February 14, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Much has been made about the fact that Connor Brown hasn’t scored a goal yet this season. The prized summer free agent signing of the Edmonton Oilers has a mere four points in 42 games played this season. That’s not good enough for Brown. I’m hard on him because he has shown that he’s capable of more in the past. I feel that Brown should be scratched in favour of Sam Gagner.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Brown’s goal share at five-on-five this season is 7-14 (33.33%). Not only is he not scoring or contributing offence, he’s drowning at five-on-five. 

Brown has brought down every centre that he has played with this season. McDavid’s goal share with Brown at five-on-five when they were together early in the season was 16.67%. McDavid’s goal share away from Brown is 64.10%. The sample size is only 51:45 with Brown and McDavid together though. 

Brown has spent 136:55 with Leon Draisaitl this season. Draisaitl’s goal share with Brown was 25%, and it jumped to 61.54% without Brown. He has played 128:22 with Ryan McLeod. The difference isn’t as startling as it is with the top guns, but McLeod’s goal share jumps from 50% with Brown to 60.61% without him. Derek Ryan’s goal share goes from 0% (0-2) to 47.06% (8-9) away from Brown. James Hamblin went from 50% with Brown to 66.67% without him. 

Brown has played 75:49 with Mattias Janmark. They have a 100% goal share, but the score is only 1-0. Janmark is at 45% without Brown. That difference is deceiving. Janmark’s expected goals for percentage goes from 43.67% with Brown to 56.53% without Brown.

The player that Brown has spent the most time with this season is Evander Kane (189:34). They have been outscored 2-11 (15.38%) while playing together. Kane’s goal share away from Brown is 27-22 (55.10%). Brown has dragged down the performance of any linemate that he has spent any considerable amount of time with this season.

An argument made by some fans and experts is that the Oilers are getting their money’s worth for a player that kills penalties for the league minimum; but I’m not settling for that with Brown, not when I know he has two 20-goal seasons under his belt and he received a $3.225 million bonus simply for playing in ten games.

The penalty kill has been fantastic since head coach Kris Knoblauch was hired. Brown is one of six forwards that was assigned a role on the penalty kill after Knoblauch came aboard. I dove into some numbers to see just how strong of a penalty killer Brown is when compared to the other five forwards that Knoblauch has put on the penalty kill.

Related: Oilers Penalty Killing Revival

The numbers in the table below are from Natural Stat Trick. The numbers are rates relative to teammates. In a metric like shots against where you want to allow the fewest shots possible, a negative number is better than a positive number. I examined shots and high danger chances for and against in this exercise. My goal was to figure out where Brown ranks among the six penalty killing forwards in terms of shot and high danger scoring chance suppression while shorthanded as well shot and high danger scoring chance creation while shorthanded.

	SF/60 Rel	SA/60 Rel	SF% Rel	HDCF/60 Rel	HDCA/60 Rel	HDCF%/60 Rel
Brown	1.92 (3rd)	-5.48 (3rd)	4.17 (3rd)	3.5 (1st)	-0.35 (3rd)	10.53 (2nd)
Janmark	4.95	-4.28	7.96	0.61	1.56	0.77
Foegele	8.28	-21.83	20.56	2.44	-4.96	12.06
Nuge	-2.65	16.96	-2.65	0.05	7.26	-11.98
Ryan	-5.48	21.72	-12.52	-3.91	12.73	-19.41
McLeod	-3.13	-16.81	0.94	-4.21	-13.37	-6.05

I feel quite confident in saying that Brown is the third best forward in this group at shot and high danger scoring chance suppression. That’s the middle of the pack. Brown is the best forward in this group at creating high danger scoring chances while shorthanded. That’s where he excels. However, he has exactly zero shorthanded points. Those chances aren’t leading to anything but some time off the clock.

My point here is that Brown is not the team’s best penalty killer. I value shot and high danger scoring chance suppression more than I value shorthanded scoring chances for in a penalty killer because shorthanded goals are so rare. Getting a shorthanded goal is a bonus. A few shorthanded scoring chances aren’t indispensable. While Brown is good at suppressing shots and high danger scoring chances, he is not the best forward on the team at those skills.

Brown’s performance on the penalty kill is not irreplaceable. There are options on the roster that could slot in for Brown on the penalty kill. Zach Hyman can kill penalties. Dylan Holloway was killing penalties in Bakersfield, and he has the speed to get to the right places in time. The system being deployed by Mark Stuart doesn’t require forwards to get in shot blocking lanes, so I would even be alright with McDavid and Draisaitl getting some penalty killing time.

I get frustrated when I see Brown, a player that isn’t contributing offensively and is getting caved in at even strength, fail to get the puck out of the defensive zone when he has the chance to do so. I’ve seen multiple examples of that in recent games. I get frustrated when I see the play die on Brown’s stick in the offensive zone. Brown has lost whatever offensive confidence he had prior to his injury.

I get even more frustrated about those seemingly minute details when I see Sam Gagner being healthy scratched in favour of Brown. Gagner has positive metrics in every important category at five-on-five, and he has five goals and ten points in only 23 games this season. Gagner has the hands to keep plays alive and to capitalize on some of the chances that he gets.

Gagner is much older than Brown and is coming off of a serious injury, but Brown is also coming off of a serious injury. The numbers say that Gagner is a better choice than Brown right now. The eye test says that Gagner is a better choice than Brown right now. I see a free agent signing that was negotiated by his former agent and new Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson getting preferential treatment on a team coached by his former junior coach. 

Brown was made a healthy scratch on December 21, 2023, and I’m sure he wasn’t happy about it. Gagner got hurt in that game, so Brown got back into the lineup the next game. That game against the Devils was the first win in the Oilers’ sixteen game streak that recently ended.

Related: Connor Brown to be Healthy Scratch

I understand that Brown earned a $3.225 million performance bonus, which means that there’s a lot of money sunk into the player. That money is gone, and continuing to play him isn’t going to change that. There’s no point in playing a guy that is pulling the boat in the wrong direction just because he was a free agent signing that was given a big performance bonus.

Brown is clearly fighting some confidence issues, and I think some time to just work on his game in practice and to stop overthinking things on the ice would do Brown a lot of good. I like the potential of the Brown that played for the Ottawa Senators, but this version of Brown is a far cry from that. I want to see him succeed here, and I think benching him in favour of Gagner for a little while is the best play right now.

Related: Oilers Sign Connor Brown