October 9, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

Devin Shore being placed on waivers Sunday pretty much confirms my math presented in my piece earlier today. Let me be clear though. NHL teams need to submit their opening rosters on Monday, but that roster doesn’t have to be the roster that we see for the first game of the season. The Edmonton Oilers don’t play until Wednesday. They have two days to make roster moves before their first game.

The below proposed roster submission for Monday would leave the Edmonton Oilers with a new salary cap that is $167 (or $165 if PuckPedia’s numbers are used) less than the maximum possible number.

Kane ($5.125 M) McDavid ($12.5 M) Yamamoto ($3.1 M)

Holloway ($925 k) Draisaitl ($8.5 M) Hyman ($5.5 M)

Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125 M) McLeod ($798 k) Puljujarvi ($3 M)

Foegele ($2.75 M) Malone ($762 k) Ryan ($1.25 M)

Nurse ($9.25 M) Ceci ($3.25 M)

Kulak ($2.75 M) Bouchard ($863,333)

Murray ($750 k) Barrie ($4.5 M)

Broberg ($863,333)

Campbell ($5 M)

Skinner ($750 k)

Buried: Janmark ($125 k)

LTIR (once season starts): Klefbom ($4.167 M), Smith ($2.2 M), Benson ($750,000)

Retained: Lucic ($750 k)

Buyouts: Neal ($1,916,667), Sekera ($1.5 M)

Overage: $896 k

Total: $89,616,833

New Upper Limit: $89,616,833

Cap Space: $0

Active Roster: 21

The differences between this roster and the one that I proposed back when Ryan McLeod signed is that Mattias Janmark is buried instead of Derek Ryan, and Tyler Benson was not on LTIR. The result on the cap is exactly the same though. The Oilers are still in a position to submit this roster on Monday because they did not send Brad Malone down to Bakersfield after he cleared waivers on Sunday.

This opening roster submission would give the Oilers the highest salary cap that they could possibly have to start the season. They will be able to make some roster moves after this roster (or the one that they choose) is submitted if they so choose. The opening night roster is a totally different roster than the one they need to submit on Monday.

For example, many members of the mainstream media in Edmonton have suggested that Markus Niemelainen has outplayed Philip Broberg at camp and that he will be on the opening night roster over Broberg. I personally disagree with the assessment of their play in the preseason, but swapping Broberg for Niemelainen would create $100,833 in cap space.

That would allow the Oilers to send Malone to Bakersfield and to have one of Devin Shore or James Hamblin on the opening night roster. Shore had a strong second half of his camp, but coach Jay Wooccroft spoke glowingly about Hamblin and his chances of making the team. Basically, the Oilers can have a combination of Broberg and Malone or Niemelainen and one of Shore or Hamblin on the opening night roster.

Here’s what it would look like with Niemelainen and Hamblin on the opening night roster:

Kane ($5.125 M) McDavid ($12.5 M) Yamamoto ($3.1 M)

Holloway ($925 k) Draisaitl ($8.5 M) Hyman ($5.5 M)

Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125 M) McLeod ($798 k) Puljujarvi ($3 M)

Foegele ($2.75 M) Hamblin ($807,500) Ryan ($1.25 M)

Nurse ($9.25 M) Ceci ($3.25 M)

Kulak ($2.75 M) Bouchard ($863,333)

Murray ($750 k) Barrie ($4.5 M)

Niemelainen ($762,500)

Campbell ($5 M)

Skinner ($750 k)

Buried: Janmark ($125 k)

LTIR: Klefbom ($4.167 M), Smith ($2.2 M), Benson ($750,000)

Retained: Lucic ($750 k)

Buyouts: Neal ($1,916,667), Sekera ($1.5 M)

Overage: $896 k

Total: $89,561,000

New Upper Limit: $89,616,833

Cap Space: $55,833

Active Roster: 21

Here’s the thing to remember though. Tyler Benson will return to the lineup in a matter of weeks. He will need to be removed from LTIR at that point. That will reduce the Oilers’ salary cap by $750,000, making it $88,866,833.

The opening night roster outlined above would be $694,167 OVER that number. They could keep that roster until Benson returns, but the Oilers would need to shed at least $694,167 upon Benson returning to the lineup in this scenario. That’s one player being sent down to Bakersfield.

A lot can change in a few weeks. Benson could play, or he could be sent down. Hamblin could have a strong start and keep his spot, or he could get sent down once Benson returns. Shore could earn his spot back. Newly acquired Klim Kostin could barge his way onto the roster. Kostin has the same cap hit as Benson, and he has more NHL games played at a younger age. Broberg could dominate in Bakersfield and force the Oilers to bring him back, which could impact their choice of which forward to keep.

Here’s a potential roster that could be in place once Benson returns:

Kane ($5.125 M) McDavid ($12.5 M) Yamamoto ($3.1 M)

Holloway ($925 k) Draisaitl ($8.5 M) Hyman ($5.5 M)

Nugent-Hopkins ($5.125 M) McLeod ($798 k) Puljujarvi ($3 M)

Benson ($750,000) Ryan ($1.25 M) Foegele ($2.75 M)

Nurse ($9.25 M) Ceci ($3.25 M)

Kulak ($2.75 M) Bouchard ($863,333)

Murray ($750 k) Barrie ($4.5 M)

Broberg ($863,333)

Campbell ($5 M)

Skinner ($750 k)

Buried: Janmark ($125 k)

LTIR: Klefbom ($4.167 M), Smith ($2.2 M)

Retained: Lucic ($750 k)

Buyouts: Neal ($1,916,667), Sekera ($1.5 M)

Overage: $896 k

Total: $88,854,333

New Upper Limit: $88,866,833

Cap Space: $12,500

Active Roster: 21

This article should serve as a reminder to not get too excited about what happens on Monday. It should also serve as a reminder to not get too worked up about the roster that the Oilers have on Wednesday to face the Canucks. There will be many changes throughout the season.