October 11, 2023 by Josh DeRose

120 days after the Stanley Cup was presented to the Vegas Golden Knights, a new NHL season is upon us. In my first post for the Heavy Hockey Network, I looked at which teams are playoff bound and which are in for a long winter. Here are my predictions for the 2023-24 NHL standings:

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Maple Leafs – 113
2. Buffalo Sabres – 105
3. Boston Bruins – 98
4. Tampa Bay Lightning – 97
5. Florida Panthers – 94
6. Ottawa Senators – 85
7. Detroit Red Wings – 76
8. Montreal Canadiens – 64

Though the Atlantic might be in the process of relinquishing its crown as the league’s premiere division, it’s still a force to be reckoned with. It should come as no surprise that the Toronto Maple Leafs are the odds-on favourite to finish first in the Atlantic, if not the Eastern Conference. The Leafs already lethal forward group has been augmented by two key UFA signings.

Max Domi enters the fray as the Leafs’ heir apparent fan favourite. Familial legacy aside, he fits their roster like a glove. Tyler Bertuzzi compounds Domi’s arrival, filling the team’s longstanding void of top-six snarl. With one year left on William Nylander’s deal, I get the sense that they’ll use him as an own rental, before he becomes a cap casualty. This will likely stand as the best constructed roster of the Auston Matthews era. This will likely be Toronto’s best shot to win a Stanley Cup with this group.

The Buffalo Sabres ascension cannot be postponed any longer. Their near playoff miss last season is reminiscent of the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks team that came up just short, before basking in a decade of wild success. You couldn’t ask for a better core of building blocks. They are blessed with budding franchise players like Tage Thompson, Owen Power, and Rasmus Dahlin. Cornerstones like that, coupled with a capable supporting cast will make Buffalo one of the most exciting teams in the NHL.

A post-season berth is all but guaranteed for the Sabres; mercifully putting an end to the longest playoff drought in North American pro sports. Similarities abound between the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. Both veteran squads are on the downswing from extended runs at the top. Pundits have been anticipating a passing of the torch from these two teams to burgeoning young rosters in the Atlantic. I’m dubious on that transition taking place in 2023-24. Early season adversity will test their mettle.

The Bruins downfall has been greatly exaggerated in the wake of losing their top-two centres in one fell swoop. Amid the retirement of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, and the loss of Taylor Hall and Bertuzzi, they’ve lost a lot of offensive punch. However, the Bruins should be buoyed by an elite blueline and arguably the best tandem in the league. Tampa Bay has been dealt a devastating blow, with the news that Andre Vasilevskiy will be on the shelf for two months. An elsewise star-studded Lightning team should theoretically hold the fort enough to survive without him. Surely there will be trepidation entrusting an extended period to 28-year-old Jonas Johansson and his 35 games of NHL experience.

On the heels of a finals appearance, I’m hesitantly predicting the Florida Panthers to finish just shy of the dance. Ultimately, someone from the pool of deserving teams must draw the short straw. Health is a top three factor in the success in any squad’s success. Seeing the Panthers start behind the eight ball without the services of Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour, and Sam Bennett makes them a candidate for regression. Provided their injury luck changes, it’s very possible that franchise superstars Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov can carry the Panthers on their back in a late season push to squeak in. Finally, we have the bottom three teams in the Atlantic; all of which are in various stages of growth.

The Ottawa Senators are furthest along in the rebuilding process. Expectations vary with this team perhaps more than any other in the conference. Some are anointing them as moderate playoff hopefuls, while others forecast another year of growing pains. There are too many question marks in Ottawa for me to see a path where they finish with anything much greater than a .500 record.

The Detroit Red Wings are largely unspectacular at every position. They possess competent depth at forward, without the potency of any true superstar offensive talents. Outside of Moritz Seider, it would be generous to call their blueline average. Husso and Reimer are a respectable tandem, but certainly not strong enough to will this lacklustre team into any delusions of grandeur. Simply being competitive shouldn’t be the bar at this stage in the rebuild for Detroit. They simply haven’t bottomed out enough to acquire top end talent at the draft. A few too many wins in recent years, coupled with poor luck in the lottery has put the Red Wings in an unenviable position.

