June 6, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will play the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final. These two franchises have never met in the playoffs.

This the Oilers’ eighth Stanley Cup Final appearance. They have won five Stanley Cups and have just two Stanley Cup Final series losses in their history. This is the first Stanley Cup Final appearance for the Oilers since 2006, when they lost a heartbreaking seven game series to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Panthers will be making their third appearance in the Stanley Cup Final. This is their second consecutive Stanley Cup Final. They lost to the Vegas Golden Knights in five games last year. They were swept by the Colorado Avalanche in the 1996 Stanley Cup Final.

Tale of the Tape

The first meeting between these two teams was Oilers Head Coach Kris Knoblauch’s fourth game behind the Oilers bench. It was the second of a four game Eastern road trip. The Oilers lost that game 4-3 along with games in Tampa Bay and Carolina. The fourth game of that trip was on November 24, 2023 against the Washington Capitals, a game that was the first of an eight-game winning streak and that is known for being the turning point of the Oilers’ season.

That streak ended in the second last game of a six-game homestand in December. The Oilers welcomed the Panthers to Rogers Place in the last game of that homestand, and the Panthers won handily by a score of 5-1.

The Oilers went 0-2 against the Panthers in the regular season, but the Panthers caught the Oilers in moments where they weren’t playing up to their standard.

The Oilers have had a more difficult road to the Stanley Cup Finals than the Panthers have had. The Oilers took care of business in round one by beating the Los Angeles Kings in five games. The Oilers faced an intense series against Canadian rival and the Pacific Division champion Vancouver Canucks in round two. It was an emotional roller coaster of a series that saw no team win two games in a row until the Oilers won Games 6 and 7 to take down the Cauncks.

The Oilers enter the Stanley Cup Final playing some of their best hockey. They closed out the Dallas Stars, who had the best record in the Western Conference in the regualr season, by winning three consecutive games. The powerplay went four for five in their last three games, and Stuart Skinner gave them exceptional goaltending in Games 5 and 6. 

Related: Series Wrap: Oilers vs Stars

The Panthers haven’t really been challenged all that much in these playoffs. The Tampa Bay Lightning fell to the Panthers in five games. The Bruins put up a little bit more of a fight, but they did not have the horses to keep up with the Panthers. The Bruins rode the momentum of their Game 7 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs in round one into a Game 1 win against a too well rested Panthers team just two days later. The Panthers won four of the next five games in that series.

The Panthers also enter the Stanley Cup Final having won their past three consecutive games. The pesky New York Rangers won two overtime games. The Panthers were the better team in all six of the games in the Eastern Conference Final, but the Persident’s Trophy winners found a way to make all of those games close. Game 1 was a 3-0 loss that was close until an unfortunate own goal by the Rangers gave the Panthers a 2-0 lead. They added an empty netter to make the score look lopsided.

The Oilers lead the playoffs in both goals scored (38) and goals allowed (39) at five-on-five in these playoffs. Part of that is due to longevity at this point, but part of that is also just playing high event hockey. The Panthers have played in one less game than the Oilers have this spring. The Panthers have scored 31 five-on-five goals, and they have only allowed 24 five-on-five goals.

The Oilers have scored the most five-on-five goals in the playoffs. However, they also lead the league in goals scored above expected according to Moneypuck, which suggests that they are overachieving in five-on-five goal scoring.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have only allowed 24 five-on-five goals in seventeen playoff games. They sit fourth in the league in fewest goals allowed above expected. That tells me that the Panthers are overachieving in five-on-five defending. It will be interesting to see which trend holds true in the Stanley Cup Final.

The Panthers rank low in goals scored above expected (fourteenth). They have scored eight fewer five-on-five than the Oilers have scored. The Oilers lead the playoffs in goals scored above expected. That’s a trend that could even out in the Stanley Cup Finals.

The Oilers have allowed the eleventh fewest goals above expected (0.19), so they are allowing goals at the approximate level that the numbers suggest they should be allowing goals. We know the Oilers have allowed the most five-on-five goals in the playoffs. This information could spell trouble at five-on-five for the Oilers should the Panther’s goal scoring luck turn.

