February 27, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Erik Karlsson said that he has not been approached about waiving his no-trade clause and that he doesn’t expect that to happen before Friday’s trade deadline. That means that the Edmonton Oilers aren’t likely to get Karlsson this week. Darren Dreger reported that the Oilers are interested in Nashville Predators defenceman Mattias Ekholm on Monday. The Predators appear to be set on a reset if not a rebuild after the announcement that long time GM David Poile will be retiring after this season, and trading Ekholm would fit that plan. Ekholm is a great plan B for the Oilers, and it would be a MUCH less complicated deal to execute than getting Karlsson.

Related: The Complications of a Karlsson Trade to the Oilers

Ekholm is a well rounded second pairing defender. The offensive side of his game has fallen this year, and so has his ice time, but Ekholm still does many things well. Look at this Tweet from @ NHL_Sid:

Ekholm is 32, and has a $6.25M cap-hit for his next 4 years, but he remains very, very good. Excellent defensive results, strong at retrievals and in transition.

I think this team needs a RD more than a LD, but depending on the price, I'd be quite happy with him. https://t.co/CiiZAZDjY0 pic.twitter.com/hbrzcJhGDe

— Sid (@NHL_Sid) February 27, 2023

He excels at defensive zone retrievals and entry transition. He ranks quite highly at breakout passing as well. That tells me that the puck moves in the right direction quite often while Ekholm is on the ice. Ekholm ranks in the 88th percentile in even strength defence, which would be a welcome addition to the Oilers. The only thing he doesn’t do well is being physical.

Ekholm represents a clear upgrade over Brett Kulak on the second pairing. Bringing in Ekholm would push Kulak down to the third pairing, and it would push Philip Broberg down to the seventh defence spot… unless Kulak ends up being involved in the trade. CapFriendly lists Ekholm as being able to play both sides of the ice, so he could potentially be an upgrade over Cody Ceci on the first pairing as well. 

My concern with Ekholm would be his blocking Broberg’s ascension up the depth chart over the next couple of seasons. Ekholm is the better player today, but that won’t be the case by the end of his contract. If salary is retained on Ekholm, then the inevitable decline in the latter years of his contract won’t be a big issue. If not, then he could be an expensive third pairing defenceman in the coming years. The other concern would be potentially losing Broberg in the Ekholm trade. I don’t think Ken Holland is open to moving Broberg, so Nashville would likely have to deal with it.

Ekholm has a cap hit of $6.25 million through the 2025-26 season. The best news for the Oilers is that Ekholm has no trade protection of any kind. That’s great, but they would still need to fit him under the cap somehow. Nashville has a ton of cap space after trading Nino Niederreiter and Tanner Jeannot over the weekend, so they’re in a position where they could help the Oilers figure a trade out here.

The Oilers currently have a 20 man active roster, and they would have to give Nashville multiple contracts to make the money work, even with 50% retention. The Oilers would be wise to use this deal to create some cap space for themselves by giving Nashville more of a cap hit than they take back with Ekholm.

I’m operating under the assumption that Holland wouldn’t move anyone with a cap hit over $5 million. They wouldn’t be getting a powerplay specialist back, so I don’t think Tyson Barrie would be involved in this deal. Ceci and Kailer Yamamoto are the next two highest cap hits under $5 million. Their cap hits add up to $6.35 million. It would only make sense to move Ceci if Ekholm plays the right side beside Darnell Nurse on the top pairing. Bob Stauffer said that the Predators liked Yamamoto in his draft year, so there’s a chance that they might be interested in Yamamoto. Ceci and Yamamoto would be enough to make the money work without any retention, but they wouldn’t be able to add anyone to increase the number of players on their active roster, so I would think they would still push for some salary retention on Ekholm.

Related: Oilers Trade Deadline Options

Here are the players that the Oilers could use in an Ekholm deal:

Cody Ceci

Kailer Yamamoto

Jesse Puljujarvi

Warren Foegele

Brett Kulak

It would take two of those players plus some salary retention on Ekholm. I believe that it’s more likely that one of Kulak or Ceci would be involved in this deal, but that wouldn’t necessarily have to be the case.

Here’s what I think the deal would be if it were to happen:

Edmonton receives: Mattias Ekholm

Nashville receives: Brett Kulak, Kailer Yamamoto, Markus Niemelainen, 2023 1st round pick, 2024 3rd round pick

Nashville retains 33% of Ekholm’s salary.

If the Oilers wanted to pay more draft capital to Nashville for 50% retention and then add a third team to retain another 50% of Ekholm’s salary, then they could do that as well. That would give them cap space to add up front as well.

It seems like a lot, but we’re talking about three and a quarter years of salary retention, not just the rest of this season. Nashville would likely want a prospect in return, which is why Niemelainen is included as well. I would do this deal in a heartbeat as long as Broberg is not headed the other way.