As for the Montreal Canadiens, there’s little to analyze. They will be in contention for last place in the Eastern Conference. Fans can look forward to the continued maturation of a promising young edition of the bleu, blanc et rouge.

Metropolitan Division

1. New Jersey Devils – 110
2. Carolina Hurricanes – 107
3. New York Rangers – 101
4. New York Islanders – 96
5. Pittsburgh Penguins – 90
6. Washington Capitals – 83
7. Columbus Blue Jackets – 78
8. Philadelphia Flyers – 62

Historically speaking, the New Jersey Devils haven’t been the most entertaining team to watch. This year’s Devils will showcase the most high-flying brand of hockey ever played in The Garden State. Expect equal parts highlight reel content and regular season success from New Jersey this season. Not to say they won’t experience playoff success, but that’s a discussion for another time. Jack Hughes could easily find himself in the Hart Trophy conversation. His younger brother Luke is among a small group of favourites to be in contention for Calder votes. Even promising prospects like Simon Nemec are poised to make an impact even if they don’t make the team out of camp. Lines one through four in New Jersey are as deep as any team in the NHL, with a high-end D core to match. Like most teams in the NHL, goaltending is a bit of a mystery box, but nothing to lose sleep over. The Devils are set to compete for the Stanley Cup for the foreseeable future.

A number of sports betting sites have the Carolina Hurricanes listed with the best or second-best odds to win it all next spring. Aside from bringing in Michael Bunting and reacquiring Tony DeAngelo, the Canes are largely running back the same roster and rightfully so. The Rangers are a playoff lock, by virtue of Igor Shesterkin. The delayed arrival of Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere continues to be a storyline in the Big Apple. While they’ve emerged as serviceable NHL players, higher dividends need to be paid to justify the investment poured into the once tantalizing prospects. One or both of them will need to rise to the occasion to compensate for the loss of last year’s deadline pickup Patrick Kane.

Like their New York brethren, the Islanders would be a club in turmoil without the heroics of their franchise cornerstone between the pipes. Many are split on the Isles’ fortunes. What are they? Is being a pesky, low scoring team a good thing or a bad thing? They play a style that’s rewarded in a playoff setting, but usually results in only 82 games. If they squeak in, it’ll be just barely. It’s not the greatest endorsement, but I see health woes in Florida and the Pittsburgh Pensguins being the Islanders gain.

Enter the Kyle Dubas era in Pittsburgh. He’s made it clear that the mandate is to remain competitive for as long as Sidney Crosby wears the black and yellow. Whether or not that’s wise is up for debate, but here we are. History tells us that key players like Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are likely to miss significant time. Add to that how turbulent their goaltending situation has been and you have a recipe for uncertainty. Augmenting the lineup with Erik Karlsson would theoretically propel the Pens into playoff contention. However, someone must make way for the emerging Buffalo Sabres, and it’s either the Penguins or the Islanders.

The Washington Capitals are another team artificially extending their lifespan of perceived competitiveness in order to accommodate a legend of the game. They get the pass of having a more justified reason, seeing as Alexander Ovechkin is chasing down Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record. Make no mistake, though. The Capitals have absolutely no shot at qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Thankfully, Ovechkin already has his cup ring, which will make watching this Franken-roster on life support more palatable.

No team has dodged a bullet quite as much as the Columbus Blue Jackets. For a young team on the rise, the last they would’ve needed is a toxic presence like Mike Babcock behind the bench. New head coach Pascal Vincent, who should’ve been promoted years ago, will finally take the reigns. Under his tutelage, the Jackets can focus on the development of youngsters like Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli. There are zero stakes this season. All this organization has to do is lay the groundwork for the future core. Kicking ands screaming, the Flyers have finally entered the rebuild phase of their life cycle. You’d be hard pressed to find many other rosters with less cumulative talent. Philadelphia Flyers fans should be prepared for at least four more years of being a lottery team.

