October 26, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Philip Broberg was a healthy scratch for the Edmonton Oilers in their game against the Philadelphia Flyers last Thursday night. This is Broberg’s draft plus five season, and he got healthy scratched early in the season. Naturally, that provided an opportunity for those that wanted Trevor Zegras, Matthew Boldy, or Cole Caufield instead of Broberg and those that are frustrated with Broberg’s development to voice their opinions on the eighth overall pick from 2019.

The way I see it, the healthy scratch was just a move to get Vincent Desharnais back into the lineup after he had sat out the previous two games. The Oilers have five NHL veterans on defence, and then Broberg and Desharnais. Neither Broberg nor Desharnais has established a firm hold on the sixth defence spot. There will be plenty of nights when the Oilers will play seven defencemen and both players will dress, as they did last Saturday night against the Winnipeg Jets and as they will do until Connor McDavid returns from injury. Broberg and Desharnais will also split press box duty when the Oilers choose to dress twelve forwards and only six defencemen.

However, it’s fair to ask questions about Broberg’s development. Broberg was perceived as a bit of a reach in the eighth spot in the 2019 draft because he was ranked in the mid teens in many prospect rankings. He was selected with the hope that he would develop into a top four defenceman, which hasn’t happened. 

I decided to compare Broberg’s development to other Swedish born and trained defencemen that were selected in the top to middle portion of the first round in the salary cap era. My goal was to find out how long it took for these players to become NHL regulars. If a player played in the AHL for a portion of the season, but stuck with the team for the rest of that season once called up, then I considered that to be the year that he became an NHL regular. In Broberg’s case, that was last season, his draft plus four season.

Related: Realistic Expectations for Holloway Based on NCAA Draft Comparables

I’ve left Rasmus Dahlin, the first overall pick in 2018, out of this analysis as he’s an outlier. I’ve also left Victor Soderstrom, who was selected three picks after Broberg in 2019, out because he has yet to earn a spot on an NHL roster. That left me with eleven players for this study:

	Draft Position	NHL Regular	Games Played	Points	Points/Game
Karlsson	15th (2008)	D+2	60	26	0.43
Ekman-Larsson	6th (2009)	D+3	82	32	0.39
Rundblad	17th (2009)	D+6	49	14	0.29
Larsson	4th (2011)	D+5	82	18	0.22
Brodin	10th (2011)	D+2	45	11	0.24
Klefbom	19th (2011)	D+5	30	12	0.4
Lindholm	6th (2012)	D+2	78	30	0.38
Brannstrom	15th (2017)	D+6	74	18	0.24
Liljegren	17th (2017)	D+5	61	23	0.38
Boqvist	8th (2018)	D+3	35	16	0.46
Broberg	8th (2019)	D+4	46	8	0.17
AVERAGE	11.36	3.91	58.36	18.91	0.33

Adam Larsson’s case is an interesting one. He played 65 games in his draft plus one year. However, he hadn’t earned his NHL roster spot for good yet. Larsson played in the AHL from the end of November until the end of March in the 2013-14 season. He was a healthy scratch to start the 2014-15 season as well. He finally played a full NHL season in his draft plus five season.

Anyway, I digress. Broberg’s draft spot was above the average for the group. His NHL arrival time was basically right on the average for this group. However, his 0.17 points per game ranks him in the cold, dark basement. That’s not a good sign for his hopes of becoming a top four defenceman.

Six out of these eleven players were top four defencemen at the time when they became regulars on their respective NHL rosters (bolded font). None of the five that weren’t (including Broberg) ever became top four defencemen. It’s clear that Broberg isn’t as far along as he was expected to be by now, but the odds of him ever living up to the expectations are dwindling based on this analysis.

Injuries have played a large role in Broberg’s slowed development. Opportunity has also played a role. Brett Kulak was brought in at the 2022 trade deadline, and Mattias Ekholm was brought in at last season’s trade deadline. Those players blocked Broberg’s path to a top four spot. However, those players were brought in for a reason. Broberg hasn’t taken the bull by the horns yet, and the Oilers are in “win now” mode.

I’ve been a supporter of Broberg’s since he was drafted. I watched him skate circles around all of the prospects, including Evan Bouchard, in skating drills at his first development camp. We saw a glimpse of his offensive upside prior to the playoff bubble in 2020 when he was one of the best Oiler skaters in the camp leading up to the play-in series. 

Having said that, the realities of time and circumstance are starting to take their toll here. Keep in mind that I’m basing those comments on events that happened before this season. I’m not deciding to turn on Broberg after one healthy scratch. I still think that he’s got some untapped offensive potential based on some of the plays he made during the preseason, but I’m far less bullish on him becoming a top four defenceman at this point in time.

Related: Philip Broberg continues to compare favourably to a beloved former Oiler

Broberg will get a chance to play with Ekholm on the second pairing in tonight’s game against the New York Rangers. Head coach Jay Woodcroft talked about Broberg in this morning’s pre-game availability:

“He’s someone that doesn’t show up in a lot of chances against. He doesn’t show up as a primary cause of a goal against, that type of thing. I think he’s had one early in the season off a faceoff in Vancouver that he’d maybe like to have back; but I see someone that skates well, that has a long body, that’s unafraid to get in the shooting lane. He’s a good hockey player.”

It appears that Broberg has earned Woodcroft’s trust in the defensive end. The next step for Broberg is to start showing his offensive potential by utilizing his fantastic edge work and activating in the offensive zone. Tonight’s game will be a good test for Broberg.