April 11, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic recently gave a young Oilers winger with a big smile some praise in a power rankings article. He had this to say:

“One guy who deserves special recognition is Jesse Puljujarvi. He’s been a force in the offensive zone all season and he’s unlocked a new level of play under [Jay] Woodcroft… Puljujarvi is turning into one of the best play drivers in the league.”

Luszczyszyn relies heavily on advanced stats to influence his opinions, and that’s where Puljujarvi has shone brightly this season. Here’s a quick look at some of his advanced stats this season courtesy of Natural Stat Trick:

Corsi For %: 58.60

Fenwick For %: 57.75

Shots For %: 56.62

Goals For %: 64.86

Expected Goals For %: 60.33

Scoring Chances For %: 57.01

Here are those same figures for the time that Woodcroft has been the coach:

CF%: 60

FF%: 60.82

SF%: 61.46

GF%: 90 (!)

xGF%: 65.14

SCF%: 61.73

These numbers are absolutely ridiculous! Puljujarvi is clearly doing a lot of things well.

The advanced stats and his offensive production tell two different stories. His advanced stats say that he’s an elite player in this league and that he should be a fixture on the top line. However, his offensive production suggests that he’s a borderline top six forward at best. Puljujarvi has thirteen goals and 21 assists in 59 games played this season. Those aren’t spectacular numbers, although he has set new career highs in assists and points this season, so there’s progress there.

I’ve always felt that evaluating players strictly on advanced stats is a flawed way of evaluating players. They are mostly based on things like shot attempts, shots, and goals, which are events that a player can be on the ice for and not be responsible for simultaneously. They can offer some insight on players, but I believe that watching a player to see what he does well is also important.

Puljujarvi is a fantastic defensive forward. Ken Hitchcock consistently praised Puljujarvi’s ability to have his stick in the right place while defending and forechecking while he was coaching the Oilers. Puljujarvi is a fast skater once he hits top speed, but he doesn’t have top level acceleration or agility. He reads plays well and uses his speed to get to opponents before they can make plays. Those attributes paired with his persistence and determination to win puck battles are what make him such a good defensive forward.

He’s still gaining confidence on the offensive side of the puck. He keeps a lot of plays alive by reading plays well and using his speed to arrive at the scene and engage physically with opponents. He has the puck on his stick the most often while he’s along the wall. He quickly moves the puck along the wall to keep cycles going. He especially moves it quickly while he’s with Connor McDavid. He defers to McDavid quite often. That’s rarely a bad decision, but there are times where the right play is to shoot the puck or to pass it to someone else.

His hands have been one of the things holding him back. He spends a lot of time in front of the net, but a lot of passes and rebounds handcuff him. His size makes him a great net front option, but his finishing needs to improve if he is going to be a legitimate top line scoring threat.

Finishing plays close to the net is more about poise than anything else in my opinion. Puljujarvi likes to get his shot off quickly and shoot it hard, even when he’s close to the net. The result is usually a low shot that’s easier to save or a miss because he was trying to go too quickly.

There were two examples of that on Saturday against Colorado. McDavid passed him the puck on two separate two on one plays, and he was robbed by Darcy Keumper on both occasions. He shot the first one right into Keumper’s chest, and Keumper made a dazzling stop on the second one. If Puljujarvi had taken a half of a second to stop the puck and pick his target on those chances, he could’ve been the first star in an Oilers win over Colorado. 

He showed better poise on his goal against Anaheim on the Oilers’ most recent California road trip. He was able to collect a loose puck in the slot, make one move to his right, wait for John Gibson to go down, and deposit the puck into an empty net. That’s the kind of poise that Puljujarvi needs to show more often.

The stats show that Puljujarvi makes every centre that he plays with better. I understand the temptation to want him on the top line, but I think the Oilers would benefit from having Puljujarvi lower in the lineup.

He makes McDavid and Leon Draisaitl better, but those two are fantastic without him as well. The reality is that there isn’t much separating Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto offensively. Zack Kassian’s production is right there with them when he plays with McDavid. 

This will be an unpopular opinion, but I would put Kassian back on McDavid’s right wing. Kassian can bring the ability to protect the puck and keep plays alive along the wall like Puljujarvi, but he has a little bit more polish around the net than Puljujarvi does.

My thought is that Puljujarvi’s production is low for a top line player, but it’s fantastic for a third line player. He will continue to have amazing underlying numbers no matter who he plays with, and the Oilers would benefit more from having Puljujarvi’s underlying stats on a third line than by having him on McDavid’s wing.

Derick Brassard looked fantastic with Nugent-Hopkins in his first two games as an Oiler. Their right winger was Puljujarvi. They got broken up after the debacle in Calgary, and the team won six games in a row after that. However, look at their stats as a trio from those two games:

CF%: 65.79

FF%: 66.67

SF%: 65.38

GF%: 66.67

xGF%: 84.68

SCF%: 77.27

That’s a third line that can win hockey games for a team. Brassard has been invisible since that line was broken up. He and Nugent-Hopkins looked to have some chemistry, but losing Puljujarvi hurt them. Every stat above went down significantly for the Brassard and Nugent-Hopkins duo after they lost Puljujarvi. Their CF% of 33.82% is the highest of any figure for that duo without Puljujarvi.

Putting Kassian with McDavid would get more out of Kassian, and putting Puljujarvi on a third line with Brassard and Nugent-Hopkins would get more out of Brassard and the third line as a whole. It’s not about Kassian not having “earned it”. It’s not about Puljujarvi being “demoted”. It’s about getting the most out of everyone on the roster.

My ideal lines would be these:

Kane-McDavid-Kassian

Hyman-Draisaitl-Yamamoto

Brassard-Nugent-Hopkins-Puljujarvi

Foegele-McLeod-Ryan