February 29, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

We’re about a week away from the NHL Trade Deadline. The Edmonton Oilers are in the mix, and there are Stanley Cup expectations in Oil Country. Holland managed to get Mattias Ekholm at last year’s deadline, and Oilers fans are hoping for a similarly impactful trade within the next week. Here is an Oilers trade deadline preview.

GM Ken Holland is believed to be interested in a number of different players at a variety of positions. That much was made clear on Thursday’s edition of Insider Trading. Darren Dreger talked about how the Oilers and the Vegas Golden Knights are both aggressively seeking a top six forward. Pierre LeBrun talked about how the Oilers were a finalist in the Chris Tanev sweepstakes. Apparently the Calgary Flames had an offer involving a first rounder and a player with term, but the Flames didn’t want to go that route. If Tanev would’ve been squeezed onto the Oilers roster, Cody Ceci would’ve gone the other way. Ceci has another year left on his contract after this season. I can confirm nothing, but I can put two and two together.

There’s plenty of intrigue because there are few clear sellers this season. Four teams in the Metropolitan Division are within seven points of a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference heading into Thursday night’s action. One of those teams has five games in hand on the Tampa Bay Lightning, the current final Eastern Conference wild card spot holders. One of those teams has two games in hand, and the other two teams have three games in hand. The picture is more clear in the Western Conference, where the Los Angeles Kings and the Nashville Predators have a five point cushion over the next closest challenger for their Western Conference wild card spots.

Cap space is an issue for the Oilers, but it isn’t as much of an issue as it has been in recent seasons because the team is not operating in LTIR this season. The team has been able to accrue cap space all season. 

There are 192 days in this season, which is a bit more than the typical 186 days in a season. Anyway, if you take the $83.5 million salary cap and divide it by 192, you get $434,895.83. That is how much a team can spend on player salaries per day on average. Daily spending is calculated by taking each player’s cap hit, dividing it by 192 days, and adding up the values for each player on the roster that day. If a team’s cap spending is below $433,895.83 on a given day, then they gain $1000 in cap space to use later in the season. Those little $1000 gains add up over the course of the season leading up to the trade deadline. That’s how accruing cap space works.

Example of cap space accruing:

Today, #LetsGoOilers can fit $1.81M of annual cap hit.
If they wait until the deadline, that increases to $2.37M.

Waiting 13 more days allows them to add $560K more annual cap hit.https://t.co/Yq0s2KIqV4

— PuckPedia (@PuckPedia) February 24, 2024

According to PuckPedia, the Oilers will have accrued $2.37 million in cap space by the March 8 trade deadline assuming that the roster stays as is until then. That could get them a middle or bottom six forward, or a bottom four defender potentially. That could turn into a top six forward or a top four defenceman with salary retention involved. The Oilers could also move money out to make room for a bigger contract. The Oilers can make a splash if they want to make one.

You have to give if you want to get though. There aren’t many roster players that are truly expendable. I would point to Warren Foegele, Cody Ceci, and Brett Kulak as the most likely players to be involved in any sort of trade where money ends up being moved out.

One of the first things that CEO Jeff Jackson did after arriving in Edmonton was firing former Head of Amateur Scouting Tyler Wright. Nobody that was drafted in Wright’s tenure has truly made an impact at the NHL level yet. I don’t think that Jackson is married to any current Oilers prospect. 

Trading picks and prospects is fine right now because the Oilers are in “win now” mode, but they have to be careful to not completely empty the already lean prospect cupboard. There are no true “can’t miss” prospects in the Oilers system right now, but having players in the pipeline that can contribute in the NHL on cheap deals will be vital to any success that the team has over the course of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s next contracts should they re-sign in Edmonton.

The Oilers don’t have their third or fourth round picks this year, and they traded away their 2025 second round pick. Elliotte Friedman reported that the Oilers won’t trade Philip Broberg for a rental during his Saturday headlines segment on Hockey Night in Canada on February 17, 2024. That doesn’t mean that Broberg couldn’t be involved in a trade for a player with term though. 

Raphael Lavoie got a cup of coffee with the Oilers in his first season of not being exempt from the waivers process, but he didn’t accomplish much in limited ice time. He scored his 20th goal of the season for the Bakersfield Condors as part of a three-goal, four-point performance on Wednesday night. He could be an appealing prospect for a team parting with a top six forward.

HATTY! 🎩🎩🎩 pic.twitter.com/kwZFRt7Crq

— Bakersfield Condors (@Condors) February 29, 2024

Markus Niemelainen and Phil Kemp are two other prospects that could easily be on their way out the door. Both defence prospects are 25 years old. Niemelainen has one point in 43 NHL games, and he has not played in the NHL this season. Kemp got into one game for the Oilers, but he played as a winger and he only played 2:03. I don’t see either working their way into the Oilers lineup any time soon. Either one could be used in a deal to acquire a veteran depth defenceman.

I believe that Lavoie and Niemelainen are the two most likely prospects to be moved ahead of next Friday’s trade deadline because both are on expiring contracts and both are on the verge of being able to help an NHL team. Acquiring teams won’t have to wait long for either of those two players to contribute to their NHL clubs; and if they don’t end up contributing, then an acquiring team won’t have wasted time and money developing the players.

There are a lot of scenarios that could play out here. The Oilers could make a move similar to the Tanev deal where they use a third team to retain salary and get an impact player for 25% of the cap hit. They could move money out to make room for a bigger contract or more players, or they could just add another depth piece or two. I’ll dive into more of the potential targets and trade deadline scenarios leading up to the trade deadline, so stay tuned to Heavy Hockey for more.