February 28, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

It appears as though coming up just short against the league’s best team last night lit a fire under Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s behind to get something done. It’s been a busy day for the Oilers. First, they traded Jesse Puljujarvi. Then they acquired Mattias Ekholm a few hours later. Oilers fans got their “win now” trade. Now, let’s see where Ekholm will fit with the Oilers.

Ekholm is the shut down second pairing left-handed defenceman that the Oilers have needed ever since Oscar Klefbom left the team. The 32-year old is a well rounded defender that shines in pretty much every category except hitting and powerplay prowess, as noted by @NHL_Sid:

I was in the middle of a crowded bus when this deal happened, so here's some more detailed thoughts.

Ekholm is a fantastic two-way defenceman. He can retrieve pucks at high volume, move the puck in transition, and defend the transition. Very well-rounded two-way defenceman. https://t.co/MjK6rGNBiJ pic.twitter.com/cIjZSzLmSw

— Sid (@NHL_Sid) February 28, 2023

Ekholm has 18 points in 57 games for Nashville this season. More importantly, his scoring chances for percentage is 53.60% and his high danger chances for percentage is 53.57% according to Natural Stat Trick. Ekholm brings 75 games worth of playoff experience, including a run to the 2017 Stanley Cup final. He has three years left on his contract after this one. The Predators are retaining 4% of Ekholm’s cap hit, which means he will carry a $6 million cap hit for the Oilers. 

Tyson Barrie was a part of the package going to Nashville in this trade. Barrie has had a stellar season in Edmonton. He’s quarterbacked the powerplay and been reliable on the second pairing with Brett Kulak. Barrie ranks 12th in scoring by defencemen with 43 points in 61 games this season. He tops the list in powerplay points by defencemen with 28. Ekholm is certainly not an upgrade over Barrie on the powerplay. Holland robbed Peter to pay Paul with this deal.

Barrie’s involvement in this trade had nothing to do with him being terrible at defence. He sits above 50% in any meaningful underlying statistical category this season. Barrie was a luxury whose money needed to be spent elsewhere to improve the team in the long run. Evan Bouchard made the fit awkward for Barrie in Edmonton long term. Bouchard has been being groomed for this eventuality. The 2018 tenth overall pick has been sharing powerplay time with Barrie all season. Barrie has 194:12 on the powerplay this season, and Bouchard has 107:33. Barrie moves the puck faster than Bouchard does on the powerplay, and Barrie is great at keeping the puck in at the blueline on the powerplay; but Bouchard is capable of distributing the puck and using his heavy shot on the powerplay. Darnell Nurse can also carry some of the load on the powerplay. The powerplay got worse today; but it’s Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan-Nugent Hopkins that make that unit hum. The benefit of adding Ekholm’s defensive ability outweighs the loss of Barrie’s powerplay skills.

The defence pairings will get a shakeup after this trade. The second pairing for the Oilers has been Barrie with Brett Kulak, but that won’t be the case anymore. Ekholm is a natural fit as the second pairing left defenceman over Kulak and behind Nurse. Ekholm seems like a fantastic partner for Bouchard on paper. Playing the best defensive defenceman on the team with the most offensively orientated defenceman on the team makes all the sense in the world. Ekholm would be a steadying influence on Bouchard, much like Duncan Keith was last season.

The problem with playing Ekholm with Bouchard is that it leaves the top pairing together. Cody Ceci is playing above his head on the top pairing. The Nurse-Ceci pairing was asked to shoulder a heavy load last season, and they performed quite well. That hasn’t been the case this season. They haven’t been good together, and they’re dragging Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl down with them.

They could play Ceci with Ekholm on the second pairing. That would push Bouchard up to the top pairing with Nurse. They put up spectacular shot metrics when paired together, and I would love to see more of Bouchard with the big guns. Hopefully the old adage that the best defence is a good offence would hold true for them. That scenario would also see Kulak and Philip Broberg together on the third pairing. One of them would have to play their off-side, but both are capable of doing that.

Related: Oilers bolster blueline by acquiring Mattias Ekholm

Ekholm can also play on his off-side. He played on the right side for Nashville in their first ten games this season after they acquired Ryan McDonagh. He had also played there on a few other occasions, and he said that it’s not a big deal to play his off-side during today’s media availability. That means that there’s a chance that he could end up on the top pairing with Nurse.

That would mean that Ceci would play with Broberg or Kulak. Ceci has had some shifts with Broberg in recent games. The results this season have been underwhelming in a small sample size, but that could be an option. Last season, their goal metrics and high danger scoring chance metrics were low; but their shot metrics were promising. Broberg retrieves pucks well, and Ceci breaks out of his own zone well. That pairing could work.

Ceci and Kulak only played 53:49 with each other last season, but their shot and scoring chance metrics were promising despite their goal share being lousy. It was a small sample size though, so who knows. Check out this piece from @NHL_Sid from training camp where he wrote about ideal defence pairings for the Oilers. Ceci struggles with rush defence and zone entry denials, and Kulak is strong in those areas. Ceci is better at breakouts and in-zone defending. It could be a sneaky good shut down pairing. That would leave the blossoming Bouchard – Broberg pairing intact.

There are pros and cons to each arrangement. Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson will have time to figure it out and experiment before the playoffs start, especially if they continue to play with seven defencemen.

I’m happy that Holland was able to execute this trade without giving up Broberg. I totally understood needing an upgrade in the top four this season, but I see big potential in Broberg. As much as I don’t like adding years 32-36 of a player, I feel that it was acceptable here because the Oilers are in “win now” mode and it means that Broberg won’t be blocked from moving up the depth chart over the course of the next decade, such as could’ve been the case with Jakob Chychrun. Broberg will pass Ekholm on the depth chart before his contract expires. Ekholm being an expensive third pairing defenceman won’t be an issue for a long period of time.

It’s nice to see that the 2023 first round pick went towards an impactful player with term rather than a rental player. Reid Schaeffer was an encouraging prospect, but the reality is that players selected that late in the first round rarely amount to much, as so many fans clamouring for Erik Karlsson have pointed out in recent weeks. I feel his ceiling was the third line, and he was stuck behind a log jam of big names on the left side of the depth chart.

The Ekholm contract ends at the same time as McDavid’s contract, which seems to be a trend among many recent Oilers additions. I hope fans that keep shouting phrases like “all in” and “win now” are happy with this trade. Holland continues to go “all in” on this season with the Evander Kane and Kulak extensions, the Jack Campbell signing, and now the Ekholm trade. This is definitely a “win now” trade, but it’s also a “win in the three seasons after this one” trade. I would call that a win for Holland.