The Panthers have the best five-on-five goal differential in these playoffs (+7). The Panthers have the edge over the Oilers in every shot metric and in expected goals percentage.

The regular season doesn’t matter at this point, but it does provide a picture of how well a team performs in certain metrics over a larger sample size than what the playoffs offer. The Oilers and the Panthers were really, really close in many important metrics; but the Panthers held a slight edge over the Oilers in all of them except for two. The Oilers led the league in expected goals percentage. The Oilers also had a slightly better five-on-five goal differential than the Panthers during the regular season. Florida ranked near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed above expected though, whereas the Oilers were middle of the pack in that metric. Allowing fewer goals than expected is a trend that has held true for the Panthers in the playoffs as well. It will be tough for the Oilers to continue scoring at such a high pace at five-on-five in this series.

The Oilers enter the Stanley Cup Final leading the league in both powerplay percentage and penalty killing percentage, just like they did in the third round. The Oilers have now killed off 28 consecutive penalties. They have had perfect penalty kills in two of their three series this spring. Special teams have been the biggest reason that the Oilers have advanced to the Stanley Cup Final.

The Panthers were a top ten team in both special teams phases during the regular season. Their powerplay percentage in the playoffs is essentially equal to their regular season powerplay percentage. The Panthers’ penalty kill has also been magnificent in these playoffs though (88.2%, 2nd). The Rangers had the third best playoff powerplay entering the Eastern Conference Final, but they only managed to score one powerplay goal in the six game series.

One thing to watch for is that the Panthers allowed two shorthanded goals to the Rangers in their series. The Oilers scored a shorthanded goal in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final, and they get a lot of shorthanded chances because of their ability to turn pucks over high in the defensive zone. An Oilers shorthanded goal could be a huge factor in the series.

Segei Bobrovsky has simply been fantastic this season. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner and 2024 Vezina Trophy nominee had an incredible regular season, and he has backed that up with even better play in the 2024 playoffs.

Stuart Skinner was incredible at the end of the Western Conference Final and is capable of elite play, but his overall body of work is not consistent enough for me to suggest that the Oilers have any kind of advantage in goal.

Key Matchups

McDavid vs Barkov

Connor McDavid is the best player in the world, and he leads these playoffs in scoring with 31 points entering the Stanley Cup Final. Aleksander Barkov is also an elite point producing option. However, Barkov is more known as one of the top defensive centres in the game. Barkov just won his second Frank J. Selke Trophy for being the league’s best defensive forward. Oilers Head Coach Kris Knoblauch isn’t likely to shy away from this matchup.

Regular season 5×5

Oilers w/ Mcdavid +33
Panthers w/ Barkov +30

Oilers w/o McDavid +7
Panthers w/o Barkov +6

The pundits need to go back to the drawing board.

— Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) June 6, 2024

We can expand the conversation to include the top five-man units from both teams. Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) shared these stats:

1.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
TOI(5×5) 115
GF/60 5.71
GA/60 2.08
Net 3.63

Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart
TOI(5×5) 59
GF/60 1.02
GA/60 1.02
Net 0.00

3.
Ekholm-Bouchard
TOI(5×5) 298
GF/60 3.62
GA/60 1.81
Net 1.81

Forsling-Ekblad
TOI(5×5) 283
GF/60 2.54
GA/60 1.69
Net 0.85 https://t.co/BzZCL18Zfk

— Blue Bullet Brad (@BlueBullet1981) June 4, 2024

The Oilers’ top group is far more high event than the Panthers, but the net goals for per sixty for the Oilers is higher than that of the Panthers.

Draisaitl/Kane vs Tkachuk

Matthew Tkachuk scored a hat trick in the Calgary Flames’ Game 1 win over the Oilers in their 2022 second round series. Tkachuk recorded an assist in Game 2 of that series as well, but that would be his last point of the series. The Oilers won four straight games after losing Game 1. Evander Kane played a big role in that with his on-ice discussions with Tkachuk. Tkahcuk was never quite as involved once Kane got in his face. Tkachuk is more likely to be involved in a matchup with Leon Draisaitl’s line in this series. Draisaitl lit the Flames up for seventeen points in their five game series, and he did that essentially on one leg.

