March 7, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

Edmonton Oilers’ centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins left the game against the Florida Panthers on February 26 after suffering an apparent shoulder injury as the result of a hit from Ryan Lomberg.

The Oilers have gone 1-2-1 this without Nugent-Hopkins this past week, and the team is 3-7-1 without him this season.

Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t produce the same numbers of points that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl do, but his impact on the team is quite noticeable when he isn’t in the lineup. He’s tied with Zach Hyman for third in team scoring this season, while playing in five fewer games.

His underlying metrics haven’t been spectacular this season, but he’s one of ten Oilers’ players with a goal share of at least 50% at even-strength. The Oilers have been aching for a third line centre that doesn’t get outscored consistently. While I feel that third line centre isn’t the ideal spot for Nugent-Hopkins to thrive, he has been giving the Oilers what they need in that role.

Nugent-Hopkins has an even strength GF% of 60% when playing third line centre in 2021-22. He notched 12 even-strength points in 32 games as a left winger, and he has six even-strength points in 12 games as a centre.

He seems to be doing particularly well under Jay Woodcroft’s new system. His six even-strength points have been split evenly between Woodcroft and Dave Tippett’s tenures, but his expected goals for percentage at third line centre has risen from 44.51% under Tippett to 54.11% under Woodcroft.

He’s an important player at even strength, but his loss is felt the most on special teams.

The Oilers power-play is operating at an impressive 25.6% efficiency this season. However, that number has gone down to 17.65% in the 11 games where Nugent-Hopkins has been on the shelf. Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t have a power-play goal this season, but he’s got 16 power-play assists. Leon Draisaitl only has 14.

Nugent-Hopkins is such an important part of the powerplay because he’s such a smart playmaker. He makes great decisions with the puck, and he has the passing ability to execute when he makes the decision to pass. The goals haven’t been there this year, but he’s also got an accurate shot with a smooth release.

The Oilers penalty kill has a 75.7% success rate this season. It has been dreadful without Nugent-Hopkins. That number is only 62.86% in the eleven games that Nugent-Hopkins has missed this season.

Goals against and scoring chances against are the important metrics to analyze when evaluating penalty killers. I analyzed the goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60Rel), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60Rel), and scoring chances against per 60 (SCA/60Rel) relative to their team on the penalty kill for the top penalty killers on the Oilers by ice time per game this season. 

To arrive at stats that are relative to the team, the quantity of the stat while the player is on the ice is subtracted from the quantity of the stat while the player is not on the ice. I’ve evaluated stats where a lower quantity is more desirable. Therefore, having a negative value in these metrics is a good thing.

The 28-year-old is the only Oilers forward with more than 30 minutes of ice time on the penalty kill this season with negative values in all three of the metrics that I analyzed. His GA/60Rel of -2.04 is behind Hyman (-2.63) and Ryan McLeod (-7). Nugent-Hopkins’ xGA/60Rel is -0.79, which is behind Devin Shore (-3.34) and McLeod (-2.65).

Nugent-Hopkins’ SCA/60Rel of -1.68 is only behind Shore (-37.31) and McLeod (-23.89). Sample size is clearly a factor in the large numbers from Shore and McLeod because neither Shore nor McLeod has played more than 40:41 on the penalty kill all year. Nugent-Hopkins has played 87:25.

Shore’s GA/60Rel is 2.04, so the goals against are happening despite his scoring chances against rate being low. McLeod has negative values in all three metrics. Woodcroft has only recently started using him on the penalty kill more frequently, which is a trend that should continue based on what I’ve seen. Anyway, my point is that Nugent-Hopkins is the best Oilers penalty killer, and the numbers are indicative of that.

The penalty kill has been particularly crippling this past week. The difference in the game against the Carolina Hurricanes on February 27 was a power-play goal. The game against the Chicago Blackhawks on March 2 was won by a power-play goal in overtime. That’s a harder penalty to kill, but the point stands. The Montreal Canadiens scored two power-play goals on Saturday, and they had a third one called back on an offside challenge. The Oilers lost by three goals, and one of those was an empty netter that would not have happened if the penalty kill had been good.

The power-play has been crippling this week too. It’s two for 18 in the four games that Nugent-Hopkins has missed. That’s 11.11%. To rub salt in the wound, the Canadiens scored a short-handed goal and had a second one called back on a different offside challenge. They won’t win many games when the special teams gets outscored 0-3 (not including the two special-teams goals that were called back).

To say that the Oilers miss Nugent-Hopkins is a wild understatement. He’s one of the top point producers on the team. He can play centre or the wing. He can complement elite players, and he can add depth by playing third line centre. He’s an important part of a power-play that is quite pedestrian without him even though it boasts the league’s top two scorers in each of the last two seasons and this one. He’s the best penalty killer on the team.

The Oilers will need to find a way cope without him for the next two weeks if they want to stay in the playoff race.

As always, thank you to Natural Stat Trick for the stats.