February 8, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

There has been a constant buzz about the Edmonton Oilers needing to acquire a top four defenceman over the last few months. I feel that the lack of affordable and absolute upgrades and the tight cap situation makes it unecessary to acquire a top four defender at the trade deadline. I decided to dig into the numbers to see how Brett Kulak has performed in a second pairing role this season. The narrative regarding Brett Kulak’s play this season is that he’s struggling as a top four defender. He directly caused two goals by tripping over his own feet on two separate instances early in the season, but my eyes tell me that he has otherwise been solid this season. 

It’s fair to say that Kulak would be best served on a third pairing on an elite team, but the Oilers have asked him to take on a second pairing load this season. According to PuckIQ, he has played 43.7% of his time against middle level competition this season, compared to 30.1% against “gritensity” level competition and just 26.2% against elite competition.

Let’s look at the facts. I chose to examine goals for (GF%), expected goals (xGF%), high danger scoring chances (HDCF%), and Corsi (CF%). Analyzing goals alone isn’t fair because there is an element of luck in goals against. Including expected goals takes some of that luck out of the equation. My concern is high danger scoring chances rather than just any old scoring chances because high danger chances occur closer to the goal. Lastly, I’ve included Corsi because it provides an indication of the end in which most of the play happens.

These are Kulak’s numbers for the season according to Natural Stat Trick:

GF%: 51.61% (32 – 30)

xGF%: 50.69%

HDCF%: 53.33% (168 – 147)

CF%: 48.21%

Related: Philip Broberg continues to compare favourably to a beloved former Oiler

While these numbers aren’t eye popping, they certainly don’t suggest that Kulak has struggled. Let’s go a bit deeper. Kulak did struggle for a stretch from November 5, 2022 to November 26, 2022. Here are his numbers during that stretch:

GF%: 15.38% (2 – 11)

xGF%: 42.66%

HDCF%: 41.67% (30 – 42)

CF%: 45.54%

To say he struggled then would be an understatement! The thing that changed for him during that time span was his playing partner. Kulak began playing with Evan Bouchard rather than Tyson Barrie during the stretch in question. Here are Bouchard’s numbers during that same period from November 5 to November 26:

GF%: 20% (2 – 8)

xGF%: 53.17%

HDCF%: 56.52% (39 – 30)

CF%: 55.78%

Bouchard was the duct tape on the bottom of the boat on that pairing. Kulak was clearly the one dragging that pairing down in November. Here are their numbers together as a pairing on the season:

GF%: 38.89% (7-11)

xGF%: 50.69%

HDCF%: 54.32% (44 – 37)

CF%: 51.96%

The underlying numbers suggest that the pairing was fine, but the scoreboard says that it was a dumpster fire.

Kulak’s numbers away from Bouchard this season are interesting:

GF%: 56.82% (25 – 19)

xGF%: 50%

HDCF%: 52.99% (124 – 110)

CF%: 46.86%

These numbers tell me that Kulak just didn’t feel comfortable playing with Bouchard. It doesn’t mean that Kulak is a pile of garbage, it just means that those two didn’t have chemistry.

Related: The Awkward State of the Oilers Defence

These are Kulak’s numbers excluding that difficult stretch in November:

GF%: 61.22% (30 – 19)

xGF%: 52.19%

HDCF%: 56.79% (138 – 105)

CF%: 48.91%

I see a player that’s achieving greater results than should be expected, and those results are pretty damn good. These aren’t the numbers of a player that’s struggling!

Kulak played with Barrie before the Bouchard experiment, and he has been playing with Barrie ever since it ended. Here are their numbers together as a pairing this season:

GF%: 54.55% (18-15)

xGF%: 49.83%

HDCF%: 54.55% (90 – 75)

CF%: 47.28%

The Kulak – Barrie pairing has been respectable. They’ve outscored the opposition and they’ve outchanced the opposition. Their biggest accomplishment has been allowing the Philip Broberg – Bouchard pairing the chance to shine against weaker competition.

I think that many people watched Kulak struggle in November and have chosen to stick to the narrative that he’s struggling in a second pairing role despite evidence that he’s actually been pretty good aside from that three week segment. There are better defencemen in the league, but Kulak isn’t struggling.

The plan has always been for Broberg to pass Kulak on the depth chart. Kulak has been asked to be a placeholder on the left side of the second pairing until Broberg is ready to take on that responsibility. Broberg is trending nicely, but he isn’t there yet. Broberg needs to earn that spot rather than having it given to him. Kulak is making it difficult for Broberg to take that spot from him.