that for many years now, and it isn’t working. Bowman has already committed to Ekholm and Walman by signing them to extensions. He did not commit to Nurse. That doesn’t mean Nurse should be the odd man out, but it means that he’s most likely to be that.

The reality is that if you look at Natural Stat Trick’s Line Tool, the Oilers have been better without Nurse on the ice than they’ve been with him on the ice in every season but one since 2020-21 (2024-25). I can also say that the Oilers have been better without Walman on the ice as well, so we have to be careful with this logic.

The other reality that should be a big factor here is Nurse’s impact on the play of the Oilers’ dynamic duo. Connor McDavid’s underlying metrics don’t change much whether he’s with Nurse or not, but Leon Draisaitl’s certainly do. 2024-25 is the only season where Draisaitl’s underlying metrics weren’t significantly worse with Nurse than they were without him. The results over a large sample says that Nurse is not a good fit for Draisaitl. When you consider that McDavid gets Bouchard most of the time, that leaves Nurse to play with Draisaitl. Perhaps that’s another reason to put Nurse with Bouchard, but it could also be a smart move to build a second pairing that will work better with Draisaitl considering McDavid gets Bouchard.

Once again, I can say the same thing about Walman, so we have to be careful. Since Walman’s arrival at the end of the 2024-25 season, Draisaitl’s xGF% is 9.2% higher away from Walman than it is with him. Walman might not ultimately be the one tasked with the Draisaitl minutes should Nurse get moved, but he’s the most likely candidate based on the team’s seeming unwillingness to split up the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing.

The nice thing about having three quality left shot defencemen is that if one gets hurt, it isn’t a massive blow to the team as a whole. Walman has his injury issues. He hasn’t played more than 65 games in an NHL regular season in his career. If Nurse gets traded, then it would behoove Bowman to get a cheaper left shot defenceman that could hold his own in the top four in case of a Walman injury.

I’d argue that it would be smart to move on from Nurse while he still has value and before he hits his declining years, especially considering the stylistic fit here. The Oilers want to be a team that possesses the puck and moves it quickly, which does not mesh with Nurse’s strengths. He’s also not a great fit with Draisaitl, which is a role the Oilers need him to fill based on the ice time he gets. The Oilers are running out of assets to use to add to their team. They have to move someone with value at some point, so why not move the highest expendable cap hit now at a time when there will be some movement around the league due to the rising cap.

If the plan is to trade Nurse, especially given the additional context of Nurse and McDavid being great friends and long time teammates and the situation involving McDavid’s short contract, then his $9.25 million had better be spent wisely. Some of that would need to be allocated for a cheaper left shot defenceman that could moonlight in the top four if Walman or Ekholm were to get hurt. Some of it would need to be used to upgrade the forward group.

I would be a little bit sad if Nurse was to get traded because it would be the end of an era of sorts and Nurse was a player that McDavid referenced in his recent Sportsnet interview talking about players he wants to celebrate a Stanley Cup win with. I’d also be okay with it because the Oilers have a surplus of top four left shot defencemen and I understand how much flexibility his $9.25 million would give the Oilers heading into this critical two year period of roster retooling during this salary cap spike.

Editor’s Note: Stick taps to Kevin McCurdy for helping me gather data and to Neil Garritty for providing additional perspective on Nurse. Give Kevin (@KevinMcCurdy) and Neil (@NeilGarritty) a follow on X if you don’t already!