May 31, 2025 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Dallas Stars were seeking revenge against the Edmonton Oilers in this year’s Western Conference Final as the two teams met for the second straight season. It wasn’t to be for the Stars though. The Oilers won four straight games after losing Game 1 to take the series in five games.

Related: Oilers vs Stars II: Series Preview

Five-on-five play

The Stars overachieved at five-on-five during the regular season, and their five-on-five performance in the playoffs showed that. The Oilers were fourth in the league in five-on-five expected goals for percentage during the regular season, and they underachieved based on that. The Oilers have been getting the results to match their elite xGF% throughout the playoffs.

I expected the Oilers to win the five-on-five goals battle in this series. However, I did not expect the Stars to have a superior 54.72% xGF% in the series. It’s actually crazy that the Stars played that well at five-on-five and got outscored 5-13. It was a weird series at five-on-five because the Oilers had a 59.02% xGF% in Game 1, and they lost. The Stars had a better xGF% than the Oilers in every other game, and they every other game. The Stars deserve a little bit of credit for being better than I expected at five-on-five, but they ultimately didn’t get positive results.

Special Teams

It felt weird to say the Stars had the advantage on special teams knowing how strong the Oilers powerplay can be and how the Oilers outscored the Stars 5-0 in special teams in last year’s series, but the Stars’ special teams units were both rolling coming into this series, and the Oilers’ special teams units were slumping.

The Stars used three third period powerplay goals to take Game 1 from the Oilers. After going 3/4 in Game 1, the Stars went 1/10 on the powerplay in the rest of the series. That’s a huge reason why they lost.

The Oilers powerplay got going again in the Western Conference Final. They went 6/16 (37.5%), and they scored at least one powerplay goal in every game. As noted above, the Oilers killed nine of the last ten Stars powerplays in the series.

Goaltending

Jake Oettinger was the highest profile goaltender in the series. For whatever reason, Oettinger just hasn’t been able to figure out the Oilers. He had an .853 save percentage in the series, and he was pulled from Game 5 after allowing goals on the first two shots of the game and not registering a save in an elimination game at home.

Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner kept his string of solid play going. He had a .924 save percentage in the series, and got his third shutout of the playoffs in Game 2. Skinner didn’t play perfectly by any stretch, but he was more than good enough to get the job done. That’s two years in a row that Skinner has outperformed Oettinger in the Western Conference Final.

Callouts

This is going to sound ridiculous after the Oilers outscored the Stars 13-5 at five-on-five, but the Oilers will need to tighten it up a little bit in the Stanley Cup Final. Natural Stat Trick had the five-on-five scoring chances in the series at 120-107 in favour of the Stars. They were 97-91 in favour of the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference Final, and both series ended in five games. There were several periods where the Stars dominated at five-on-five and came away with nothing to show for it. Those stretches need to be minimized against the Florida Panthers.

Standouts

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was unbelievable in the Western Conference Final. He had nine points in five games. Nugent-Hopkins had multi-point games in each of the first four games of the series, which is something only three others have ever done in a Conference Final. It was the best series of his career to date.

Connor McDavid also had nine points in the series. He only had three goals in the playoffs entering the series, but he scored three goals in the Western Conference Final alone. He scored two goals in Game 3, including a big goal to restore a two-goal lead just nineteen seconds before the end of the second period. His biggest goal of the series was the series winner in Game 5. The Oilers had jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first period, but the Stars pushed in the second period and got to within one goal. McDavid scored on a breakaway 2:01 after the Stars made it 3-2 to give the Oilers a two-goal lead again. That goal stopped the Stars’ momentum, and the Oilers were able to get the job done in the third period.

Leon Draisaitl also had nine points in the series. His performance was overshadowed by the early series dominance of Nugent-Hopkins and the enormity of McDavid’s goals, but Draisaitl quietly produced in the Western Conference Final. He also not so stealthily sneaked the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl to the Oilers dressing room after Game 5.

Shoutouts

Corey Perry put up another two goals and three points in this series. The 40-year old continues to contribute meaningfully. He can play up and down the lineup, and he will be called upon to help fill the void left by Zach Hyman’s season-ending wrist injury.

Brett Kulak hasn’t been getting enough love in these playoffs. Kulak always steps up in the playoffs, and this year has been no different. His five-on-five goal share was 8-2 in the Western Conference Final, and he played the second most five-on-five minutes among Oilers defencemen. He even scored a goal in Game 3.

Evan Bouchard was great once again. He scored two goals and had five points. His five-on-five goal share was 6-1, and his five-on-five metrics were all stellar. The big thing about Bouchard’s series is that he led the Oilers in penalty kill ice time, which is new for him. Game 1 was a struggle for the penalty kill, but they killed off nine of ten penalties to end the series.

Skinner deserves a shoutout for besting Oettinger once again and for getting his third shutout of the playoffs in Game 2.

Wrap

The Oilers just ran through two high quality opponents in five games each. The Vegas Golden Knights won the Pacific Division this season and had beaten the Oilers en route to their 2023 Stanley Cup win, but the Oilers knocked them out in five games. 

Most of the “experts” picked the Stars over the Oilers in this series. The Stars were considered a contender before they acquired Mikko Rantanen (who only got three points in the series), and the Oilers took them down in five games.

The second round series felt closer than the Western Conference Final did. The Golden Knights took the Oilers to overtime twice and scored a game winner with 0.4 seconds left. All four of the Oilers’ wins against the Stars were by at least three goals. Doing that to a team like the Stars is quite the feat.

Their best players were their best players, but the Oilers also tied a frenachise record with fourteen different goal scorers in this series. Keep in mind that this was a short series! That just speaks to the team’s depth and how well everyone is playing.

This result also took a collective team effort on defence. Everyone is selling out to block shots and committing to disciplined defensive structure. I’m seeing that extra level of effort and willingness to be uncomfortable that teams need to get over the hump.

The Oilers will now face the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final, which gets underway on Wednesday, June 4 at Rogers Place.

Related: Callouts, Standouts, and Shoutouts: Oilers advance to the Stanley Cup Final with Game 5 win over the Stars