Central Division

1. Colorado Avalanche – 119
2. Dallas Stars – 107
3. Minnesota Wild – 96
4. Winnipeg Jets – 91
5. Nashville Predators – 87
6. St. Louis Blues – 84
7. Arizona Coyotes – 82
8. Chicago Blackhawks – 64

The central is a two-team division. Outside of Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars, there isn’t much to fear. Some middling squad will qualify for the post-season by virtue of every division needing at least three teams to be represented. Colorado is blessed with the best blueline in the league. They easily have the best pairing in the league, with Devon Toews and Cale Makar – the latter being the NHL’s top blueliner. Toews is one of the most effective 5-on-5 defenceman over the last three seasons. The Avs embarrassment of riches continues with 22-year-old Bowen Byram poised to breakout as one of the league’s premiere rearguards. Even with the loss of captain Gabe Landeskog, their forward core remains incredibly lethal at the top and respectably deep. Colorado will be amongst the favourites to win the President’s Trophy, amongst other hardware in June.

Dallas is in a small group of teams who can boast at least one superstar forward, defenceman, and goaltender. Respectively, those are Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Jake Oettinger. In any given year, they could be nominated for major NHL Awards. As a sidenote, Oettinger might be smart money for the Vezina this year. With some minor upgrades at the deadline, the Stars may very well come out of the Western Conference. The Minnesota Wild have overcome some major self-inflicted salary cap wounds in order to remain competitive. Their buyout penalties will see them carry nearly $15 million in dead cap for the 2023-24 season. Despite that, a relatively weak division will be their saving grace.

The Winnipeg Jets are riding high after getting matching eight-year commitments from Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck. Now we have confirmation that the Jets will at least try to aim for a playoff spot, as opposed to selling off assets at the deadline. These latest developments could be enough to sneak them into the playoffs. As is usually the case, it’ll be entirely up to Hellebuyck to carry them as far as he can. Don’t let last year’s late season push by the Nashville Predators fool you into thinking they’ll have a bounce back. Time and time again, we see last minute brilliance from fringe teams that doesn’t translate to the fall. Anything is possible with a rockstar like Saros keeping them in games, but it would also require a significant underperformance from a pacific team.

Think of the St. Louis Blues as sort of a Washington of the West. They’re a team who might be slightly overrated based on reputation. The Blues have a roster peppered with veterans, which prevents them from sinking too low. There is also a hard ceiling that makes it difficult to envision the Blues breaking 85 points. Sneakily, the Arizona Coyotes became one of the most improved teams this off-season, adding the likes of Sean Durzi, Logan Cooley, Matt Dumba, and Alex Kerfoot. Continued maturation from J.J Moser and sophomore sensation Matias Maccelli should also give the Yotes a boost. It’ll be another development year in the desert but expect a big leap forward.

After the trade deadline last season, the Chicago Blackhawks iced what is possibly the worst NHL roster ever seen in the salary cap era. Fans can be excited to watch Connor Bedard rip up alongside Taylor Hall. Besides that, there’s little else to speak of with the team. Chicago will be in a tight race for last place in the West again this season.

Pacific Division

1. Edmonton Oilers – 108
2. Los Angeles Kings – 105
3. Vegas Golden Knights – 103
4. Calgary Flames – 96
5. Vancouver Canucks – 93
6. Seattle Kraken – 88
7. Anaheim Ducks -70
8. San Jose Sharks – 67

It’s now safe to anoint the Pacific as the best division in hockey. With the exception of the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks, it’s shaping up to be an incredibly tight race. “Cup or bust” is the phrase most often tied to the Edmonton Oilers this year. They find themselves in a similar situation to the Maple Leafs; the major difference being that time is their enemy. Whereas the Leafs have just inked Matthews to an extension, the Oilers are one year away from having to re-sign Leon Draisaitl. Everyone knows that Connor McDavid and Draisaitl are just as tight off the ice as on. I suspect that Draisaitl’s decision to stay or go will directly affected McDavid’s. The clock is ticking on the prime of, arguably, the top-two players on the planet. Leon and Connor also finally have the supporting cast necessary to make a deep playoff run. For those reasons, no team in the NHL is under more pressure to win the Stanley Cup this season than the Edmonton Oilers.

