November 24, 2023 by Raghu Sharma

In a “Cup or Bust” season for the Edmonton Oilers, who came into the season with loads of promise, even arriving as an entire roster ahead of training camp, find themselves with a fired coach, a demoted goalie, and a record of 5-12-1 to start the season.

The start could not be worse after such lofty expectations from many pundits that cover the NHL. This has led me go back and assess the state of the Oilers, and how it might not be as shocking as many claim it to be.

Let’s look objectively at the last two Cup runs and the five playoff series for the Oilers. The story could have been worse. They won a tough series against the Los Angeles Kings in 2022 after trailing 3-2 in the series and coming back to win Games 6 and 7. In Game 7, which I attended, the Oilers held a 1-0 lead for most of the game, and found a way to secure a hard-fought 2-0 victory. The Kings are no slouch, and this was a tough, but good test for the team. Though it was a lot harder than many expected going in.

In the 2022 Western Conference Second Round, the Oilers came into the series considered the underdogs against the Calgary Flames. The Oilers were down 1-0 in the series and down 2-0 in Game 2 with a Michael Backlund breakaway that could have made it 3-0 and possibly ice the game. However, the Oilers managed to win that series in five games, but it was not a defensive affair by any means. In fact, it reminded many of the Battle of Alberta matchups from the 1980s.

Following that series, the Oilers were swept by the Colorado Avalanche, who went on to win the Stanley Cup in 2022. Making the final four was a huge achievement, but the fans and the players knew more work had to be done.

Last year, the Oilers came into the season with high expectations and started the season strong with a 7-3-0 record to then be impacted by injuries sitting at a 10-10-0 record 20 games into the season. The Oilers have always been a strong second-half of the season team, and went on to dominate the NHL finishing one behind the Vegas Golden Knights for the conference and division titles.

The Oilers once again faced the Kings in opening round of the playoffs, and once again found themselves behind the 8-ball, losing Game 1 and then sitting on a 2-1 series deficit. Similar to the Battle of Alberta from the previous year, the Oilers found themselves down 3-0 in the first period of Game 4. Their sense of resolve brought about a huge comeback and overtime goal from Zach Hyman that changed the series leading to the Oilers winning the series in six games. However, if the Oilers had lost that game, it would likely have meant a first-round exit.

In round two, the Oilers were taken out by the eventual Stanley Cup champions, the Golden Knights. This series showed the weakness at depth across the board of this team, specifically during the controversial one-game suspensions to both Alex Pietrangelo and Darnell Nurse for Game 5, where Vegas was able to slot up their defensive core – something the Oilers were not able to match. Most considered this a step back with a loss in the final eight, but the Oilers arguably faced a tough path with Vegas in round two last year than against Calgary the year before. No two years are one in the same.

While the Oilers performed admirably with top four and top eight finishes in consecutive years, the weakness at depth scoring, defensive errors and the over reliance on special teams compared to other competing rosters has been a legitimate concern with this team for years. The Oilers have the two best players in the world, but defending is just as important as scoring goals. The old adage that defense wins championships holds true today as much as it ever has in the NHL.

A number of pundits this past off-season picked the Oilers to win the cup off the narrative that this team lost to the Cup winner two years in a row, thus it was their time. What a lot of them banked on was positive progression, but forgetting that other teams also improved their rosters.

As a diehard Oilers fan, one of my biggest fears coming into this season was the loss of hard-working depth players in Klim Kostin and Kailer Yamamoto, the only addition being Connor Brown who had a bonus clause that was number of games played (10) and not performance/points based, the lack of additions on defence, and the faith in a Jack Campbell recovery season.

As fans, we have come to expect things from this team because of past history, however, the NHL has more parity than ever before. Things could have gone really well this year (and still could), but if we are looking at the roster objectively, it’s also not improbable to see what has transpired either.

So far this season, the Oilers are 0-5-1 when getting 40 or more shots in a game. This can be attributed to bad luck, but the rival Calgary Flames faced something similar last year, racking up losses the same way. At the end of the day, quality over quantity matters, and I haven’t felt the Oilers deserved wins just because of outshooting opponents. Goaltending issues are there, defensive accountability as well, and on top of that our elite power-play has become middle of the pack again with five-on-five scoring still an issue. It’s all been a terrible domino effect so far.

I have seen a lot of optimistic posts mentioning how long it took Alexander Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Nathan MacKinnon to win a Cup. My only argument to these comparisons with respect to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is, the Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche consistently iced rosters that were strong on all three fronts of offence, defence and goaltending.

As mentioned earlier, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to winning a Cup. Only one team can win each season. Until the Oilers address issues at depth offence, a true defensive core that can compete when the playoffs come and reliable goaltending, I fear that winning four different series four out of seven times is a big ask, unless you get lucky with the opposition you face. The Oilers and their fans truly deserve better than the product that has been put on the ice thus far, and hopefully they can find a way to right the ship.

I do want to end on a very optimistic note. though. The roster has capability, and if the team is able to win their next two games, they will have a record of 7-12-1 in 20 games, which would put them five points shy of where they were at this time a year ago.

All hope is not lost yet, but if there was ever a time for General Manager Ken Holland, the highest paid GM in the league to make a move, the time is now. The coach has already been scapegoated once, so if Holland wants to prove he cares enough about winning the Cup one more time, he will make a game-changing move to help out this roster before it’s too late.