October 4, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

Dylan Holloway had a heck of a night last night. He scored a hat trick while playing on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, who moved over to the right wing on this particular line. Naturally, this has ignited the thought that Holloway will play in the top six to start the season.

Sportsnet’s Mark Spector spoke during the second intermission of last night’s broadcast. He said that the third line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan McLeod, and Warren Foegele is set; so if you’re not in the top six, then you’re in the bottom three. He then outlined a battle between Holloway, Kailer Yamamoto, and Jesse Puljujarvi for two top six wing positions. 

Dan Murphy then jokingly asked him why he’s trying to run Puljujarvi out of town, and Spector went on to remind the audience that he’s been on the trade market for two summers now and he suggested that Puljujarvi doesn’t think the game well enough. Naturally, this has caused an online debate about the merit of trading Puljujarvi.

First of all, while Holloway did have a spectacular night, he did it against a watered down version of the Canucks. Secondly, Draisaitl was in on exactly zero of Holloway’s goals last night. He didn’t ride on the big German’s coattails. My deduction from last night’s performance was not that he and Draisaitl need to be together or that Holloway needs to be in the top six. It was that Holloway proved that he is too good for the AHL.

I’m not certain that the Nugent-Hopkins, McLeod, and Foegele line is set. The line for the first game of the preseason was Foegele, McLeod, and Puljujarvi. The line for the third preseason game was Holloway, McLeod, and Foegele. The Nugent-Hopkins, McLeod, and Foegele line was together last night and for the game against Calgary last Friday. They have skated together on practice days all camp, so Spector could be right; but I don’t believe that anything is set in stone yet.

Here’s the reality. The Oilers have eleven forwards that would be considered top nine forwards. That means that two players that people might want in the top nine will be playing on the fourth line. Ken Holland said that Holloway won’t make the team if he’s only going to play six or seven minutes per night, which suggests that Holloway won’t play on the fourth line.

Let’s establish one thing here. Top six forwards need to produce points. There are thirty two teams in the league, and thirty two multiplied by six equals 192 top six forwards in the NHL. Obviously that is simplistic logic because teams change their lines often and players get hurt. Some teams are deeper than others, which means some teams might have more than six forwards within the top 192 in scoring. Nonetheless, the 192nd forward on last season’s scoring list scored 34 points. Yamamoto scored 41 points in 81 games (T-154th), and Puljujarvi (T-180th) scored 36 points in 65 games.

If we look at it from a points per game perspective, the 192nd ranked forward from last season scored 0.54 points per game. Yamamoto scored 0.51 points per game (T-200th) and Puljujarvi scored 0.55 points per game (T-186th).

Both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi scored like top six forwards last season, although Yamamoto fell just short of that on a per game basis. I would qualify both as middle six forwards. Neither deserves to play on the top line, and either would make a third line quite strong.

Foegele scored 26 points in 82 games last season, which would tie him for 245th among forwards in points and 341st in points per game. That would put him as a low-end third liner based on total points and a high-end fourth liner based on points per game.

My point here is that if any of Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, or Foegele should be playing on the fourth line, it’s Foegele. There is no planet where Foegele should be playing ahead of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi.

If Holloway does play in the top six, then this is how the lines SHOULD look:

Kane – McDavid – Hyman

Holloway – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi

Nugent-Hopkins – McLeod – Yamamoto

Janmark – Malone – Foegele

That fourth line is up for interpretation, but that’s how the right side should look from a point scoring perspective in that scenario. However, I think Holloway is better suited to start on the third line. He could have Nugent-Hopkins as a centre to start his career, which would be beneficial to him.

Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto

Hyman – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi

Holloway – Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele

McLeod – Malone – Ryan

That would put McLeod on the fourth line, which isn’t ideal.

The Oilers weakness in their top six is on the right side, and they have two players not currently playing right wing in the top six that can play right wing. They also have Nugent-Hopkins and potentially Holloway that could play left wing in the top six in addition to Kane and Hyman. Pushing one of Hyman or Draisaitl to the right wing would slot one of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi on the third line, which is a better scenario then having them both in the top six.

Kane – McDavid – Hyman

Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi

Holloway – McLeod – Yamamoto

Janmark – Malone – Foegele

This is my personal favourite potential set of line combinations:

Kane – McDavid – Puljujarvi

Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl

Holloway – McLeod – Yamamoto

Janmark – Malone – Foegele

This configuration only has one player playing a position that isn’t his natural position, which is Draisaitl. Draisaitl is a natural centre, but we’ve seen him produce big numbers from the right wing. He can produce from anywhere on the ice. Nugent-Hopkins is better suited as a center than a winger, but he needs elite wingers to be able to produce top six offence at even strength. He hasn’t centred elite wingers since the Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle days, and calling them “elite” is a bit of a stretch.

McLeod seems more comfortable at centre as well. Pairing McLeod and Holloway on a third line would give it unbelievable speed. Adding Yamamoto would make that one of the fastest third lines in the league, if not the fastest. Janmark and Foegele can both play in the top nine, but they are better fits as fourth liners on elite teams, which is what the Oilers have the depth and the talent to be this year.

I believe that there is still a lot to be determined when it comes to line combinations and roster battles this week. Jay Woodcroft could change his lines prior to the first game. He could change them after three games or five games. Spector might be right in saying that the Oilers will start with a third line of Nugent-Hopkins, McLeod, and Foegele; but I doubt that anything is set just yet.

As for the Puljujarvi trade debate, there is still a realistic chance that he will get moved. However, the Oilers are in no rush to move him. We know they are tight against the cap. If the roster were to stay exactly as it will be on day one of the regular season with no call-ups, then the Oilers will be alright. If the Oilers run into injury trouble and need to call players up from Bakerfield, then they will need to think about trading someone. Nothing has to happen before the season starts. I still think it’s a mistake to trade Puljujarvi now, but he’s only got a few more years until he reaches unrestricted free agency and Xavier Bourgault is coming.