December 3, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in the midst of an odd six day break in December. This break is a great opportunity for reflection and consideration. We know that the Oilers have been on the hunt for a goaltender. There were several reports that the Oilers had three scouts (Brad Holland, Warren Rychel, and goaltending scout Jeff Salajko) in Columbus to watch three games recently, which has sparked many trade rumours. The Columbus Blue Jackets have $4,356,347 in cap space according to PuckPedia. The Oilers only have $150,000 in cap space, which means that the Oilers can’t afford to take on any more money. I’m going to explore some potential Oilers and Blue Jackets trade fits.

Blue Jackets goaltender Daniil Tarasov has been loaned to their AHL affiliate for a three-game conditioning stint after a long-term injury. His return would leave the Blue Jackets with three goaltenders. 

Blue Jackets starter Elvis Merzlikins has three years left at an AAV of $5.4 million after this season. That’s similar to Jack Campbell’s three years at $5 million. Merzlikins had sparkling numbers in limited games in his first two NHL seasons, but has struggled in each of the last two seasons. That was especially so last season when his GAA was 4.23 and his save percentage was .876. His game has returned to form somewhat this season with a 3.04 GAA and a .911 save percentage in eighteen games. 

Merzlikins could be a long-term solution for the Oilers, but Campbell would have to go the other way and the Blue Jackets would have to either retain salary on Merzlikins or take on some money via another player. I don’t see where the appetite for the Blue Jackets to make that deal would come from unless they were getting a better player back while making the money work for the Oilers, or unless Merzlikins is unhappy in Columbus.

Current Blue Jackets back-up Spencer Martin was claimed on waivers earlier this season. He has a 3.20 GAA and a .903 save percentage in nine games this season. That’s better than what either Campbell or Stuart Skinner have given the Oilers this season, but Martin clearly wouldn’t be a long-term solution.

Martin’s contract has a cap hit of $762,500, the exact same as Calvin Pickard’s contract. Pickard has started one game and made one relief appearance since being recalled to the Oilers on November 8, 2023. He has a 2.94 GAA and a .894 save percentage in those two appearances. Skinner has started nine of the ten games since Pickard was recalled. Pickard has been serviceable, but the team clearly doesn’t trust him. Pickard hadn’t played an NHL game since 2021-22 before this season. Martin has played in 38 NHL games since 2021-22 compared to Pickard’s two. I think a Pickard for Martin swap would make some sense here. The cap hits are identical, the Oilers would get a more trustworthy backup that could give Skinner a break at times, and the Blue Jackets would get an organizational number three goalie to go behind Merzlikins and Tarasov.

Elliotte Friedman reported that the Oilers could be looking at other players on the Blue Jackets as well. The Oilers could use help on defence, on the right side specifically. Evan Bouchard has had his struggles but isn’t going anywhere. Cody Ceci has been good, but an upgrade in his spot would be nice. The problem is that his contract is reasonable and the Oilers don’t have space to add a more expensive defenceman. Vincent Desharnais is a nice story, but he’s struggled this season and he has his shortcomings. It would be tough to find a reasonable replacement at his cap hit though.

The Oilers could look at moving Brett Kulak as well, but he’s also playing fairly well at a reasonable cap hit. Philip Broberg might be able to take his spot, but that’s not a certainty at this point. That also wouldn’t help the right side, although it would open up the cap space to go after someone more expensive than either Ceci or Desharnais. A more likely scenario for Broberg is being sent down to Bakersfield, which would create a little bit of cap space for the Oilers.

Related: Oilers Send Campbell to AHL, Recall Pickard

The Blue Jackets are overflowing with defenders, specifically on the right side. Damon Severson is hurt, but they have Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist, and David Jiricek on the right side as well. Jiricek isn’t available. Gudbranson would be an expensive and slow mistake. Peeke is basically a cheaper version of Ceci in my opinion. He has some size, his defending is okay, and he doesn’t produce offence. Boqvist was taken two spots ahead of Bouchard in the 2018 draft. He’s a small, mobile, offensively minded defenceman. He’s got a tantalizing skillset, but he’s just not what the Oilers need.

Jake Bean could be an option as well. He plays both sides and has a cap hit of $2,333,333 for this season. The Oilers probably want someone with cost certainty for next season though.

I don’t see a fit for any deals involving Oilers and Blue Jackets forwards. The Oilers could use help in the bottom six, but don’t have the roster spot to take on another player and the players that the Oilers could fit under the cap are on ELCs and likely a part of the Blue Jackets’ future plans.

Campbell and Ceci for Merzlikins and Peeke would work from a financial perspective. I feel like the Oilers might have to buck up some draft capital in this trade because Merzlikins is two years younger than Campbell and he’s playing better than Campbell. Peeke is four years younger than Ceci, and he’s got cost certainty at a lower cap hit for an extra season.

Tarasov’s conditioning stint ends on December 9, which makes him eligible to play for the Blue Jackets on December 10. The Condors play on December 8 and 9, and the Oilers play on December 6 and 8. Campbell will likely play a game this weekend, we just don’t know in which league that game will occur yet. He was on track to be recalled this week, but the two soft goals he allowed on Saturday night might have changed those plans. This coming weekend isn’t a deadline for a trade, but it will be a significant turning point in any negotiations surrounding a potential goaltending swap between the Oilers and Blue Jackets.

This break might be an ideal time to bring someone new into the fold, but the timing likely isn’t right for other teams right now. The break is a great chance for new head coach Kris Knoblauch to start implementing more of his systems because the team will get extra practice time. It’s a bit of good fortune from his perspective. It’s a big win for the team to get a break heading into a stressful time of the year, especially since this year has already been so stressful for them.