June 4, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers have won the Western Conference championship and advanced to the Stanley Cup Final with a 2-1 win over the Dallas Stars in Game 6.

The Oilers and the Stars really were the best two teams in the Western Conference. It was a tightly contested series until the second period of Game 4. The Stars had a 2-1 series lead, and the Oilers narrowly escaped Game 1 with a double overtime win. Arguments could have been made for either team being up 3-0 after the first three games. I personally felt that the Stars were the better team for most of the play in the first three games, and they took a 2-0 lead on the Oilers in the first period of Game 4.

The Oilers took control of the series from the second period of Game 4 onwards though. The Oilers won Game 4 5-2. They scored five unanswered goals to tie the series. Then the Oilers put down a clinical performance in a 3-1 win in Game 5. They held on for dear life in Game 6. The Oilers only managed ten shots in a 2-1 win. They tied a record for the fewest shots taken in a playoff game, and set a record for fewest shots taken in a Conference Final clinching win. Two powerplay goals in the first period put the Oilers ahead for good though.

Five-on-Five Play

There wasn’t much of a difference between these two teams at five-on-five and the final results in the series were pretty even, but the Stars ultimately scored one more goal at five-on-five than the Oilers did.

I gave the Stars the advantage in my series preview because they had a much higher expected goals percentage in the playoffs than the Oilers had through the first two rounds. The Stars had scored the fewest goals above expected in the league through the first two rounds, and they allowed the fewest goals above expected through the first two rounds. They had the potential to score much more, but also the potential to allow many more five-on-five goals.

Related: Series Preview: Oilers vs Stars

A look across the Natural Stat Trick page for the series says that the series was essentially even at five-on-five. The shots were exactly even, and the goal differential was only one. The Oilers held a slight advantage in shots attempts, and the Stars held a slight advantage in scoring chances. The one spot where the Oilers were markedly superior to the Stars was in high danger goal differential (10-6, 62.5%). That tells me that the Oilers did a better job of defending the slot area than the Stars did. That didn’t result in the Oilers winning the five-on-five goal share though.

Special Teams

The Oilers outscored the Stars 5-0 in special teams play. That included four powerplay goals and one shorthanded goal. The Oilers penalty kill was perfect in a series for the second time in these playoffs (12/12 vs LAK, 14/14 vs DAL). You know a team’s penalty kill was special in a series if they outscore the other team’s powerplay unit over the course of an entire series!

The penalty kill is the single biggest reason that the Oilers won the series, but they really took control of the series once the powerplay got going. It was a weird series because neither team scored a powerplay goal until Game 5. The Oilers powerplay went four for five in the final two games of the series, which ultimately gave them the edge in those games.

Goaltending

Jake Oettinger is widely regarded as one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. He was sporting a .918 save percentage and a 2.09 goals against average heading into this series. However, he ended up with a .901 save percentage against the Oilers. He was stellar in the first two games of the series, but slipped a little bit in Game 3. Oettinger really went off the rails from Game 4 onwards though. His .885 save percentage in Game 5 was his highest in the last three games of the series.

Stuart Skinner deserves a ton of credit. He was pulled from the second round series against the Vancouver Canucks after a discouraging .793 save percentage in the first three games of that series, and he made 32 saves on 35 shots (.906) in the final two games of that series. Skinner’s .810 save percentage in Game 3 against the Stars was his only game where his save percentage was below .909. He had a .923 save percentage for the series.

Skinner was sensational in Games 5 (.950) and 6 (.971). The Edmonton product was especially amazing in Game 6. The Oilers only managed ten shots in the entire game, and Skinner made 34 saves! He shut the door on the Stars while they were hemming the Oilers in their own zone all night long.

Skinner proved that he not only can handle the job, but he belongs in the conversation with some of the top goaltenders in the league. He needs to be more consistent with his elite level play before he can truly be considered an elite NHL goaltender, but there is no question that Skinner can handle himself in pressure packed games.

