October 31, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

A perfect road trip was a bit of a relief after a mediocre homestand. The Edmonton Oilers sit with a 6-3 record on Halloween. Their win against the Calgary Flames on Saturday night pushed them past their provincial rivals and into second place in the Pacific Division. They seem to have settled in after a shaky start to the season. 

There are quite a few familiar trends happening again this season. Connor McDavid is leading the league in scoring again. Leon Draisaitl is right on his heels once again. The big German is in third spot, just two points behind McDavid.

The team has allowed 3.11 goals against per game, which puts them in a tie for 17th in the league. It’s not as if the defence has been stellar, and the blue line is the biggest weakness for the club on paper.

The penalty kill finally killed off every penalty in a game for the first time this season on Saturday night. The penalty kill has had many awful stretches in recent years, so this isn’t new for the Oilers.

The goaltending has been inconsistent. Jack Campbell has a .888 save percentage and a 3.89 goals against average. He’s been let down by the defence in front of him a lot, so his numbers are a little deceiving; but the numbers aren’t great. Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner is leading the league with a .955 save percentage, and his goals against average is only 1.59. We just watched multiple years of a Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen tandem, so Oilers fans are familiar with inconsistent goaltending.

Skinner’s performance is one thing that’s a bit different about this Oilers team. The team has had goalies go on hot streaks, but I don’t recall an Oilers goaltender leading the league in any goaltending statistical category at any point in any recent season. That’s not the most notable difference between this Oilers team and past versions.

The biggest difference in my estimation is that these Oilers are outscoring their opponents 19-15 at five-on-five. McDavid and Draisaitl rarely get outscored, but the bottom six forwards on the Oilers traditionally fail to keep their heads above water at even strength. 

We’ve watched a long list of bottom six players come to Edmonton and fail to contribute to the cause in a positive way. Kyle Turris, Colton Sceviour, Brendan Perlini, Tyler Ennis, Gaetan Haas, Joakim Nygard, Dominik Kahun, James Neal, and Josh Archibald are just some of the names… the list is seemingly endless. That only goes back three seasons! This has been a problem for many years now.

That’s not the case this year. A line with Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Jesse Puljujarvi was united for the third game of the season against the Buffalo Sabres. They have spent most of their time in the offensive zone, as the following numbers suggest:

CF%: 62.5% (40-24)

SF%: 51.52% (17-16)

GF%: 50% (1-1)

xGF%: 67.66%

SCF%: 75% (21-7)

It’s been a big ask for a third line to break even at five-on-five in years past, and this line is doing exactly that. The underlying numbers say that merely breaking even in the goal share column is an underachievement. They read well off each other. They’ve been aggressive on the forecheck. McLeod is an excellent puck transporter, and Foegele and Puljujarvi have been disrupting opponents in the offensive zone. It’s a fast line that can contribute at both ends of the ice.

Having a third line playing this well means that the top two lines don’t have to outscore the mistakes of the bottom six. I doubt that McDavid and Draisaitl think like that, but this reliable third line takes pressure off them. That combined with goaltending that gives up fewer soft goals is a positive sign for the Oilers. It’s almost spooky because it’s so different from past seasons.

The Oilers have been missing a capable third line centre for a long time. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a nice luxury to have in that spot, but he’s too skilled to not be playing in the top six. McLeod’s emergence as a capable third line centre allows Nugent-Hopkins to play higher in the lineup. McLeod already has three goals on the season, two of which have come at even strength. If he can maintain this production and if the underlying numbers start to result in more goals for that third line, then that will go a long way towards the Oilers winning the Pacific Division.