July 6, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Edmonton Oilers CEO and acting general manager Jeff Jackson has added two first round prospects via trade since the start of the 2024 NHL draft on June 28, 2024. These two trades represent a needed philosophical change in thinking by the organization.

The Oilers surprised the hockey world by trading into the first round of this year’s draft. They gave fans a bit of a show at the Sphere in Las Vegas. They traded a conditional first round pick in either 2025 or 2026 for the 32nd pick of the 2024 draft. The 2025 pick is top twelve protected, and the condition is that the pick slides to 2026 if the Oilers decide to trade the 2025 pick away. London Knights forward Sam O’Reilly was the man the Oilers were after with that pick.

Related: Oilers trade up to select Sam O’Reilly with final pick in the first round

This was a puzzling move for a couple of reasons. First, the Oilers are in “win now” mode and they traded away an asset that could’ve been used at the trade deadline in 2025 to bolster their roster for another deep playoff run. The conditions of the trade allow them to still trade that pick away if they so choose, but that would just kick the can down the road by a year.

Scouting lists are subjective, but the second reason that this was a puzzling move was because O’Reilly was ranked much lower than where he was taken by many scouts. The most optimistic rankings had O’Reilly being taken right where he was eventually taken, and the least optimistic ones had him going late in the second round. Jackson said that they had O’Reilly ranked higher on their list than where they got him. Director of Amateur Scouting Rick Pracey liked O’Reilly enough to push for this trade to happen. 

It was an interesting move for Jackson and Pracey’s first draft pick. I can’t help but wonder what impact Senior Director of Data & Analytics Michael Parkatti had in this decision. You see, Parkatti used to be a blogger back in the day. His website boysonthebus.com is up and running. There, you will find a series of five articles that he wrote about his efforts to create a model that could predict the future success of CHL prospects.

All of the methods that Parkatti used to create this model are way over this simpleton’s head, but the basic idea is that he evaluated 559 OHL and WHL players drafted between 1996 and 2010 using 57 variables. He sought to create a model that would sort them into two categories, NHL player and non-NHL player. He used the criteria of a player having collected 75 NHL points in seven years to qualify as an NHL player. 

Michael Parkatti has been named the #Oilers Senior Director, Data & Analytics! 📊

Working closely with the hockey operations department, Parkatti will lead the creation & operation of a new analytics department, providing insight-driven recommendations for the team. pic.twitter.com/2ITPw1DOeo

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) September 21, 2023

Parkatti wrote a five-part series where he introduced a new type of statistical model in each piece that got progressively more intricate with each passing piece. I’ll let you read them for yourself to get the results; but I will say that what he came up with was fairly accurate, and he didn’t really get too far below the surface in those pieces. Parkatti wrote those pieces in 2019, and he has been employed with the Oilers since last September. He has had a lot of time to refine his statistical model since writing the original pieces. This is just one example of how analytics and statistics offer value beyond Corsi and expected goals, which makes Parkatti’s presence in the organization tremendously important.

This was the first draft since Parkatti was hired. My gut is telling me that Parkatti’s model viewed O’Reilly favourably.

Related: Oilers Hire Parkatti as Senior Director, Data and Analytics

O’Reilly put up 56 points in 68 games for the Knights this season, which led OHL rookies. The scouting report on O’Reilly seems to be that he can play in all three zones, but his defensive work gets a lot of praise. He will need to improve his skating (as most eighteen year old prospects do), but the hockey sense is there. There is some offensive upside with this player as well. O’Reilly was not the feature player on the Knights this past season. He’s likely to break out in a big way this coming season.

Jackson made an even bigger splash on Friday. He traded Ryan McLeod and Ty Tullio to the Buffalo Sabres for 2022 ninth overall pick Matthew Savoie. The trade was made necessary due to salary cap constraints, but there’s more to it than that. 

Related: Oilers trade McLeod to Sabres for Savoie

I’m sure the team didn’t need Parkatti’s expertise to tell them that Savoie is an elite prospect. He put up 71 points in 34 games split between the Wentachee Wild and the Moose Jaw Warriors last season. He also got five points in six AHL games with the Rochester Americans last season.

Most Oilers fans are focussed on the here and now because the Oilers are contenders on the verge of a Stanley Cup win. The attitude of a lot of fans is that the team needs to go “all-in” every year, which means that they want the GM to load up the current roster with top talent now. They want the top free agents every summer, and they want the team to add the biggest names available at every trade deadline with blatant disregard for the future because draft picks and prospects don’t help you win immediately.

Regardless of what you thought of former Oilers GM Ken Holland’s trade deadline acquisitions, he added at all five of the trade deadlines during his Oilers tenure. Holland’s trade deadline acquisitions left the Oilers’ well of draft picks and prospects all but dry. Holland dipped into the 2027 draft to make a trade! He constantly took water out of the well without putting anything else back in by trading players out like Jackson did on Friday. It also doesn’t help that only two of Holland’s draft picks (Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg) are looking like legitimate NHLers at this point.

It’s highly likely that O’Reilly will become an NHL player. We just don’t know how productive he will be at the NHL level. He’s likely three to five years away from coming into the lineup. A lot of people will balk at that because they are short-sighted. The thought process is that this asset won’t help the Oilers win a Stanley Cup in 2025, therefore it’s a useless asset. I disagree with that thinking because the Oilers want to contend for the duration of McDavid and Draisaitl’s careers. They need a pipeline of prospects that will hit the lineup down the road. O’Reilly looks to be one of those players.

Savoie’s three-year entry level contract is set to begin this season. I don’t expect Savoie to be in the AHL for all three of those seasons. The McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard extensions will all be signed before Savoie’s ELC expires. Savoie could certainly be ready to contribute by the time McDavid’s next contract begins. He could be a much needed cheap source of offence in the 2026-27 season.

Jackson has made two trades to rectify Holland’s wrong. The goal here is to win a Stanley Cup now AND to be in the mix to win multiple Stanley Cups down the road. If a team is going to contend for a long period of time, then they need to have a pipeline of home grown players that can provide value. Both O’Reilly and Savoie are likely to be ready early in McDavid’s next contract.

It’s great to see that Jackson has an eye on the future. It’s a needed philosophical change in the organization. Restocking the prospect pipeline will make the Oilers’ GM job more desirable to potential candidates, and it will show McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard that there is a plan in place to keep the team competitive over the course of their next contracts. The O’Reilly and Savoie additions are a great start, but the Oilers will have to keep the prospects coming over the course of the next few seasons.