Call Outs

Vincent Desharnais was pulled for Philip Broberg after three games in this series. Desharnais wasn’t his normal reliable self in the first three games of the series. Head coach Kris Knoblauch opted to go with Philip Broberg in his stead. Desharnais and Broberg have different skill sets. Desharnais has more size and physicality, and Broberg is a better skater. The Oilers needed Broberg’s skill set against the Stars. They might need Desharnais’ skill set in the Stanley Cup Final.

Warren Foegele was also pulled from the series after Game 3. Foegele wasn’t particularly bad in this series, but his play had been waning for quite some time. He has been quiet throughout the playoffs after a fantastic regular season.

Stand Outs

As mentioned previously, Skinner was unbelievable in this series. He outdueled Oettinger. Skinner’s .923 save percentage for the series was elite level goaltending. He was spectacular in the final two games of the series and was a huge reason that the Oilers closed out the Stars.

Connor McDavid led the series with ten points. He scored the double overtime winner in Game 1, and he gave us a new contender for the goal of his career in the clinching Game 6. He had Miro Heiskanen playing on his weak side on the penalty kill, and he exploited it. McDavid slithered through a tight hole between Stars defenders and drug the puck around Heiskanen, whose stick and feet were pointed the opposite way. McDavid then scored on a backhand shot after forcing his way to the middle of the Stars penalty killing unit. The Oilers captain came up clutch when he was needed in this series.

Shoutouts

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored two powerplay goals in Game 5 to get the Oilers a win. More importantly, it got the Oilers powerplay going. The powerplay also won Game 6 for the Oilers.

Darnell Nurse took a lot of heat for his play in the playoffs up until Game 4. Then Game 4 started with two quick goals with Nurse on the ice, one of which bounced in off his backside. He responded in a big way though. He used his feet to join the rush on multiple occasions, and he got an assist from it. He also had a career-high twelve hits in Game 4! Nurse was solid for the rest of the series after that game.

Broberg came into the series in Game 4 after having not played in about six weeks. Broberg’s only two NHL games since November were the final two games of the season, a tough loss in the Arizona Coyotes’ final game as a franchise and a silly game in Colorado where the Oilers dressed a glorified AHL team. Broberg performed admirably. He was hardly noticeable in a good way in Games 4 and 6. He had a tough sequence where he coughed the puck up twice in short succession early in Game 5, but he settled down and eventually scored his first NHL playoff goal.

Wrap

The Stars had the best record in the Western Conference this season, and they took down the two most recent Stanley Cup champions on their way to their second consecutive Western Conference Final (their third in the last five seasons).

The Oilers stomped on the gas pedal late in the series and won three games in a row to close out the Stars in six games. That says a lot about how good this Oilers team is.

When people think of the Oilers, they think of a run and gun team that can’t defend and only wins games because of their powerplay. Well, the Oilers were even with the Stars through four games without scoring a powerplay goal. The Oilers only allowed two goals to the Stars in the final eight periods of the series. They were outshot 35-10 in Game 6, and they won the game. Nobody can say that the Oilers can’t defend anymore. Knoblauch, Paul Coffey, and Mark Stuart have this group defending at a high level.

The Oilers are 3-0 in games where they have the chance to close out an opponent, and 4-0 in any type of elimination game in these playoffs. They are 8-1 in Games 4 or later in these playoffs. The Oilers have played their best hockey late in series. That tells me two things. First, it tells me that Knoblauch is making the necessary tactical adjustments throughout the series. Secondly, it tells me that the Oilers are a mature team with a killer instinct.

The Oilers will now face the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final. The Oilers are back in the Stanley Cup Final for the eighth time in their history and for the first time since losing to the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006. They last won the Stanley Cup in 1990, which was their fifth Stanley Cup.

Meanwhile, the Panthers are back in the Stanley Cup Final for the second consecutive year. This is their third trip to the Stanley Cup Final. Their first was in 1996, where they were swept by the Colorado Avalanche. They will be looking to win their first ever Stanley Cup.