April 15, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg and Eric Friesen

The Vancouver Canucks defeated the Edmonton Oilers by a score of 3-1 at Rogers Place on Saturday. The Oilers now sit five points back of the Canucks for the Pacific Division lead with three games remaining. The Canucks have not mathematically clinched the Pacific Division crown yet, but Saturday’s victory over the Oilers has all but cemented their place atop the division.

With the Oilers firmly locked into the second seed in the Pacific Division, they will either face the Los Angeles Kings or the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. That leads us to our question for this edition of the Heavy Hockey Faceoff: Which team would you rather the Oilers face in round one, the Kings or the Golden Knights? Ryan Lotsberg and Eric Friesen debate the topic below:

Lotsy: I would rather the Oilers face the Golden Knights. The Oilers would come into that series sufficiently motivated after being eliminated by the Golden Knights last spring. The leaders on the Oilers were all extremely disappointed after losing that series. I can’t think of a better way to kick off the 2024 playoffs that to get a chance at conquering that demon. The Golden Knights started this season 11-0-1, but they have gone 32-28-7 since then. That’s a pretty mediocre team. We’ve seen the defending Stanley Cup champions go home early many times over the years. The Golden Knights are ripe for the taking.

Friesen: There isn’t a better first opponent for the Oilers than the Kings. Even if they secure third place in the Pacific Division, the Kings are arguably the least threating playoff team in the Western Conference. Plus, they are a team the Oilers know they can beat. The Oilers have an 8-5 playoff record against the Kings since 2022, and Edmonton won three of four meetings against the Kings in 2023-24. While the Kings have two of the better shutdown centres in the league in Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault, they simply can’t match the all-world talent the Oilers possess with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the charge. For the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup, they will have to face several legitimate contenders along the way, but they couldn’t ask for a more ideal matchup than the Kings in the opening round.

Lotsy: While I agree that the Kings are the weaker matchup on paper, they have been much better since they made their coaching change on February 5. The Kings are 19-11-1 since making their coaching change during the All-Star break. The Golden Knights are 14-13-2 since the All-Star break. The Oilers have beaten the Kings in the playoffs in two consecutive seasons, but how long can one team expect to beat the other team consecutively before the other one gets on the board? The Kings had the Oilers on the ropes with a 3-2 series lead heading into a game six in Los Angeles in 2022, and game seven of that series was tightly contested. That series could easily have gone the other way. The Oilers would certainly be favoured against the Kings, but we can’t discount the Kings simply because the Oilers have beaten them two years in a row.

Friesen: It’s true that the Kings have been better than the Golden Knights since returning from the All-Star break. Vegas ranks 19th in the league in points percentage during that span (.517). Still, they are the defending the Stanley Cup champions and haven’t had a fully healthy roster at any point since February. They will be icing a super lineup that exceeds the regular season salary cap when the playoffs start, and could be a tough out for even the best teams in the West. If the Golden Knights end up in the first wild-card spot, I would pick them to “upset” the Canucks in the first round of the playoffs. Though Adin Hill has a dreadful .876 save percentage since February 12, he was amongst the best goalies in the league for the bulk of the season. He also beat the Oilers in the playoffs last spring. The Oilers are more familiar with former teammate and Kings’ goalie Cam Talbot, who McDavid and Draisaitl know they can solve.

Lotsy: The Golden Knights lead the NHL in man games lost due to injury this season. That lack of health is why I would rather see the Oilers face them in round one than later in the post-season. Every team gets bruised and battered during the playoffs, but the Golden Knights’ injured players will get stronger as they play in more games. They’re at their most vulnerable in round one. Mark Stone will likely be at less than 100% when he comes back. Tomas Hertl will have only played six games as a Golden Knight by the time the playoffs start. Alec Martinez has been affected by his injuries. Hill isn’t the same goalie that he was last season due in part to injuries. I think his numbers post injury are more relevant than his numbers before the injury, as we saw with Jack Campbell during his last year with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He was one of the best goalies in the league prior to his injury that season. He has never truly rounded back into form.

Related: Vegas Golden Knights and LTIR: Part 1 – Conspiracy Theories and Potential Solutions

Speaking of the Leafs, their salary cap hit is the highest in the league because of their LTIR usage. In fact, the Golden Knights’ cap hit is only the third highest in the league. The Tampa Bay Lightning also have a higher cap hit than the Golden Knights. They did load up at the deadline. Noah Hanifin has been solid for them, but Anothony Mantha’s goal scoring pace has dropped from twenty goals in 56 games (0.37 goals per game) with the Washington Capitals to just three goals in 17 games (0.18 goals per game) with the Golden Knights. I’ll also share recent cautionary tales of teams loading up at the deadline and not winning the Stanley Cup. The Columbus Blue Jackets loaded up at the 2019 trade deadline knowing they were going to lose Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky in free agency that summer by acquiring Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. They lost in the second round. The New York Rangers acquired Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko at last year’s trade deadline, and lost in the first round. A similar fate could be awaiting the Golden Knights, especially since their lineup hasn’t yet been healthy enough to gain chemistry heading into the playoffs.

Friesen: Injuries are a factor. Stone and Hertl likely won’t be at their best when the puck drops on the Game 1 of the opening round next week, but the Oilers aren’t at full health either. McDavid has missed the past three games with a lower-body injury, but will hopefully return before the end of the regular season. There are likely other players on the Oilers’ roster that are less than 100% right now, though we won’t find that out until after they are done playing for the year. I still think the Oilers will have an easier matchup against a fully healthy Kings’ squad than a banged up Golden Knights’ team. When McDavid and Draisaitl dial it up several notches in the playoffs, there is nothing the Kings can do to stop them. The entire point of finishing near the top of the standings is to secure home-ice and give yourself the weakest possible opponent. That would be the Kings this year. As I mentioned earlier, I expect the Golden Knights would beat the Canucks in a best-of-seven series, so I expect the Oilers will run into them eventually. It would be ideal for the Golden Knights to win that series because it would give the Oilers home-ice advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs. I believe Edmonton can beat Vegas in the playoffs, but it doesn’t need to be first round.

Either potential matchup for the Oilers will be a fantastic series with an intriguing set of storylines. Who would you rather the Oielrs face? Let us know what you think in the comments!