September 10, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

Prior to the 2012 NHL Draft, few would have guessed that both Nail Yakupov and Ryan Murray would eventually play games for the Edmonton Oilers. I certainly wouldn’t have, but that will have happened if Murray suits up in the orange and blue this seasons. Murray signed a one-year, $750,000 contract with the Oilers on September 2.

Murray has played in 432 NHL games since being taken second-overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2012. Injuries have prevented Murray from becoming an impact defenceman, but he has been a reliable second and third pairing defenceman during his career. He won’t dazzle anyone with his offence and his fancy stats are pedestrian. He’s a quality depth defenceman that can play higher in the lineup in a pinch.

You can never have too many quality defencemen. This signing adds to the Oilers’ depth and it provides some insurance in case of an injury. However, the Oilers are tight to the cap and they have some young defence prospects that can step in and contribute at the NHL level right now, so the signing was a little bit curious.

I’m going to show you the current cap situation for the Oilers. You could simply go to CapFriendly, or PuckPedia for this information, but I also keep my own spreadsheet with this information because those sites don’t use the exact same roster configurations. One list will often exclude a player on the active roster that the other will have. My active roster includes the 11 forwards that are signed to NHL contracts and Dylan Holloway, and all eight defencemen that are currently under contract. I did not include prospects that are unlikely to make the opening night roster like Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samorukov. Here it is:

Forwards:

Kane ($5.125 M) McDavid ($12.5 M) Puljujarvi ($3 M)

Hyman ($5.5 M) Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125 M) Draisaitl ($8.5 M)

Foegele ($2.75 M) McLeod (RFA) Yamamoto ($3.1 M)

Holloway ($925 k) Janmark ($1.25 M) Ryan ($1.25 M)

Shore ($850 k)

Defence:

Nurse ($9.25 M) Ceci ($3.25 M)

Kulak ($2.75 M) Bouchard ($863,333)

Murray ($750 k) Barrie ($4.5 M)

Broberg ($863,333) Koekkoek ($925 k)

Goalies:

Campbell ($5 M)

Skinner ($750 k)

Cap Relief:

LTIR (once season starts): Klefbom ($4.167 M), Smith ($2.2 M)

Dead Cap:

Retained: Lucic ($750 k)

Buyouts: Neal ($1,916,667), Sekera ($1.5 M)

Overage: $896 k

Total: $90,236,333

Overview:

ACSL: $82.5 M

LTIR: $6,367,000

New Upper Limit: $88,867,000

Cap Space: -$1,339,333

Active Roster: 22 (23 once McLeod signs)

Once you factor in LTIR, the Oilers are currently $1,339,333 over their upper limit. That number will increase by whatever Ryan McLeod signs for, which will likely be close to $900,000 for one year according to Bob Stauffer on last Friday’s edition of Oilers Now. If that’s the case, the Oilers will need to shed at least $2,339,333 to become cap compliant.

Out of all of the names on this active roster, only Holloway and Philip Broberg are waivers exempt. It would be easy to send them to Bakersfield. However, if the Oilers were to send either of them down, then their cap hit would increase because their potential performance bonuses would be added to their cap hits because the team will be operating in LTIR. It’s more wise to keep them on the active roster from day one from a cap perspective.

This means that the Oilers have two options to become cap compliant. They can trade a player with a cap hit higher than $2,339,333 or they can place other players on waivers and send them down to Bakersfield. Either scenario would mean that the Oilers will likely end up with an active roster of less than 23 players.

Murray’s signing spells trouble for Slater Koekkoek. He took a personal leave of absence from the team last season. He didn’t play for them in the playoffs either. He’s still a decent depth defenceman, but his cap hit is $225,000 higher than Murray’s. That matters to a cap strapped team. His $925,000 could easily be buried in the minors. Devin Shore didn’t play a game for the Oilers in the playoffs this past spring. His $850,000 could also easily be buried in the minors. Sending those two down to Bakersfield would equal $1.775 million off the books, which is $564,333 short of the goal. 

One more player would need to be sent down. Those seven defencemen are pretty much set in stone, so it would have to be one of the forwards. It would have to be Derek Ryan or Mattias Janmark. Sending either player down to Bakersfield would save the team $1.125 million against the cap, which would get the Oilers $560,667 under the cap.

That could work, but that would leave them absolutely no room for potential call ups during the season. Call ups count for their entire cap hit when a team is in LTIR, not just their daily cap hit, so the Oilers will need to have some space for those situations. This hypothetical scenario would leave the active roster at 20 players, so there would be no extra players in the press box on a given night.

The best option from a cap perspective is to trade a player out. The top choices for players to move out are still Warren Foegele, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Tyson Barrie. My plan would be to move Foegele out for whatever they can get for him and then to bury Koekkoek’s contract. That would save the Oilers $3,675,000 against the cap and leave them with an active roster of 21 players after McLeod signs. That would put them $2,335,667 under the cap. That would give them enough space for some mid-season recalls and to potentially add a player at the trade deadline. Stauffer also suggested that the Oilers will likely bring some players to camp on PTOs. They will want room to potentially sign any of those players.

Foegele would be a loss, but the left wing position is much deeper than the right side so they can afford to move a player out of that position. I feel that Puljujarvi does too many things well and is too young to give up on him now. Barrie is a little redundant with Bouchard in the lineup, but that added scoring from the blueline is a nice luxury to have.

These would be my lines and pairings if Foegele and Koekkoek were to be moved out:

Kane – McDavid – Puljujarvi

Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl

Janmark – McLeod – Yamamoto

Holloway – Shore – Ryan

Nurse – Ceci

Kulak – Bouchard

Murray – Barrie

Broberg

I could see the Oilers utilizing the eleven forwards and seven defenceman strategy quite often throughout the season. I don’t see the top heavy defence usage from last season changing this season. Using all seven defencemen would split the responsibilities among the group a little bit more evenly. It would also allow Holloway and Shore to get a few nights off every once in a while because Holloway is a rookie and Shore doesn’t need to be in the lineup every night. I see Broberg getting used as the seventh defenceman and being rotated in with different partners because of his skill set and his experience.