Goaltending has been the hottest point of debate surround the Los Angeles Kings of late. Some combination of Cam Talbot, Phoenix Copley, and David Rittich will tend the twine. I’m not nearly as worries as most, considering the state of goaltending right now. Scoring is way up. Where once .915 was the benchmark, .905 is perfectly serviceable. You no longer need one guy to start 60+ games. That’s a luxury enjoyed by only a handful of teams. Let last year serve as a reminder that a third-string goaltender can get hot and win you a cup out of the blue. The Kings skaters are as a solid as any team in the NHL. A team fully committed to playing structured hockey is a more realistic formula for winning than a heroic netminder standing on his head for two months. By no means is it meant as a slight having the Golden Knights in third place.

Edmonton, Los Angeles, and Vegas will occupy the top three, but the order is arbitrary. Consider this trio of teams to basically be in a tier. Finishing first will be highly incentivized. Only one of these teams will have the advantage of facing a wild-card team, whereas the other two will faceoff against one another. They will be squaring off in a high stakes game of musical chairs, for the chance to enter round 2 with some semblance of rest. Vegas may still be the team most equipped to handle that war of attrition. The Golden Knights have brought back almost the entire roster that won them the Stanley Cup. A repeat run is very much in the cards. A mushy middle exists, consisting of Calgary, Vancouver and Seattle. Two of the three are likely bound for the playoffs. Guessing which two that might be is a fool’s errand, but here I go.

Gambling on the resurgence of Jacob Markstrom and Jonathan Huberdeau is my primary reason for giving the Calgary Flames some slack. Improvement is inevitable, based on their abysmal outings in 2022-23. What remains to be seen is how dramatically they can recover from the ostensible damage done by former head coach Darryl Sutter. Particularly in Huberdeau’s case, I expect a gigantic return to form. 80-90 points seems like a reasonable ask. He can expect a full year of being deployed properly, on a powerplay that is actually permitted to create and improvise. Markstrom has displayed a pattern of one good season, followed by a poor one, and so on. His good ones are of Vezina quality. If he actually becomes an advantage on a nightly basis, the playoffs are all but secured. Without question, Markstrom is the biggest x-factor for the Flames.

A stronger defence is the biggest difference between this year’s Vancouver Canucks and last. The improvement is marginal, but one that might prevent them ruining their season before Christmas. Newly minted captain Quinn Hughes looks poised to enjoy a career year. Several fantasy outlets expect Elias Pettersson to finish top five in league scoring. Thatcher Demko is an excellent bet to be amongst the top goaltenders in the game this year. Vancouver has the tools required to get in. Playing in such a stiff division is the real cause for concern.

Making a bet on the Seattle Kraken scoring by committee again isn’t iron clad. Neither is banking on another 40-goal campaign from Jared McCann. Relying on consistently sub-.900 goaltending from Philipp Grubauer is another cause for concern. Although there’s a lot to like about the Kraken, they have more question marks than the teams ahead of them. Betting on them to beat the odds two years in a row, though tempting, is not something I’m prepared to do. Anaheim’s preseason saw them resolve the contract quagmire between them and star forward Trevor Zegras. Not long after, it became public that some mild friction between him and coach Greg Cronin occurred at practice. The point of contention was his commitment to defence, or lack thereof. In the past, we’ve seen contract disputes that dragged into camp negatively affect said player throughout the campaign. If Zegras’ creativity to curtailed, I wonder if his offensive numbers might take a dip. The Ducks are already offensively challenged. Nerfing their attack further will make the race to the bottom a close one between the Ducks and Sharks.

San Jose is favoured by many to finish 32nd . Erik Karlsson’s departure will benefit them greatly in that venture. There modus operandi is a repeat of Chicago, Philadelphia, Montreal, and Anaheim. Every win in the standings will be a nuisance to their fans.