November 24, 2022 by Ryan Lotsberg

Edmonton Oilers Offence Challenges in the Bottom 6

The Oilers have scored at a rate of 1.11 5v5 goals per hour without McDavid and Draisaitl this season.

That is the lowest it has *ever* been in the McDavid and Draisaitl era.

For comparison, they scored 1.52 goals per 60 without 97/29 under Chiarelli from 17-18 – 18-19.

— Sid (@NHL_Sid) November 24, 2022

It’s the zombie problem. Just when we think that we’ve solved it, it rears its ugly head. This forward group was touted as the deepest group the Edmonton Oilers have had since the 1980s; but it isn’t pissing a drop. 49 shots wasn’t enough to get even one goal by Ilya Sorokin on Wednesday night.

Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman have accounted for 68.18% of Oilers goals this season. If you want to add Evander Kane’s five goals to that, then it’s 75.76%.  It’s pretty obvious that the offence is coming from the top two lines and the powerplay. Only four other Oilers forwards have goals this season: Ryan McLeod (3), Warren Foegele (3), Derek Ryan (2), and Jesse Puljujarvi (1).

McLeod started the season with three goals in six games, but he’s gone fourteen straight without scoring. Despite the cold streak, his goals per game rate is higher this year than it was last year. He scored nine goals in 71 games last season. However, he’s not getting assists at nearly the same rate as last season. He’s got two in 20 games, whereas he had twelve in 71 games last season.

Related: Filling the Void After Kane’s Injury

Foegele has three goals in his last seven games, but he didn’t score until game thirteen. He only had one measly assist in those thirteen games, his only one of the season. Foegele has added value on the penalty kill this season, but the offence hasn’t been there. Hopefully he can keep scoring now that he’s broken his slump and is playing in the top six.

Jesse Puljujarvi only has one goal and three assists in his 20 games. That’s a sixteen point pace. He had 36 points in 65 games last season! He clearly isn’t the player that he was last year. In the last year he had COVID, he had a lower body injury that cost him about a month, and he sustained a shoulder injury in the playoffs. The contract negotiation and the trade rumours didn’t help matters much either. I’m not trying to make excuses for him, but he’s got to find a way to get past it all and start putting the puck in the net. He’s had chances, but he’s lacked composure and finish.

Dylan Holloway had an outstanding preseason, but he’s done nothing in the regular season. He’s got two assists in 16 games. His confidence has clearly taken a hit after his injury and a few costly turnovers. He’s barely getting any ice time. Holloway is a smart kid and he’s got the physical skills to be able to contribute. He hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity to play with skilled players, and he’s crashed and burned in the few opportunities that he has had. It might be time to send him back to Bakersfield for a little while to get him some ice time.

Kailer Yamamoto has only played in thirteen games due to injury, but he only got three assists in those games. He doesn’t even have a goal yet despite playing all but two games in the top six. His hands have seemingly deserted him. I don’t ever recall him fumbling as many pucks as he has this season. I’m not sure if his injury has anything to do with his performance thus far, but he will need to step it up whenever he returns to the lineup.

Derek Ryan and Devin Shore hardly see the ice, but they’ve only combined for four points. I actually think they’ve played decently well, but the offence just isn’t there. It’s also hard to score when you’re only playing seven minutes a night.

The onus is on the consistent fixtures in the top nine to produce, and it isn’t happening.

The team’s depth has certainly taken a significant hit after losing Kane and then not having Yamamoto. Mattias Janmark and Klim Kostin were called up after Kane went onto LTIR. Janmark has one assist in six games, while Kostin hasn’t recorded a point yet. Janmark got a look on a line with McDavid recently. Janmark has had a few chances, but hasn’t been able to convert. The same can be said of Kostin. I’ll praise his physicality and willingness to get to the dirty areas, but that needs to turn into results at some point.

The 2017-18 Oilers had Milan Lucic, Jujhar Khaira, Drake Caggiula, Mike Cammaleri, Mark Letestu, Zack Kassian, Anton Slepyshev, Ty Rattie, Pontus Aberg, Brad Malone, and Jussi Jokinen. We can add Alex Chiasson, Kyle Brodziak, Tobias Reider, Sam Gagner, Ryan Strome, Ryan Spooner, Colby Cave (may he rest in peace), Joseph Gambardella, Josh Currie, Cooper Marody, and Patrick Russell for the 2018-19 season. Nobody will convince me that the names up there were more talented during those two seasons than this current group of Oilers depth forwards is. 

A lack of depth scoring has been an issue since the dawn of the Decade of Darkness. Many players have come here, and only a select few improved upon their previous results when they were Oilers. Patrick Maroon, Alex Chiasson, and Zack Kassian are the three that stick out to me as guys that had temporary offensive success as Oilers; but their successes came while playing with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. Even guys like Dominik Kahun and Josh Archibald that had exemplary underlying numbers with previous teams came here and failed to repeat those performances. 

For whatever reason, the Oilers bottom six is where offence goes to die. I wish I could pinpoint the issue. Maybe it’s the water afterall. Whatever it is, it needs to change if the OIlers have hopes of contending this year. The injuries to Kane and Yamamoto have intensified the need for that change.

I think they’re on the right track with some of the young players and prospects that will be occupying those spots in the next few years. Puljujarvi and Yamamoto have both shown that they can produce at the level of middle six forwards. McLeod and Holloway both have the speed and the hands to be able to get some points. Foegele needs to bring his best more consistently, but he can be physical and he pulls out some one-on-one hands once in a while.

Xavier Bourgault is an exciting prospect. He’s a smart player that can win board battles and make touch passes at both ends of the ice, and he’s a sniper. I would like to think that at least one of Raphael Lavoie, Carter Savoie, and Ty Tullio will turn into a meaningful contributor for the Oilers. Reid Schaefer isn’t as close as the others, but he’s looking like a great pick as well. Those guys can’t help the Oilers now though. 

The Oilers’ struggles aren’t all the depth forwards’ fault. The defence has struggled with coverage and the goaltending has been inconsistent. Having said that, the depth forwards need to pull up their socks and find a way to contribute.