July 25, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Edmonton Oilers goalie coach Dustin Schwartz receives plenty of criticism. Consistently solid goaltending has been on the team’s wish list for many years, yet Schwartz has held his position for nine years. He has survived three general managers. Many fans joke that he could survive a nuclear apocalypse. 

My goal in writing this piece is to determine if the criticism towards Schwartz is justified. I don’t profess to be a goalie expert, nor can I speak to Schwartz’s coaching tactics or his goaltending philosophies. All I can work with is available statistical data and observable trends.

The job of a goalie coach first and foremost is to coach the goalies within the organization. Schwartz inherited a woeful group of goalies that included Ben Scrivens, Viktor Fasth, Richard Bachmann, Tyler Bunz, and Laurent Brossoit when he joined the team in November 2014. I’m not going to be too harsh about that season since Schwartz joined the team midseason and it was a terrible team all around. I’m not going to analyze his work with every single goalie he’s had in the organization. I’ll focus on the ones that have actually played meaningful minutes in Schwartz’s tenure.

Cam Talbot:

2014-15 (NYR) – 2.21 GAA, .926 SV% (36 GP)

2015-16 (EDM) – 2.55 GAA, .917 SV% (56 GP)

2016-17 – 2.39 GAA, .919 SV% (73 GP)

2017-18 – 3.02 GAA, .908 SV% (67 GP)

2018-19 – 3.36 GAA, .893 SV% (31 GP)

The Oilers took advantage of the New York Rangers by acquiring Talbot, an emerging goalie that was stuck behind Rangers legend Henrik Lundqvist, at the 2015 NHL Draft. Talbot’s numbers were sparkling in a backup role in 2014-15. His numbers dipped slightly in his first season as an Oiler and under Schwartz’s tutelage, but that was also his first season as a number one goalie in the NHL.

Talbot’s best season came in his second year under Schwartz. That was the year that he surpassed Grant Fuhr’s franchise record for wins in a season and set the new mark at 42. Talbot also started the second most games in franchise history (73) to Fuhr’s 75. He led the Oilers to game seven of the second round that spring. 

The decline for Talbot was sharp. His GAA jumped from 2.31 in 2016-17 to 3.02 in 2017-18, and then to 3.36 in 2018-19. Talbot got into a nasty habit of allowing goals early in games, often within the first two minutes. He started letting in softies consistently. Talbot ended up being traded prior to the deadline in part because the team had decided to extend Mikko Koskinen (more on that shortly), and they needed to dump salary to activate Andrej Sekera from the LTIR. 

Mikko Koskinen:

2017-18 (SKA St. Petersburg) – 1.57 GAA, .937 SV%

2018-19 – 2.93 GAA, .906 SV% (55 GP)

2019-20 – 2.75 GAA, .917 SV% (38 GP)

2020-21 – 3.17 GAA, .899 SV% (26 GP)

2021-22 – 3.10 GAA, .903 SV% (45 GP)

Koskinen came to the Oilers from the KHL, where he produced spectacular numbers on a loaded team. The 6’7” Finnish goalie stole the net from Talbot in his first season in Oilers silks, despite his numbers being mediocre at best. Koskinen’s work earned him a four year contract extension, which was signed in January 2019. The Koskinen contract extension was an odd piece of business. It was Peter Chiarelli’s final move as general manager of the Oilers, and it came shortly before his dismissal. It didn’t need to be addressed until the off-season. Anyway, I digress.

Like Talbot, Koskinen’s best season as an Oiler was his second season under Schwartz. He and Mike Smith basically split the net and had almost identical numbers. Many Oilers supporters felt that Koskinen merited getting the start in the 2020 playoff bubble, but the start was given to Smith instead.

Also like Talbot, Koskinen’s performance dipped in year three. Koskinen also developed a penchant for allowing goals early in games. Koskinen’s leaky glove hand was a hot topic of conversation in Oil Country. My personal observation on Koskinen was that he got beat cleanly on a lot of open looks for a 6’7” goaltender. The leaky glove hand and the loose play on many of those open looks where he got beat cleanly are issues that I would expect a goalie coach to be able to improve over time with a player. That wasn’t the case with Schwartz and Koskinen.

Mike Smith:

2018-19 (CGY) – 2.72 GAA, .898 SV% (42 GP)

2019-20 – 2.95 GAA, .902 SV% (39 GP)

2020-21 – 2.31 GAA, .923 SV% (32 GP)

2021-22 – 2.81 GAA, .915 SV% (28 GP)

The Oilers signed Smith as a free agent in the summer of 2019 after a poor season in Calgary. He put up respectable numbers while sharing the net with Koskinen in 2018-19. Like Koskinen and Talbot before him, Smith had his best year as an Oiler in his second season under Schwartz. Smith’s 2.31 GAA and .923 save percentage both topped Talbot’s numbers in his record setting 2016-17 season, albeit in less than half the amount of games.

All three of the goaltenders that have played meaningful minutes in Schwartz’s tenure have all peaked in their second seasons with the team. That’s evidence that Schwartz’s methods provide results when given two seasons of time.

The big problem for Schwartz is how his goalies have all crumbled irrecoverably in their third seasons with the team. The fact that a goalie hasn’t been able to back up a great season with another great season is a problem. The Oilers can’t keep playing musical chairs with their goalies and expect to have sustained success over the course of the remainder of the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era, however long that may last.

Related: McLeod’s Arbitration Case

The burning question is what does this mean for the current Oilers goaltenders for the 2023-24 season? Jack Campbell is entering his second full season under Schwartz. If history tells us anything, it’s that Campbell is about to have his best year as an Oiler.

Stuart Skinner is unique among Oilers goaltenders. He’s a rare Oilers goaltender that has been drafted and developed by the team. Skinner was drafted in 2017. He worked with Bakersfield Condors goaltending coach Sylvain Rodrigue from his first professional season in 2018-19 until this past season where he was with the big club full time. 

Last season was Skinner’s first full season working with Schwartz. Once again, history suggests that this coming season will be Skinner’s best as an Oiler. It would be crazy for both goalies in the tandem to have their best seasons with the Oilers in the same season. Given Skinner’s age and potential long future with the Oilers, I certainly hope 2023-24 isn’t Skinner’s best year as an Oiler.

Schwartz is clearly doing something right for him to have been around as long as he has. I believe that the success of Campbell and Skinner in the next couple of seasons will play a large role in how long Schwartz will continue to have job security. If Campbell has a resurgence and Skinner continues to improve, then Schwartz will be safe. If the tandem struggles and continues to be a focal point after another disappointing ending or two for the team, then it might be a different story for Schwartz. In the meantime, he will just continue to be a scapegoat in the eyes of many fans.