March 20, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers signed Connor Ungar to an entry-level contract on Monday. The 22-year old goaltender is fresh off of a stellar season with Brock University. He compiled a 20-6 record with a .932 save percentage and a 2.15 goals against average.

Related: Oilers sign goalie Connor Ungar to entry-level contract

This is an astute signing by the Oilers. Finding prospects in college or university hockey is going to have to be a continuing trend for the Oilers because they find themselves in a situation where their prospect cupboard is pretty bare and they continue to trade draft picks for players that they feel can help them win now. Logan Thompson of the Vegas Golden Knights is a recent example of a goaltender coming out of the Brock University program that has gone on to become an NHLer, and the Oilers hope for the same type of fortune with Ungar. 

The Oilers are low on prospects, but they do have organizational depth in goal. Ungar has been assigned to the AHL, where Jack Campbell and Olivier Rodrigue are more than capably handling the load on a Bakersfield Condors team that is in the thick of a playoff race. Then there’s Ryan Fanti, a 24-year old that was a college free agent signing for the Oilers a couple of years ago who is starting for the Fort Wayne Komets of the ECHL right now. Let’s dive in and look at each player’s situation more closely to see where Ungar might fit in next season.

Ryan Fanti

Fanti signed a two-year entry level contract with the Oilers on March 29, 2022 after bowing out of the 2022 NCAA Frozen Four tournament in the round of eight in an upset at the hands of Oilers prospect Carter Savoie and his Denver University squad. Savoie scored the game winning goal in a 2-1 win over Fanti’s University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs. Fanti was a star for University of Minnesota-Duluth. He had a .929 save percentage and a sparkling 1.83 GAA that season.

He got into one game for the Condors at the end of the 2021-22 season in which he allowed five goals on 41 shots. Fanti got a cup of coffee with the Condors to start the 2022-23 season. He made eight appearances and didn’t fare all that well (0-5-1, .884 sv%, 3.71 GAA). Fanti was ECHL bound after that, where he didn’t fare much better than he did in Bakersfield (15-16-1, .894 sv%, 3.49 GAA).

Fanti had hip surgery during this past off-season, and his first on-ice sighting during the 2023-24 season occurred at Oilers practice on November 29, 2023. He was activated off of season opening long-term injured reserve and subsequently assigned to the Komets on January 24, 2024. Since then, Fanti has made thirteen appearances. His numbers have greatly improved since returning from his injury (7-4-2, .912 sv%, 2.85 GAA).

Fanti is 24 years old and will be an RFA at the end of this season. He is under team control, but that doesn’t mean that the Oilers will choose to re-sign him. Ungar’s signing could be viewed as a big tell as to what the Oilers are thinking with Fanti’s future. The most likely scenario is that Fanti will not receive a qualifying offer this summer and Ungar will replace Fanti as the starter in Fort Wayne next season.

However, Fanti’s improved play this season could put him in the conversation for a backup role with the Condors next season. Let’s have some fun here and play this out…

Olivier Rodrigue

The Oilers traded up in the 2018 NHL draft to take Rodrigue. They acquired the 2018 second round pick used to select Rodrigue from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for a 2018 third round pick (Jordan Harris) and a 2018 fifth round pick (Samuel Houde). Rodrigue’s father, Sylvain Rodrigue, became the goaltending coach for the Bakersfield Condors prior to the 2018-19 season. The elder Rodrigue had been in the Oilers organization for the previous five seasons. It’s needless to say that the organization has a lot invested in the younger Rodrigue.

Rodrigue has emerged as a strong goaltending prospect over the past two seasons. He made some noise last season with a 14-14-1 record, a .912 save percentage, and a 2.77 GAA. This season, he has further elevated his play with a 14-8-4 record, a .918 save percentage, and a 2.71 GAA. He’s been playing at a high level for an extended period of time. 

The 23-year old is an RFA this summer. He will have to pass through waivers to be sent down to the Condors next season, so the organization will have a decision on their hands this coming fall. He could certainly be in the mix for a backup role with the Oilers next season. There’s also a chance that he gets claimed by another team if he doesn’t make the Oilers out of training camp. The situation with the next player on the list will certainly be a factor in where Rodrigue plays next fall…

Jack Campbell

Oilers fans are all too aware of the situation with Campbell. He signed a five-year, $25 million contract with the Oilers two summers ago, which will live as GM Ken Holland’s biggest mistake barring an unforeseen recovery in the last three years of Campbell’s contract. Campbell had a fantastic record last season (21-9-4), which was more a product of having the league’s top offence and the most productive powerplay in league history in front of him rather than his .888 save percentage and his 3.41 GAA.

