July 5, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

When looking at how the Edmonton Oilers forward group has been constructed, the strength of the team is obviously at centre.

The Oilers have the two best players on the planet as their top two centers. They have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, a former first-overall pick, who can play second or third line centre, and Ryan McLeod, who is quickly proving that he can be a solid third line centre. Derek Ryan and Devin Shore are decent depth depth options at centre, as well.

It’s clear that the left side is stronger than the right side. Zach Hyman finished third in team scoring with 54 points in 76 games this past season, and averaged a point-per-game in the playoffs. Warren Foegele had 26 points during the regular season, which doesn’t seem like much production on the surface. However, Foegele outscored every other player who consistently played in the bottom-six.

Dylan Holloway is poised to crack the opening-night roster in 2022-23. The Oilers could play Nugent-Hopkins, or McLeod at left wing. There’s a chance Evander Kane could be back, too.

Kailer Yamamoto led the right wingers with 41 points last season, which was also a career-high for him. Jesse Puljujarvi, who spent most of the season playing on Connor McDavid’s wing, tallied 36 points in 65 games. Ryan only played right wing in the second half of the season, but he was much better in that position than he was at centre. He had 22 points in 75 games.

Zack Kassian had 19 points in 58 games which resulted in a slightly better points per game rate than Ryan’s, but that was still low for what is expected from him. The right side is severely lacking in comparison to the left side. I have believed that the right side has needed to be rebuilt for quite a while, and this off-season is setting up for just such a change. They need more production from one of their top six right wingers, and they need more production out of their depth right wingers.

As I noted in my previous piece, the Oilers only have $7,130,205 in cap space according to CapFriendly, with three important RFAs to re-sign and other positions to improve. Two of those RFAs play right wing.

It appears more and more likely that Puljujarvi will be traded based on recent reports by Ryan Rishaug. Whether you think it’s a mistake to move Puljujarvi or not, it sounds like it will likely happen. That would open up a space in the top-six at right wing.

Zack Kassian is the biggest issue at right wing though. Kassian’s $3.2 million cap hit is fair for a middle six player that produces consistently, but that isn’t Kassian anymore. He’s capable of moonlighting in the top six if need be, but that’s not a great backup plan. He has been invisible while playing in the bottom six for the past two seasons. There was hope that he would step it up in the playoffs. He did increase his level of physicality, but his impact was limited. The right side needs more speed and more points, and moving Kassian out is the clearest path to that goal.

It’s bad enough that Puljujarvi is likely getting moved. I can’t see the Oilers moving both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto. Yamamoto will likely stay and he will likely continue to play in the top six. Jay Woodcroft seems to like Derek Ryan at third line right wing. Raphael Lavoie, Ty Tullio, and Xavier Bourgault are promising right wingers in the system; but none of them are expected to be NHL ready for the coming season. Yamamoto is the only right-winger that can play in the top six. The Oilers need a top six right winger.

The prospects aren’t ready yet, but they do have one internal option for a top six right winger. Leon Draisaitl played right wing from game six in LA all the way through until the end of the playoffs. He was able to produce 25 points in eleven games at right wing. Twenty of those points were at even strength. He did that on a sprained ankle. That is an insane level of production! He did that while playing with Connor McDavid and Evander Kane mostly, but that takes nothing away from his achievements.

It seems counterintuitive to take the second best player on the planet out of his natural position, but Draisaitl can produce from any of the three forward positions. He is the best face-off man on the team, but he can take draws and then move to the wing position. That isn’t that hard for professional hockey players. He would be more productive than any right-winger available in the league, and he’s already under contract.

The Oilers could afford to do that because of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nugent-Hopkins wasn’t the player that we know he can be while he was playing left wing. Think about this. He played left wing in 84 games from the start of the 2020-21 season until Evander Kane arrived last season and averaged 0.32 even strength points per game while mostly playing with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. He was moved to the third line centre position after Kane arrived, and he averaged 0.32 even strength points per game for the rest of the season. The difference was that he was playing with the likes of Warren Foegele and Derek Ryan for the majority of those games at centre.

He was just as productive at even strength while playing centre with inferior wingers as he was when he was playing the wing for McDavid or Draisaitl.

The list below shows the five on five points per game averages for Nugent-Hopkins in every season of his career thus far and his most common linemates in those seasons according to Natural Stat Trick:

11-12: 0.45 (Eberle, Hall)

13: 0.275 (Eberle, Hall)

13-14: 0.3875 (Eberle, Hall)

14-15: 0.49 (Eberle, Hall)

15-16: 0.35 (Eberle, Hall)

16-17: 0.32 (Eberle, Lucic)

17-18: 0.45 (Lucic, Maroon)

18-19: 0.41 (McDavid, Chiasson)

19-20: 0.52 (Draisaitl, Yamamoto)

20-21: 0.27 (McDavid, Puljujarvi)

21-22: 0.32 (Yamamoto, Draisaitl)

Nugent-Hopkins didn’t start playing the wing at all until late in the 2018-19 season when he was put on McDavid’s left side down the stretch. McDavid was his most common linemate, but Alex Chiasson was second on that list.

The 29-year-old played left wing for 27 games with Draisaitl and Yamamoto, and they went on a hot streak the likes of which hasn’t been seen again since. He got 28 of his 34 points at five on five during that 27 game stretch. That 0.52 five-on-five points-per-game pace was an outlier.

2020-21 was the only season that he was a full-time left winger, and his five-on-five points per game rate that season was the worst of his career. This past season was tied for his third lowest mark. Nugent-Hopkins was moved to centre part way through this season. Per Hockey Reference, his even strength points per game rate went up from 0.28 to 0.32 after he was moved to third line centre even though the quality of his linemates went down.

The Oilers will get high numbers out of Draisaitl regardless of which position he plays. The Oilers will get more out of Nugent-Hopkins if he plays centre between two productive wingers. The Oilers need more out of their right side, and Draisaitl can bring that. Draisaitl should be on Nugent-Hopkins’ right side. I believe that Nugent-Hopkins could put up the best five on five numbers of his career if he was to centre a line with Draisaitl and another legitimate top six winger whether it is Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Claude Giroux, or someone else.

The other great thing about putting Draisaitl at right wing rather than bringing someone in to fill that void is that it wouldn’t block any of the right wing prospects that will be ready within the next couple of seasons.

They could also afford to put Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl together because of Ryan McLeod’s growth. McLeod got 21 points in 71 games last season. Seven of those points came in the last eighteen games of the regular season. That was his first full NHL season. He proved that he’s a smart defender, and he became more and more confident in the offensive zone throughout the season.

McLeod had four points in 16 games in the playoffs, which was a slight regression from his regular season performance. However, it wasn’t a big drop-off. I’m expecting his growth to continue next season. I believe that he can get the 30 points that the Oilers need out of a third line centre.

No matter which way you slice it, the Oilers will need to add a top six forward and rebuild the right side this summer.