September 26, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard have been paired together for the entirety of Edmonton Oilers training camp thus far. Bouchard was paired with Mattias Ekholm late last season, and his performance took off down the stretch and through the playoffs. Ekholm has been nursing a hip flexor injury, which has resulted in different defensive pairings to start camp. When Ryan Rishaug asked head coach Jay Woodcroft if there’s a curiosity to see what Nurse and Bouchard could do together because of their potential to be a “pretty significant minute munching type pair”, Woodcroft simply smiled and said “fair. Fair to say.” Nurse and Bouchard could be together for a while.

Woodcroft: 'Fair to say' Bouchard, Nurse pairing will be considered https://t.co/C4bg38w4aL

— Ryan Rishaug (@TSNRyanRishaug) September 25, 2023

Woodcroft also said that Bouchard is a “very physically fit individual.” He said that Bouchard “spent a lot of time this summer having the requisite or working towards having the requisite strength to handle big minutes. He’s somebody that’s now in the life stage of his career where he’s passed the rookie lessons that you know, over the last few years, he’s been able to learn at the National Hockey League level. He’s played I think 28 playoff games at the most intense time of year and played well in them. We think he’s ready for a jump in minutes.”

Nurse said that Bouchard is “… in great shape. He’s very smart. He’s a very cerebral player out there. Finds himself in the right spots. He’s able to use his energy when he has to, and a lot of times when you’re in the right spot, you don’t have to waste energy; so he’s one of those players that are able to do that. It’s a lot of fun to play with [him].”

These are the underlying metrics for the Nurse – Bouchard pairing in the last two seasons, the first two full seasons of Bouchard’s career:

	CF%	xGF%	GF%
2021-22 (524:55)	57.71%	57.27%	52.5% (17-23)
2022-23 (139:21)	61.36%	63.14%	57.14 (8-6)

There’s a common narrative that Nurse and Bouchard would be a terrible pairing because they’re both prone to defensive mistakes. Every defenceman makes mistakes. Nurse plays upwards of 25 minutes per night against the other team’s best players, of course he’s going to make mistakes. Bouchard is still young, so he will make mistakes too. 

A lot of people will look at their 17-23 goal share from 2021-22 and have recurring nightmares, but goal share is a little bit voodoo, like touchdowns in fantasy football. Their expected goals rate and shot shares have been fantastic together. Those are stronger indicators of how well a pairing has played together than actual goals. Actual goals matter on the scoresheet, but there are other factors at play such as mistakes from forwards, goaltending errors, and bounces. They righted the goal share issue last season, albeit in far fewer minutes together.

Their skill sets complement each other nicely too. Look at this Tweet from @NHLSid. He compares their playing styles nicely here:

Nurse's greatest flaws are his breakout passing and rush defence, and Bouchard is Edmonton's best breakout passer and entry defender.

In that aspect, they fit quite well (much better than Nurse/Ceci did), but the main issue is that pair could be weak at defending in-zone. https://t.co/5AuFnnLLfV pic.twitter.com/CvOvIvq0Uc

— Sid (@NHL_Sid) September 25, 2023

Nurse struggles with rush defence and breakout passing. Bouchard shines in those areas. According to @NHLSid, Nurse (59.4%) is better at dump-in retrievals than Bouchard (52%), which is fine because Bouchard is better at defending the blue line. Bouchard isn’t as strong of an in-zone defender as Nurse is, but Bouchard is steadily improving in that regard. 

Even if you think that this pairing would be a nightmare in its own zone, it has all the makings of a pairing that can easily outscore its mistakes. Nurse and Bouchard would spend the majority of their time in the offensive zone, as their shot shares and expected goal shares would suggest. Bouchard is an amazing passer, and Nurse is great at skating the puck up the ice. Bouchard can be an escape valve for Nurse, and Nurse can be an option for Bouchard if the forwards up the ice aren’t open. They complement each other nicely there too. 

Bouchard was mostly deployed on the third pairing until later in the season last year. Look at the difference in the amount of time Nurse’s partner, Cody Ceci, got with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl compared to how much time Bouchard got with them (via Natural Stat Trick):

Ceci and McDavid – 487:25

Ceci and Draisaitl – 454:16

Bouchard and McDavid – 452:58

Bouchard and Draisaitl – 377:31

Ceci got more time with McDavid and Draisaitl than Bouchard did last year. Despite that, Bouchard finished 42nd among defencemen with 26 even strength points, and 45th with 1.212 even strength points per 60 minutes. Bouchard’s performance in both metrics would certainly increase with more time with McDavid and Draisaitl. I’ll mention that Bouchard’s production at even strength actually went down in his sophomore season. Last season was something of a down season for him offensively.

If I was Woodcroft, my strategy would be to put the best puck moving defencemen on the team with McDavid and Draisaitl as often as possible. Nurse is the best transporter of the puck, and Bouchard is the best passer. I would also want my two highest scoring defencemen out there with my superstars. Those are Nurse and Bouchard. Nurse has only finished outside of the top 20 in even strength scoring by defencemen once since 2018-19. As noted, 25 even strength points (42nd among defencemen) was low for Bouchard. He actually finished fifteenth among defencemen with 35 even strength points as a rookie in 2021-22. Imagine what he could do if he led Oilers defencemen in ice time with McDavid and Draisaitl.

Ekholm and Bouchard were tremendous as a pairing last season, and the popular narrative is that Ekholm elevated Bouchard’s play. The belief is that Ekholm stabilized Bouchard. I don’t see it that way, and neither does Ekholm. “It wasn’t like I did anything to him or told him to change something. It was more like ‘hey, just relax. You know you’re an offensive defenceman… you can’t really worry too much about the mistakes defensively, you just have to make sure you make up for it offensively’; and after that, he kind of just thrived and played really well” said Ekholm when asked about his mentorship of Bouchard last year.

Bouchard’s underlying metrics were great throughout last season, and his goal share had been climbing in the right direction since Christmas in 2022. His goal share surged once Ekholm arrived, and the puck started going in for him too. All of that just hid the fact that his underlying metrics were solid all year long, aside from the early goal share struggles.

Related: Put Some Respect on Bouchard’s Name

The biggest reason to utilize the Nurse – Bouchard pairing would be to split up the Nurse – Ceci pairing. That pairing got torched in the series against the Vegas Golden Knights, and their goal share at even strength in the regular season was 48.94%. That isn’t terrible, but the results need to be better for a pairing that spent as much time with McDavid and Draisaitl as Nurse and Ceci did last season. The team could hope for a resurgence from Ceci, but top pairing minutes were always a big ask for Ceci. The fit stylistically isn’t there with Nurse either. The better strategy would be to pair Nurse with Bouchard instead of Ceci.

Related: Positional Asymmetry on the Oilers: Part 2 – The Defence

The presence of Ekholm will allow Woodcroft to try different configurations as the season goes on, but I feel that having Nurse and Bouchard together will be a successful strategy. We may never know if this was Woodcroft’s plan all along, or if Nurse and Bouchard are together because of Ekholm’s injury, but as Rishaug suggested, we might be seeing the duo together for a while. The organization’s top left defenceman and its top right defenceman should be playing together, and it’s a nice bonus that their playing styles complement each other well.