June 26, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

I was pretty certain that Philip Broberg would develop into a top four defenceman on the Edmonton Oilers by the end of this past season. He’s a year younger than Bouchard, who had made that jump in the 2021-22 season. Broberg skates beautifully and moves the puck well. The man standing in his way was Brett Kulak, an effective defender that could play second pairing on many teams, but is better suited as a third pairing left defenceman on a championship team. 

Alas, that’s not how it turned out for young Broberg. He battled an injury throughout training camp, which led to a less than spectacular camp. He injured himself in the kitchen with a knife in a cooking accident early in the season and missed some time. Broberg made his season debut for the Oilers on November 26, 2022 against the New York Rangers, the first of 46 games he played last season. He got eight points in those 46 games while averaging a modest 12:36 of ice time per game. The young Swede was used as a seventh defenceman in most of those games.

The situation on the Oilers blue line has changed since last fall. The team acquired Mattias Ekholm at the trade deadline, and he was fantastic down the stretch and into the playoffs. He and Darnell Nurse are the undisputed top two left defencemen on the team. Ekholm has three more years left on his deal, and Nurse is entering the second year of his eight-year contract. 

Meanwhile, the Oilers have 22-year old Philip Broberg, a top ten pick with top four potential whose path to a top four spot has now been blocked. Acquiring Ekholm was absolutely the right move, but a consequence of that is now having a budding player buried on the depth chart. They could just maintain the status quo and let Broberg continue to get minimal ice time at the NHL level, but there are a couple of other options too.

Ken Holland likes to let his prospects over ripen before thrusting them into important roles. Broberg absolutely needs to earn his spot higher in the lineup. However, he’s not going to develop much playing as the seventh defenceman. They could let him play in Bakersfield this season and call him up if need be. He’s the only defenceman that’s close to NHL ready that’s waivers exempt. The Oilers could use Markus Niemelainen as the seventh defenceman this season since he’s not waivers exempt. He’s 25 years old. We essentially know what he is at this point. His expected ceiling is much lower than Broberg’s, so it makes more sense to give the ice time in Bakersfield to Broberg.

Another option would be to create an opening for Broberg on the third pairing. That would entail getting Kulak out of that spot. I see two ways to accomplish that. One would be to trade him for cap space. The other would be to trade Cody Ceci for cap space and move Kulak over to his off side. He can play his off side well, but the question would be whether he can do it successfully on a second pairing. Cap space and a top six spot for Broberg would be the advantages of this approach; but the down side would be an extremely young and inexperienced third pairing of Broberg and Vincent Desharnais. I love both players, but relying on two inexperienced players to play together isn’t necessarily wise.

The other option would be to explore the trade market for Broberg. The Oilers are in “win now” mode, so trading a top prospect for a pick doesn’t make much sense. He could be used as a part of a package to get a player that could help the Oilers win now. Perhaps he, Kailer Yamamoto, and a pick (a total cap hit of $3,963,333) could be traded for a top six right winger such as Blake Wheeler (50% retained). 

If the Oilers really want to change the look of their defence, then they could consider trading Broberg with Cody Ceci (a total cap hit of $4,113,333) for an upgrade on Ceci to play with Nurse. Darren Dreger reported that the Oilers are interested in Brett Pesce from the Carolina Hurricanes. He would be a fantastic fit, but it seems unlikely that Carolina would want to move him. Then again, I thought the same thing about Ekholm. There admittedly aren’t many other intriguing options out there, but Nick Jensen from the Washington Capitals could make some sense.

Perhaps a change of scenery deal involving a player in a situation similar to Broberg’s could work as well. Ken Holland traded Dmirtri Samorukov, a defenceman that was buried on the Oilers’ depth chart, for Klim Kostin last season. Look how well that worked out. There’s no guarantee that the incoming player would turn out to be as good as Kostin has been, but there’s a strong chance of getting a value contract that could contribute meaningfully now and down the road.

I’ve got my eye on one player in particular: Alexander Holtz of the New Jersey Devils. Perhaps another one-for-one deal between the Oilers and the Devils involving a defenceman and a winger could work here. Holtz was taken seventh overall in the 2020 NHL draft, and Broberg was taken eighth overall the year before. Holtz was touted as an elite scoring winger in his draft year, and he’s a right shot. The Devils have a crowded group in their top six. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier lead the way at centre. Jesper Bratt has become one of the most underrated players in the league over the last couple of seasons. Ondrej Palat was brought in last year for his championship experience and his well-rounded game. They also acquired Timo Meier from the Sharks at the trade deadline. Lastly, they found a gem in Dawson Mercer. It’s a young group that got the Devils to the second round of the playoffs. There might not be room for Holtz on a scoring line for the Devils long-term.

Meanwhile, the left side of their defence is lacking right now. They appear to be losing Ryan Graves to free agency. Jonas Siegenthaler is their top left defenceman right now. I’m not sure where Luke Hughes will fit in, but he played for them in the playoffs and did some exciting things. Then they have 34 year old Brendan Smith and 22 year old Kevin Bahl.

The Devils might not want to have Hughes and another young defenceman like Broberg on the left side this season; but Broberg has shown an ability to defend effectively at the NHL level. He’s also got more upside than Bahl. Smith isn’t exactly a world beater. Broberg could play his way onto that roster.

Related: Positional Asymmetry on the Oilers: Part 2 – The Defence

A trade involving Broberg and Holtz could be a win for both teams. It would create a little bit of a log jam at right wing in the prospect pipeline. Raphael Lavoie is going to challenge for a spot in camp, and Xavier Bourgault isn’t too far away. However, Holtz has out produced both at the AHL level, has more potential than either one, and has played NHL games already. 

My gut tells me that they will just maintain the status quo with Broberg. They have time to let this situation develop, and perhaps a more clear solution will emerge within the next couple of seasons. They will have to deal with the Broberg situation eventually though.