March 20, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

The conversation regarding the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff chances has changed in the past couple of weeks.

The Oilers sit in third in the Pacific Division with 20 games left to play. They trail the second place Los Angeles Kings by two points, but the Oilers have two games in hand on them. The injury-plagued Vegas Golden Knights are on the Oilers’ heels. They sit two points back of the Oilers, but the Oilers also have two games in hand on them.

Edmonton started the season 16-5-0 and the team has gone 17-7-2 since that stretch ended. Their ugly 2-11-2 stretch in December and January can largely be attributed to injuries, COVID-19, poor goaltending and questionable coaching decisions.

The Oilers are one player away from icing their best roster. Their goaltending has not been fixed, but it’s getting the job done recently. Mikko Koskinen has posted a 11-1-2 record in his last 14 games. Questions still linger about Mike Smith, but more practice time and a non-playoff opponent led to a win in his last start.

The coaching issue has been solved. The Oilers are a different team under Jay Woodcroft. They’re 12-5-1 in the Woodcroft era, including a 6-2-1 mark in March. Oilers fans got to hear La Bamba at the end of all five games during the team’s latest homestand. Their .694 points percentage under Woodcroft rank them fifth in the league over the course of the entire season thus far.

The notable insiders aren’t expecting the Oilers to do much at the trade deadline. Ken Holland still might opt out of trading high picks and top prospects, but the team’s recent play might change Holland’s thinking. He’s added at the deadline in his two previous seasons here, and I expect that he will add once again this year.

Here is what the Oilers could offer to teams before Monday’s deadline:

Cap Space: $1,704,637 (CapFriendly)

Actual Cap Hit: $85,547,664

Tradable Assets

Picks: 

2022 – 1st, *2nd, *3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th

*2022 2nd and 3rd round picks are involved in the conditions of the Duncan Keith trade. A conditional trade involving the pick that the Oilers will retain is a possibility.

All 2023 picks.

Prospects: 

Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Xavier Bourgault, Raphael Lavioe, Ty Tullio, Filip Berglund, Matvei Petrov, Carter Savoie, Philip Kemp, Michael Kesselring, and Olivier Rodrigue.

Current Players:

Kyle Turris ($1.65M):

Turris’s injury status is a wild card factor in the Oilers’ trade deadline plans. Trading Turris while he’s on LTIR wouldn’t change the cap space. However, it would prevent a situation where activating Turris would leave only $54,637 (plus the value of a potential player being moved off the roster to accommodate Turris). Keep in mind that the Oilers could create $1,125,000 in cap space simply by waiving Turris and burying him in Bakersfield. That would result in a total of $1,179,637 of cap space. If Holland knows that he won’t be able to come back this season, then the Oilers can spend all of their current available cap space on Monday.

Josh Archibald ($1.5 M):

Archibald is an established veteran on an affordable expiring contract that provides physicality and penalty killing prowess. Those are things that playoff teams are looking for at the trade deadline. The Oilers could use those traits, but Archibald’s vaccination status will prevent him from traveling with the team throughout the rest of the regular season and the playoffs, barring any potential rule changes. He would be more of an asset for an American team than he will be for the Oilers.

William Lagesson ($725,000):

The Oilers are in the market to upgrade their third pairing. Lagesson is the Oilers’ sixth or seventh defenceman on the best of days. He’s a 26-year old impending RFA that’s one season away from UFA status. He’s past the point of being a prospect. The fact that the Oilers just signed Markus Niemelainen to a new two year contract doesn’t bode well for Lagesson’s future as an Oiler. Neither does the presence of Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov in the organization. Lagesson is an underrated defender that has shown well with limited usage with the Oilers this season. However, he isn’t vital to the long-term success of the team. It should be noted that he has passed through waivers this season, which might put his trade value into question.

Holland could look at trading Zack Kassian or Tyson Barrie to open up more cap space and to give the team a different look. I would explore trading one or both players this summer to open up more cap space over the next two seasons, but I’d hold off on trading either one for the time being unless it can be done without impacting the current roster greatly.

Non-Roster Players:

Tyler Benson, Brendan Perlini, Colton Sceviour, and Slater Koekkoek. Trading these players wouldn’t impact the current cap situation because none of them are on the active roster.

Targets

Nobody is expecting Holland to acquire a goalie, but I wouldn’t rule it out if there’s a goaltending shuffle in the league on Monday. The Oilers could always use more depth scoring, although that isn’t their biggest concern given the fact that they added Evander Kane already, they’re getting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins back soon, and they have Dylan Holloway waiting in the wings. The most likely targets for the Oilers will be veteran shutdown depth defenders.

The Oilers have scouted Philadelphia and Montreal extensively lately. They’ve also played both teams within the last month. The Oilers have had first hand viewings of likely sellers Detroit, Buffalo, and New Jersey this week. Here are some potential targets from those teams:

Forwards: Derick Brassard, Vinnie Hinostroza, Sam Gagner, Valdislav Namestnikov, Filip Zadina.

Defence: Justin Braun, Brett Kulak, Mark Pysyk.

Detroit’s Nick Leddy would be a nice addition, but his cap hit makes his acquisition unlikely. Marc Staal scored two goals against us on Tuesday, but I’d avoid him. New Jersey’s Damon Severson would be a nice pick-up, but that’s unrealistic like Leddy. 

The Devils have two other players that the Oilers should be interested in for now and the future, but that might cost a pretty penny. Pavel Zacha would add some offensive punch at third line centre. Mackenzie Blackwood could be a sneaky goalie addition, but his injury status could impact his performance if he’s back this year and down the road.

Here are some potential targets from other teams not previously mentioned here:

Forwards: Rickard Rakell, Nick Paul, Alex Galchenyuk, Marcus Johansson, Mason Appleton, Colin Blackwell, Andrew Cogliano, Alexander Barabanov.

Defence: Carson Soucy, Andy Greene, Josh Brown, Erik Gustafsson, Andre Soustr, Radim Simek.

I’m not expecting fireworks for the Oilers on Monday, but I expect Holland to add a depth defenceman. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was to add a forward to bolster the bottom six as well. Based on the way this roster is playing under Woodcroft, it doesn’t need much to prepare for an exciting spring.