Slow Starts are killing the Oilers
December 17, 2021OILERSLIVE Tuesday Dec 14 Edmonton Oilers Leafs Postgame
December 17, 2021December 17, 2021 by Eric Friesen
Since 1979, the Edmonton Oilers have drafted just eight players in the sixth-round that have gone on to play at least 100 games in the NHL.
The list includes Steve Smith, Marc Habscheid, Raimo Summanen, Don Barber, Len Barrie, Anatoli Semenov, Brandon Davidson and John Marino. Smith is easily Edmonton’s best sixth-round pick in franchise history. He played parts of seven seasons with the Oilers (1984-1991), tallying 46 goals and 218 points in 385 games, and won three Stanley Cups in 1987, 1988 and 1990.
Selected 180th overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, Matvey Petrov stands the best chance of any player in the last three decades to eventually become the Oilers’ best find in round six.
Here’s where five of the major scouting services ranked Petrov prior to the 2021 NHL Draft:
NHL Central Scouting – 35th
FC Hockey – 57th
TSN’s Craig Button – 70th
TSN’s Bob McKenzie – 92nd
McKeen’s Hockey – 153rd
A lack of eyes on Petrov last winter benefited the Oilers, as they picked him more than 100 spots later than most draft experts figured he would go. And while he was projected to be a third-round choice, Petrov has looked like a first-round talent so far this season.
Outstanding start in the OHL
Petrov was the first overall pick in the 2020 CHL Import Draft by the North Bay Battalion, but the 2020-21 OHL season was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
He played the past two seasons with Krylya Sovetov Moscow in Russia’s top junior league, notching 27 goals and 51 points in 79 career MHL games. Though his arrival in North America was delayed a year, Petrov’s scouting report suggested he was worth taking a flyer on with a later round pick.
“Offensively, Petrov was one of the most talented 03’s in the MHL last season. Equally adept at passing and shooting, and does a really nice job ‘disappearing’ in the offensive zone before showing up in a dangerous location all by his lonesome. Nice hands as well; uses his long frame to get a lot of puck movement while retaining control. The rest of his game, like a lot of young forwards, is a work in progress. Petrov spends a lot of time on the perimeter, and doesn’t engage much physically. His stride also lacks some strength; again, that is not uncommon for a D-1 player. Petrov definitely has the talent to excite in the OHL, and I am a bit disappointed that I won’t be following him this year.” – Ross Martin of ohlprospects.blogspot.com (July 8, 2020)
Petrov made an immediate impact on the team, scoring a hat trick in his first OHL game to lift the Battalion to a 7-4 win over the Peterborough Petes. The Oilers saw enough in Petrov after just 14 OHL games to sign him to a three-year entry-level contract with an $843,000 cap hit on November 10. Petrov was the first of the Oilers’ 2021 draftees to ink a deal with the club.
The 18-year-old ranks second in the league in goals (20), fourth in assists (28), third in points (48), second in power-play assists (14), fourth in power-play points (18) and fourth in plus-minus rating (+18) in 28 games this season. He enjoyed his best stretch from November 11 to December 11, where he had nine goals and 26 points during a 12-game point streak.
Petrov, who is currently on pace for 48 goals and 116 points in a full 68-game season, could become the first Oilers’ OHL prospect to score 50 goals since Rob Schremp in 2005-06, and the first to record 100 points since Connor McDavid in 2014-15.
Cut from Team Russia
Despite his excellent numbers in North Bay, Petrov was left off of Team Russia for the upcoming 2022 IIHF World Junior Championship.
Petrov has represented Russia on the international stage once before, at the 2021 IIHF World U18 Championship this past April. The Moscow native had no goals and one assist in four games and helped Russia claim a silver medal.
On the surface, Petrov should have been a lock to earn a spot on Team Russia for the 2022 IIHF World Junior Championship. However, Russia typically fills its roster with 19-year-old players at this tournament, and rarely selects CHL players. Still, Petrov’s dominance in the best junior hockey league in the world should have been more than enough to at least earn a spot on Team Russia this Christmas.
Petrov, who turns 19 in March, will still be eligible to play in next year’s tournament.
Looking at his NHL future
Just over four months after the Oilers called his name at this summer’s draft, Petrov has become one of the Oilers’ most exciting prospects to follow.
The 6-foot-2, 181-pound winger has actually outperformed fellow Oilers prospect and 2021 first-round pick Xavier Bourgault. And that’s not because Bourgault hasn’t lived up to expectations. In fact, he’s been arguably the best player in the QMJHL this season.
Petrov has an NHL equivalency (NHLe) of 45, which is the second-highest in the Oilers’ system behind only Carter Savoie at 49. Bourgault is in third at 41. So, even though the Oilers didn’t have a second-round in the past two drafts, Petrov has helped address the team’s need for more skilled forwards in the prospect pool.
I expect Petrov will play another season in the OHL before turning pro in 2023-24 when he’s 20. As is the case with most young players since Ken Holland took the reins in Edmonton, Petrov will likely spend some time with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors. But if he continues to progress at a rapid pace, he could stick with the Oilers after two seasons of major junior.
Petrov already has an NHL calibre release, and uses his skating ability to create shooting lanes for himself. He has the potential to be a perennial 20-goal scorer or better at the NHL level, especially if ends up on a line with McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.
If a player picked in the sixth-round of the draft plays even one game in the NHL, he’s already beat the odds. It’s still early, but Petrov should clear that bar. And if the Oilers have found an impact player in Petrov, then five years from now we could be viewing him as one of the biggest steals of his draft class.