October 7, 2023 by Ryan Lotsberg

The NHL’s deadline for teams to submit their opening night rosters is on Monday at 3 pm ET. Players need to pass through waivers before being sent down to their AHL teams, thus making Sunday the deadline for putting players on waivers prior to the start of the season. That means the Edmonton Oilers have a couple of decisions to make on Sunday, the most intriguing of which is the twelfth forward battle.

There are three forwards being considered for one roster spot. Those forwards are Adam Erne, Raphael Lavoie, and Lane Pederson. I’m going to lay out arguments for and against each player earning that roster spot. My arguments will be partly based on numbers from training camp including points, shots, hits, blocks, goals for percentage, expected goals percentage, Corsi for percentage, and high danger scoring chances for percentage. I’ll also consider other factors that might play into the decision as well as using my subjective observations about each player in my analysis.

Adam Erne:

	Points	Shots	Hits	Blocks	GF%	xGF%	CF%	HDCF%
Erne	1	1	11	4	20% (1-4)	32.89%	42.98% (49-65)	36.84% (7-12)

Erne was invited to camp on a PTO, so he needed to earn a contract in camp. He needed to have an excellent showing in camp to earn a contract and a roster spot on a 21-man roster.

Argument for Erne: The biggest argument for Erne is 355 NHL games. He had 160 hits in 61 games last year, which would have led the Oilers. His hit and point totals were similar to Klim Kostin’s last season, and we saw how useful Kostin was for the Oilers. Erne is also the only one of the three forwards in this battle that kills penalties.

He Erne-d it 😏 pic.twitter.com/RvLxwYxbSn

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) October 1, 2023

Argument Against Erne: His five-on-five metrics were dreadful. While he converted his only shot on goal in camp, he only had one shot on goal in six games. He also wasn’t hitting often enough to make an impression. Erne collected seven hits in his last two preseason games, but he ultimately only finished with eleven hits, which isn’t even the most in this group of three players. It was too little, too late from Erne.

Raphael Lavoie:

	Points	Shots	Hits	Blocks	GF%	xGF%	CF%	HDCF%
Lavoie	2	15	9	4	75% (3-1)	47.89%	48.76% (59-62)	46.15% (6-7)

The 2019 second round pick of the Edmonton Oilers is no longer exempt from waivers, so the team would risk losing Lavoie for nothing should they try to send him to the AHL this season. The organization has four seasons and a second round pick invested into this player, but he still needs to earn his way onto the roster.

Argument for Lavoie: His shot total jumps off the page. Extrapolated over an 82-game season, his 2.5 shots per game would have placed him in a tie for 80th in the NHL with Andrei Svechnikov and Pierre-Luc Dubois last season. This is a small sample size from preseason action, but it’s clear that Lavoie has a shooter’s mentality. That’s fantastic because his shot is a weapon, as we saw on his tremendous goal that he scored on Thatcher Demko. 

Raph rocket 🚀 pic.twitter.com/Cx3qe9R6EQ

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) October 1, 2023

It was one the two goals that Lavoie scored this preseason. Neither Erne nor Pederson scored more than one. Lavoie’s 13.33% shooting percentage is above the typical league average. Having a right-handed finisher in the bottom six would be a big win for the Oilers, a team that has struggled to get offensive contributions from the bottom of their lineup for many years.

My eye saw a player that put pressure on puck carriers with his quick closing speed and long reach. I never saw Lavoie get lost in defensive coverage. He ended up on the right side of the goal share in his six games.

Argument Against Lavoie: He’s the youngest and least experienced of these three forwards. The Oilers are in “win now” mode, and choosing a rookie for the final roster spot would not align with that mentality. 

Lavoie needs to use his big 6’4” frame more. It would have been nice to see more than just nine hits in six games from him. He doesn’t kill penalties, and he saw limited powerplay time during the preseason. Lavoie’s five-on-five goal share was great; but his other five-on-five metrics were below 50%, which suggests that Lavoie isn’t likely to continue to win the goal share battle. They weren’t concerningly bad, but below 50% is not ideal.

Lane Pederson:

	Points	Shots	Hits	Blocks	GF%	xGF%	CF%	HDCF%
Pederson	2	11	12	3	50% (1-1)	56.06%	52% (65-60)	61.11% (11-7)

Pederson signed a two-year deal with the Oilers this summer. He’s played in 71 NHL games, but the 26-year old hasn’t been able to stick on an NHL roster yet. Pederson is trying to show that he’s more than an AHL-NHL tweener.

Argument for Pederson: He’s a right-handed centre with decent size at 6’ and 190 lbs, which is something the organization values. Pederson isn’t known as a physical player, but he led this trio in hits with twelve in six games. He contributed eleven shots, but five of those came in the first game of the preseason against the Winnipeg Jets.

Pederson’s five-on-five metrics were solid. Any time a player is over 60% in one of these stats, it’s fantastic. Pederson’s HDCF% of 61.11% was impressive. He allowed just as many high danger scoring chances as Lavoie did, but he was on the ice for five more of those high quality chances than Lavoie was out for. Pederson’s expected goals for percentage of 56.06% is impressive as well. He did just about everything that a team could want out of a fourth line centre.

I thought that Pederson looked quite comfortable with the puck on his stick. He made a nice breakaway pass to Dylan Holloway against the Calgary Flames, and he scored a nice breakaway goal in that game as well. 

Found an open Lane 👀 pic.twitter.com/S9yFvH4PzO

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) October 5, 2023

Argument against Pederson: Pederson won 40% or less of his faceoffs in three of his six games. He was exactly 50% in another game, so he was 50% or worse in four of his six games. I won’t ignore the first game where he won 83% of his draws, but his faceoff performance nosedived drastically in the second half of the camp.

Pederson played 4:52 less at five-on-five during camp than Lavoie did, but he made up that difference in ice time with 4:28 more than Lavoie on the powerplay. Pederson was skating in Ryan McLeod’s spot throughout the majority of camp, and he was getting powerplay minutes that otherwise might have gone to McLeod.

Pederson hasn’t played more than 51 professional hockey games in a season since 2018-19. I’m not sure if that’s related to injuries or not, but Pederson hasn’t played in many games in the last four seasons. Meanwhile, Erne and Lavoie both played in 61 games each for their respective teams last season.

Related: Two Players Nose Ahead at Oilers Camp

There’s a reasonable argument to be made for all three of these forwards. I expect both Lavoie and Pederson to get NHL games this season. My hope is that Lavoie’s come with the Edmonton Oilers.