Tkachuk has become a much more mature player since that series. He backed up his 104-point season with the Flames in 2021-22 with a 109-point effort last season and an 88-point season this season. Tkachuk leads the Panthers with nineteen points in seventeen playoff games. Draisaitl has 30 points in sixteen playoff games, and he will liekly be tasked with handling Tkachuk. Tkachuk will have help from Sam Bennett, who has become an outstanding forechecker, and Evan Rodrigues.

Keys to Victory

Oilers: The Oilers will win the series if their special teams units continue to dominate. Five-on-five goals will be tough to come by in this series, even for the team that is leading the playoffs in five-on-five goal scoring.

Ultimately, the Oilers will go as far as their superstars can carry them. That isn’t meant to be a slight to the rest of the Oilers roster like it once was. The simple fact is that the Oilers have the two best players in the world. They also have the top three and five of the top seven scorers in these playoffs. It’s a cliché, but the Oilers’ best players will need to be the best players in the series.

The one team in the NHL that we know for certain that is good enough to beat the Oilers is themselves. They have a penchant for having stretches where they made sloppy mistakes, and it has costed them dearly in the past. The Oilers have kept those stretches to a minimum in these playoffs. No team plays perfect hockey for a full game or a full series, but the Oilers will need to not beat themselves in this series.

Panthers: The Panthers allowed the fewest goals in the league in the regular season, and they have allowed fourteen fewer five-on-five goals than the Oilers have in only one less postseason game. Their goaltending is also superior to that of the Oilers. The Panthers have also ranked near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed above expected in the regular season and the playoffs. The Panthers can’t outscore the Oilers, but they might be able to out defend them.

X Factors

Oilers: Darnell Nurse

Nurse has been on the ice for the most five-on-five goals against in the league in these playoffs. However, the bleeding seems to have been controlled after Game 4 of the Western Conference Final. Nurse has had quite a few things not go his way this spring. He has been on the ice for several key mistakes by his defence partners and forwards that have led to goals against. He has also had multiple bad bounces go against him. It’s fair to criticize his gap control or his failure to clear the puck at certain times, but you can’t argue that luck has been a factor in a lot of the goals that Nurse has been on the ice for in the playoffs. If Nurse can continue the confident and physical play while limiting the goals against, then the Oilers will be in great shape.

Related: Deep Dive: Nurse’s 2024 playoff struggles

Panthers: Anton Lundell

Lundell is the centre of a dangerous third line for the Panthers that features himself, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Eetu Luostarinen. Lundell leads the line with twelve points in the playoffs. Lundell has earned the nickname “Baby Barkov” because his style of play is so similar to Barkov. Barkov is known as one of the best two way forwards in the game, and he is seemingly up for the Frank J. Selke Trophy annually. Lundell is also a smart and strong defensive centre. The 22-year old is mature beyond his years. Whether it’s Adam Henrique or Ryan McLeod centering the third line, the Oilers’ third line will have it’s work cut out for it.

Injuries

Oilers: Evander Kane left Game 6 after making a big hit near the bench, but he did return. He logged limited ice time upon returning though. We know Kane has been dealing with a sports hernia for a long time. I can’t say if his absence in Game 6 was due to that injury or not. Kane is expected to play in Game 1.

Panthers: None. This is a stark contrast to last year for them.

Wrap

This is going to be a great series. There was no Cinderella run this year. Both of these teams deserve to be here and were considered contenders by most people before the season started. It’s a battle between two elite teams that excel in different areas, the Oilers in scoring and the Panthers in defending. It’s also a meeting of the top two penalty killing teams in these playoffs.

Travel will certainly be a factor in this series. The flight distance between Edmonton and Sunrise, Florida (4,093 km or 2,543 mi) is the furthest distance between two teams in Stanley Cup Final history. As the lower seed, the Oilers’ trip to Florida for Game 1 will be the extra flight in this series.

Will the Oilers become the first Canadian team in thirty one years to win the Stanley Cup, or will the Panthers take care of last year’s unfinished business? Game 1 goes on Saturday. Buckle up, Oilers fans! Enjoy the series.

Related: Edmonton Oilers reach Stanley Cup Final for first time since 2006