January 8, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Once again, the Edmonton Oilers blew a two goal lead at home and lost a game, this time to the Colorado Avalanche. As has been the case the past few years in Edmonton, the team struggles in the middle part of the season and the fans get their pitchforks out and form an angry mob that wants the team to trade for the best player available in the trade market post haste because the team isn’t good enough as constructed. According to fans, the answer to this year’s problems is the Oilers trading for Jakob Chychrun.

The team is definitely not perfect and their recent play is deserving of criticism. It would be nice to be able to add an impactful player before the trade deadline. The Oilers are in their championship window, so it makes sense to spend assets now to improve their odds of winning a Stanley cup now.

Capfriendly currently says that the Oilers’s projected cap hit (the total cap hit the Oilers would have if there were to be no more roster transactions from now until the end of the season) is $91,526,572. It also says that they have $2,400,000 in cap space now and that can be used at the deadline. 

However, we know there will be at least one more roster transaction this season, and it could happen within the next three to six weeks. Evander Kane will return after he has recovered from his injury. 

Once Kane returns, the Oilers will have -$2,659,739 in cap space because his cap hit will be removed from the LTIR pool. That means that the Oilers will have to shed at least $2,659,739 just to activate Kane from LTIR!

So let me get this straight, frustrated Oilers fan. You think that the team is going to add Chychrun at a $4.6 million cap hit when the team will need to shed $2,659,739 in cap space just to activate Kane from LTIR? Even in an optimistic scenario where the Arizona Coyotes would retain half of Chychrun’s cap hit, he still wouldn’t fit under the cap unless the Oilers were to move out even more money than the $2,659,739 needed to activate Kane.

Related: Warning: Roster Submitted on Monday Can Be Different on Opening Night

The Oilers will have two options to activate Kane. One is to run a 20 man active roster. The other option would be to trade money out. Jesse Puljujarvi has struggled this season, and it’s widely believed that he wants out. The other name to keep an eye on is Warren Foegele. Foegele has peculiarly been a healthy scratch the last two games. Both players provide size, speed, and physicality; but more consistent production is needed from both at their cap hits.

Remember, this is just to get Kane back on the active roster! I haven’t even talked about how to get Chychrun under the cap. They would need to shed $7,259,739 to get Kane and Chychrun on the roster. That would go down to $4,959,739 if the Coyotes were to retain half of Chychrun’s cap hit. They can send players down to Bakersfield or trade a player out to get Kane back on the roster. They would have to do both to get Chychrun, even with salary retention.

Let’s hypothetically say the trade involves Philip Broberg and a collection of picks and prospects. Trading Puljujarvi or Foegele alone wouldn’t be enough to get Chychrun under the cap unless there was salary retention on Chychrun. Tyson Barrie could get the job done, but that would create a whole new set of problems. Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse would have to run the powerplay. Both are capable, but not to Barrie’s level. Brett Kulak would have to play the right side. He’s capable, but he hasn’t done it for any length of time as an Oiler. 

Let’s assume that the Oilers send down Dylan Holloway, Mattias Janmark, and Markus Niemelainen to get Kane back on the roster rather than trading a player out. The cost for Chychrun would likely be Broberg and a collection of picks and prospects. Tack on the cost of Puljujarvi, Foegele, Barrie, or whoever they would need to get rid of to fit Chychrun under the cap.

After trading Puljujarvi and recalling Brad Malone to get the active roster back up to 20, they would have $861,667 available if the Coyotes were to retain half of Chychrun’s cap hit ($2.3 million). It’s not as if the situation changes if the name of the defenceman being acquired changes. Mattias Ekholm has a $6.25 million cap hit. Joel Edmundson has a $3.8 million cap hit. Vladislav Gavrikov has a $2.8 million cap hit. Gavrikov is the only one the Oilers could afford to add without any sort of salary retention after trading Puljujarvi or Foegele. 

My point in sharing all of these numbers is that the Oilers would have to give up a lot to add a defenceman right now, especially Chychrun. Adding Chychrun and getting rid of Broberg and Puljujarvi or Foegele would be robbing Peter to pay Paul. The defence would be better, but the forward group would be worse. Depth scoring is already an issue, and trading Puljujarvi or Foegele would make that worse. While losing either player wouldn’t kill the Oilers, that loss would reduce Chychrun’s potential impact in comparison to being able to add him without taking from the current roster. To be clear, I think that would still be an overall win for the roster today.

Chychrun is 6’2” and 210 lbs on most sites, but NHL.com has him at 220 lbs. Broberg is 6’3”, and he’s listed at 199-201 lbs, depending on the site. Pages from his draft year and this year all say the same thing; but during training camp, Broberg himself told the assembled media in Edmonton that he had gained ten pounds of muscle over the summer. That doesn’t seem to be recorded anywhere. He either weighs as much as Chychrun, or he’s about ten pounds lighter. They’re similar physically.

Broberg is at his best when he’s skating the puck out of his own zone and jumping into the rush. That sounds an awful lot like Chychrun. Broberg is not the in-zone defender that Chychrun is today, but Broberg has taken strides in that area and he will continue to improve.

Broberg and Chychrun are similar players, except that Chychrun is three years older than Broberg. Chychrun would give the Oilers a more immediate payoff, but being patient and waiting for Broberg to emerge has the potential to have the largest payoff because they don’t have to give anything up to get him and his prime will extend three years further down the road than Chychrun’s will. That means the Oilers’s championship window would be three years longer with Broberg than it would be with Chychrun. 

If I was worried about Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl bolting out of town because they don’t think they can win here, then I would want to do things to extend the team’s championship window. That isn’t making a panic move that would shorten the championship window to potentially win right now.

Trading for Chychrun would be more than just adding a player. It would be roster renovation. The Oilers don’t appear to have any interest in adding Chychrun right now, and I think that’s wise. Elliotte Friedman seems to think that the Oilers want to give Broberg more of a test run before making any kind of move, which is for the best.

The Oilers will be in a better position to add at the deadline next season. Oscar Klefbom and Mike Smith will be off the books, and the team won’t need to operate in LTIR. The retained salary for Milan Lucic will be gone. The buyout penalty for Andrej Sekera will be gone as well. That’s $8,617,000 in free cap space for next season. Until then, the status quo is the most likely scenario.