July 12, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

With the NHL Free Agency set to open on Wednesday, rumours involving the Edmonton Oilers have been flying around.

Per PuckPedia, the Oilers have roughly $14.1 million to work with this off-season, not including Stuart Skinner and Dylan Holloway. However, I expect they will be on the opening-night roster.

The Oilers will have Oscar Klefbom’s $4.167 million on LTIR for the duration of the season, and Mike Smith’s $2.2 million is likely going to be there, too. That would bring the new total amount of available cap space to around $20.5 million.

That sounds like a lot of cap space, but it really isn’t when you consider all of the spots that Ken Holland needs to fill.

There are currently fourteen players on the roster according to PuckPedia, which means that the Oilers can add nine more players to the active roster. They have eight forwards, five defencemen, and one goalie on the roster. The Oilers will need six forwards, two defencemen, and one goalie to round out the roster. They could employ a slightly smaller roster, but that isn’t a recipe for success.

They have three restricted free agents (RFAs). Kailer Yamamoto’s qualifying offer was $1.125 million, but he’s eligible for arbitration. He just had a 20-goal season, so I expect that he will command more than that. That doesn’t mean that he will choose to go to arbitration, but I feel like he won’t have a contract signed by Wednesday. I believe that his next contract will carry an AAV of approximately $3.5 million, perhaps closer to $4 million.

The Oilers are apparently not impressed by the potential returns being discussed for Jesse Puljujarvi. Ken Holland did say that situation could stretch out into the summer. I don’t know the truth of what’s happening behind closed doors with Puljujarvi and the Oilers, but I get the sense that it could get ugly this summer. Puljujarvi’s qualifying offer was $1.41 million, but he’s eligible for arbitration. He did a lot of things well away from the puck, he made his teammates better, and he produced at a top six level; but Jay Woodcroft barely used him in the playoffs and he was expected to produce more than he did playing with Connor McDavid. I would expect Puljujarvi’s next deal to be around $3 million per season. 

If Puljujarvi is traded, then I would expect his replacement to come in at about the same price. Connor Brown has been linked to the Oilers as well. The Ottawa forward has a cap hit of $3.6 million. That would be a trade that would need to happen, but that’s the type of player that would replace Puljujarvi on the Oilers roster.

Ryan McLeod also needs a new deal. He’s shown that he’s a valuable player for the Oilers, but he’s not arbitration eligible and his offensive production to date doesn’t merit a big pay day. I would expect his new deal to be approximately $1.25 million per season, maybe a little bit less.

Duncan Keith’s retirement gave the Oilers a lot of cap space, but it also left them with a position to fill. Brett Kulak would be a great fit in that spot. Mark Spector reported that he’s asking for a four year deal with an AAV of $2.5 million. However, Frank Seravalli reported that Kulak will be exploring his options on the open market. That doesn’t rule him out for the Oilers, but it’s not a good sign.

If those four players are re-signed for the values that I suggested here, then the Oilers would have $10,060,667 in cap space that they would need to add five players.

If they were to sign Campbell for $5 million per season, then they would have $5,060,667 left to add four players.

One of those four players needs to be a top six winger. If they were to sign Kane for the reported offer of $4.75 million, then they would have $310,667 million in cap space to add a couple of depth forwards and a depth defenceman.

They also need to make sure that they have enough LTIR relief space available for recalls during the season. The math doesn’t allow Holland to do everything that is being rumoured.

The Oilers will likely have to shop in the bargain bin for a top six winger rather than signing Kane. Mason Marchment, Sonny Milano, and Marcus Johansson are cheaper potential options. Max Domi might be available at a reduced rate because he can’t seem to find a fit anywhere. Perhaps Phil Kessel would sign for less to play on a contending team.

The Oilers would be wise to shop for a goalie in the bargain bin too. Stuart Skinner could evolve into a number one, and making a five year commitment to a UFA right now could block Skinner from an eventual starter’s role in Edmonton. 

Ilya Samsonov was not qualified by the Capitals, and he will become a UFA on Wednesday. The 25 year old former first rounder had a .913 save percentage and a 2.54 goals against average in 2019-20, but he has had two disappointing seasons since then. He could be worth a flier.

Bargain bin shopping seems like an inevitability unless Holland is going to move Tyson Barrie and/or Warren Foegele.

There are a lot of moving parts for the Oilers. All I can say with certainty is that the Oilers will be active in the next few weeks.