Campbell had an intense summer of training and had an excellent preseason, but he stumbled out of the gate. He started during an 8-1 thrashing at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks in the season opener, and things didn’t really get better for him from there. Campbell went 1-4 with a .873 save percentage and a 4.50 GAA before being sent down to the Condors.

To his credit, he has largely been fantastic for the Condors. Despite a slow start while sorting out his game and dealing with the mental aspects of being demoted, he has a 16-12 record with a .920 save percentage, a 2.58 GAA, and three shutouts.

It will be interesting to see where the Campbell situation goes in the short and long-term. There is no salary cap in the playoffs, so he will likely be on the Oilers roster during the playoffs once the Condors are eliminated. Whether or not he gets any ice time for the Oilers during the playoffs or not remains to be seen. It would be a risk given that he hasn’t seen NHL action since November 4, 2023; but Campbell played well in the playoffs last season, and the current Oilers backup has never played a playoff game in his career.

The Oilers will be in cap trouble next season. Moving Campbell’s contract would open up a lot of space. He could be bought out this summer, which would create $3.9 million in cap space. However, then he would be on the books for six more seasons! The Oilers will be carrying a $1,916,667 cap hit from the James Neal buyout next year. That’s why I would rather retain salary or spend draft capital to move Campbell via trade than buy him out. Having said all of that, there’s a real chance that Campbell could work his way back into the rotation next season. He could also be right back in Bakersfield as well. Campbell is a wild card, and Ungar is an organizational insurance policy in case of a departure from higher on the depth chart.

Calvin Pickard

Kudos to Pickard. Prior to this season, he hadn’t played an NHL game since the 2021-22 season in which he played in three games with the Detroit Red Wings. The 31-year old is a former second round pick that has never been able to grab a hold of an NHL job for any length of time. He’s sporting a 10-4 record, his 2.25 GAA this season is the best of his career, and his .919 save percentage is his third best of his career.

Pickard has proven to be a more than capable backup, and his cap hit is cheap ($762,500). I can’t say that he will get a big raise over the league minimum entering his 32-year old season. However, his stellar play this season could still price him out of the Oilers’ range given their lack of cap space. Having Pickard is a luxury that the Oilers might not be able to afford next season unless they move Campbell or bury him in the minors again.

Pickard might also want to go somewhere where he would be guaranteed an NHL job for the entire season. Regardless of your opinion on the situation, Campbell’s presence in the organization prevents that from being a guarantee. Many Oilers fans and pundits wanted the team to trade for an upgrade on Pickard prior to the trade deadline, and those cries will certainly be resurrected in the summer despite Pickard’s performance.

Stuart Skinner

The one thing we know is that Skinner will be the Oilers’ starter next season. Skinner is the clear number one on the organizational depth chart. The Oilers informally made that promise to him last season by starting him in every game in last year’s playoffs and by burying Campbell in the minors this season. Skinner will be a UFA after the 2025-26 season. 

Things are far from certain for goaltenders without moustaches in the Oilers organization. Like I said, the most likely landing spot for Ungar as a 22-year old rookie next season will be in the ECHL. I don’t think the Oilers are married to Fanti, and having Ungar simply take his place next season would make a lot of sense. 

However, the potential departures of Campbell and Pickard will certainly create some off-season intrigue for the Oilers. If one leaves, then the other would certainly be the backup next season. If Campbell gets bought out or traded and Pickard decides to test free agency, then the Oilers will be in a pickle. It would take a sensational training camp from Rodrigue to earn a spot with the Oilers next season in my opinion, but his play certainly warrants a discussion. They would need to acquire an NHL backup and somebody to play backup in the AHL if Fanti is not qualified or if Ungar needs ECHL time (which is likely).

Ungar’s signing could just be an astute move to get a late-blooming prospect into the organization, or it could be an insurance policy in case of changes higher on the organizational depth chart. We will have to wait until July to find out!