August 15, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The St. Louis Blues clearly see something in Philip Broberg. They offered Broberg a two-year deal at an average annual salary of $4,580, 917. That’s a gross overpayment for a player that has thirteen points in 81 NHL games over three seasons, but they had to offer Broberg enough money to make the Edmonton Oilers even think about not matching the offer.

Related: Blues sign Broberg and Holloway to offer sheets

The contract will pay Broberg like a top four defenceman. His new AAV will rank 79th in the league among defencemen, which places his salary in line with that of a high-end second pairing defenceman. We know that he’s not that today. He’s entering his draft plus six season, and he appears to have just earned an NHL roster spot somewhere now. That math usually doesn’t add up to a top four defenceman.

The Blues have put their money on Broberg developing into a top four defenceman by the start of the 2026-27 season. The Oilers have a pretty good hand with Broberg, but the Blues just raised the pot pre-flop. It will now cost the Oilers $4,580,917 for two years to see the flop. 

I think it’s fair to say that Broberg is a legitimate NHLer right now. He showed that by dominating the AHL this past season. He played 49 games for the Bakersfield Condors in 2023-24. He got big minutes in all situations, and he was great. Broberg put up 38 points in those 49 games. He has 65 points in 87 career AHL games. He’s too good for that league.

Broberg also showed that he’s a legitimate NHLer with his performance in the 2024 playoffs. He watched the Oilers’ first fifteen playoff games from the sidelines, but he played in the team’s final ten playoff games, including all seven games of the Stanley Cup Final. Broberg scored two goals and added an assist in those ten playoff games. According to Natural Stat Trick, he played 66:40 with Darnell Nurse on the second pairing on his off side. He didn’t play more than 24:55 with anyone else. The underlying numbers were not flattering for him, but he managed to outscore his opponents 6-2 at five-on-five. That included a 4-2 goal differential in the Stanley Cup Final. They achieved that despite a 30.21% expected goals for percentage (its was the same figure in the Stanley Cup Final and the playoffs as a whole). While he and Nurse spent the majority of their five-on-five ice time in their own zone, they managed to defend well enough to win the goal share battle in the late stages of the playoffs. 

Broberg performed admirably in the toughest games of the year after being thrust into the lineup in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final, but the underlying numbers suggest that a second pairing role is a bit too much for Broberg today. He certainly belongs on an NHL ice surface though.

Related: What we know about the Oilers’ thoughts about the offer sheets

Honestly, I think that it’s hardly fair to judge Broberg too harshly based on his 2023-24 NHL regular season. He played in just twelve games. Ten of those games came before the team’s November 24, 2023 game against the Washington Capitals that turned their season around. The Oilers won just two of Broberg’s first ten games of the season. The whole team was playing beyond poorly, so of course his underlying numbers weren’t spectacular. 

The other two games that Broberg played were the team’s final two games of the season. One was the final game for the Arizona Coyotes as a franchise, which was an emotional win for the Coyotes. The other was against the Colorado Avalanche on a night where the Oilers dressed a glorified AHL roster to rest some of their top players before the playoffs.

Broberg was the organizational number seven defenceman entering last season. Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, and Brett Kulak were ahead of him on the left side. Vincent Desharnais was the coaching staff’s preference on the right side due to that being his natural side and of course due to his specific skill set. Kulak and Desharnais were one of the best third pairs in the league last season. The team started winning with that configuration. I don’t think Broberg would’ve gotten into more NHL games last season no matter how well he had played.

I want to point to Broberg’s 2022-23 season here. Broberg played in 46 games for the Oilers that season. According to PuckIQ, Broberg’s five-on-five goal share was 52.7% (29-26). PuckIQ also splits performance based on quality of competition. Broberg’s goal share was at 50% or better against all levels of competition in 2022-23. He actually fared best against mid level competition (58%).

PuckIQ also tracks Dangerous Fenwick For percentages (DFF%). It’s a metric that takes shot quality into consideration. Broberg had a DFF% of 59.2% in 2022-23. He struggled against elite competition in that metric (41.3%), but he shone brightly against mid level and low level competition (60.2% and 64.3% respectively). That suggests to me that Broberg was doing just fine in a third pairing role and that he would’ve gotten to a point where a third pairing role was too easy for him. The team rightfully brought in Ekholm at the 2023 trade deadline though, which pushed Broberg down the depth chart.

Broberg is already an excellent rush defender, and he’s great at retrieving pucks. He’s fantastic at skating the puck out of trouble. I don’t think people realize just how good Broberg’s skating really is. His stride is effortless, and his edge work is ridiculous. He’s got the size, the reach, and the skills to be an excellent defenceman.

Based on what I have seen, there are a couple of areas where Broberg needs to improve to become a top four defenceman. Simply put, he needs to produce more offence. I think he has the tools to be able to do that. Broberg was far more active in the offensive zone early in his career. I think that he has had the offensive creativity coached out of him because he has always had such a tenuous hold on a roster spot in the NHL chances that he has been afforded. Broberg has incredible edge work, which allows him to do some special things with the puck in the offensive zone. He just needs the confidence to do it. The fact that he got two goals and an assist in those ten playoff games at the most difficult time of the year is a sign that the offence will come for him. The video below shows a play from a preseason game against the Seattle Kraken on October 2, 2023 that shows Broberg’s edge work in action. Go to the 6:20 mark of the video below for the goal.

The other area where Broberg needs to improve is his composure with the puck in his own end. He’s really effective at skating the puck out of trouble because he’s such an effortless skater, but he struggles with breakout passes. He tends to get rid of the puck too quickly, which can result in turnovers or icing calls. Both of those results mean that his team spends more time defending. Nurse has some of those same issues, which is likely why the pairing had such a low xGF% in the Stanley Cup Final. Those underlying numbers that were troublesome in the Stanley Cup Final would certainly improve with more composure with the puck in his own end. He would start to pile up more assists with improved breakout passing as well, especially on a team that thrives off the rush like the Oilers.

I did a piece on how Broberg’s development had gone compared to other Swedish defencemen drafted in the first half of the first round prior to the start of last season. Broberg was entering his draft plus five season, and he still had not earned a full-time NHL spot. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson were the only ones that went on to become top four defencemen after earning a permanent full-time NHL roster spot in their draft plus five season or later. Larsson was a weird case because he was a fourth overall pick that played 65 NHL games in his rookie season, but was a healthy scratch later in his tenure with the New Jersey Devils before getting a permanent full-time NHL role. The early part of Klefbom’s career was similar to Broberg’s in that they were both slowed by injuries; but Klefbom had a much clearer path to a top four spot on a chronically terrible team.

Related: Broberg’s Development Versus Swedish Draft Comparables

The odds are certainly against Broberg turning into a top four defenceman at this stage of his development, but I believe that he’s a player that could defy those odds given his skill set and the fact that his lack of opportunity has mostly been the result of organizational depth on a strong team. He’s twenty three years old. That’s getting close to his prime years, but he has many years ahead of him. He just needs an organization to show that they believe in him by creating a roster spot for him and putting him in a position to succeed. 

The Blues have shown Broberg that they believe in him with their offer sheet. Do the Oilers believe in him enough to call the Blues on their bet? Do they see enough in Broberg to pay him second pairing money for the production of a third pairing defenceman for two years to hold his rights? Time will tell.