April 22, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers will take on the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the NHL playoffs for the third consecutive season. 

Tale of the tape:

Edmonton Oilers

49-27-6, 104 points, 2nd place in Pacific Division

Goals For: 292 (4th)

Goals Against: 236 (10th)

PP%: 26.3% (4th)

PK%: 79.5% (15th)

Starting Goalie: Stuart Skinner (36-16-5, .905 sv%, 2.62 GAA)

Leading Scorers: McDavid (132 pts), Hyman (54 G)

The Oilers had a miserable 3-9-1 start to their season that prompted a coaching change. New head coach Kris Knoblauch guided the Oilers to a league best 46-18-5 record after being hired on November 13, 2023. The Oilers overcame a ten point deficit at American Thanksgiving to make the playoffs, which ties an all-time record. A historic sixteen-game winning streak paved the way for the Oilers to not just climb into a playoff spot, but to get home ice advantage in the first round as well.

The Oilers signed Corey Perry as a free agent in January after his contract had been terminated by the Chicago Blackhawks. Perry brings a winning pedigree and an annoying style of hockey suited for the playoffs. GM Ken Holland acquired Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick to fortify the forward group at the trade deadline. Henrique adds versatility and some offensive punch to an already potent Oilers team. Carrick adds some toughness and depth to the bottom of the forward group.

LA Kings

49-26-6, 104 points, 3rd place in Pacific Division

Goals For: 254 (17th)

Goals Against: 210 (3rd)

PP%: 22.6% (12th)

PK%: 84.6% (2nd)

Starting Goalie: Cam Talbot (27-20-6, .913 sv%, 2.48 GAA)

Leading Scorers: Kempe (75 pts), Fiala (29 G)

The Kings also went through a coaching change this season. They had a great start, including winning their first eleven road games of the season. Things came crashing down early in the new year though. A 3-8-6 stretch from late December until late January cost Todd McLellan his job. New coach Jim Hiller led the Kings to a 21-12-1 record after the All-Star break, which equates to a .632 points percentage. The Oilers had a 20-12-5 record after the All-Star break (which coincides with the end of their sixteen-game winning streak), which equates to a .608 points percentage.

The Kings didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. GM Rob Blake was satisfied to give Hiller a chance to see if he can get the Kings past the first round with the roster as he constructed it.

Five on Five Play: Advantage EDM

According to Moneypuck, the Oilers finished fourth in the league with a +41 goal differential at five on five. That’s nineteen goals better than the Kings, who finished at +22 (10th). The Oilers had the fifth highest five on five goal percentage, while the Kings finished tenth. The Oilers really shined in five on five expected goals percentage, leading the league with 58.17%. However, the Kings weren’t far behind in third spot (54.51%). The Kings are no slouch at five on five, but the Oilers were elite in this facet of the game this season.

Special Teams: EVEN

One of the most interesting matchups to watch in this series will be the Oilers’ fourth ranked powerplay against the Kings’ second ranked penalty kill. The Oilers went 3/15 (20%) on the powerplay in their four matchups against the Kings in the regular season. They managed to score at least one powerplay goal in three of the four games, but the Kings largely held the Oilers powerplay in check.

The Oilers penalty kill finished near the middle of the pack. However, it was either elite or bottom feeding at various points throughout the season. It had a horrendous start, then it got really good once Mark Stuart took over those duties after the coaching change. However, it cooled off significantly after the All-star break. The series could be decided based on which version of the Oilers penalty kill shows up.

Goaltending: EVEN

Most people would give the edge to the Skinner and the Oilers, but I think Talbot’s work this season is under-appreciated. Skinner has a better record than Talbot this season, but Talbot has the better numbers. Talbot was unbelievable in the first half of the season, but his performance dipped in the second half. David Rittich had the net for a while because he got hot, but Talbot will be that starter for the Kings. I’m sure that Talbot will be fired up to play his old team, the one that he holds the single-season franchise wins record for, and the one that gave up on him by signing Mikko Koskinen to a long-term contract in January 2018 then trading him at the 2018 trade deadline.

Injuries

Oilers: Evander Kane revealed that he has been dealing with a sports hernia injury for most of the season. He sat out the final four games of the regular season to rest the injury. He will be in the lineup for game one, but not at 100%.

Connor McDavid missed three games near the end of the regular season due to a nagging injury that flared up on him during the Oilers’ 4-2 win over the Calgary Flames on April 6, 2024. He was one of seven players that were rested in game 82. McDavid will play, but he might not be at 100% health either.

Mattias Janmark will also suit up in game one after missing practice on Saturday.

Kings: None.

Wrap

There will be no surprises for either of these teams in this series. The Oilers are rightfully the favourites after compiling a 3-1 record against the Kings this season and after beating them in the playoffs in each of the last two springs.

Make no mistake about it though, this will not be the cakewalk that many Oilers fans and pundits are expecting it to be. The Kings are healthy for the first time in this three year run of meeting the Oilers in the first round, and they enter the series on more of a roll than the Oilers. The Oilers powerplay won’t be the advantage that it once was. Buckle up for a tight series, Oilers fans.

Projected Game 1 Lineups (according to NHL.com)

Oilers

Henrique – McDavid – Hyman

Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Foegele

Holloway – McLeod – Perry

Kane – Carrick – Janmark

Ekholm – Bouchard

Nurse – Ceci

Kulak – Desharnais

Skinner

Pickard

Scratches: Brown, Ryan, Gagner, Stecher, Fanti (EBUG)

Kings

Laferriere – Kopitar – Kempe

Moore – Danault – Arvidsson

Fiala – Lizotte – Lewis

Byfield – Dubois – Grundstrom

Anderson – Doughty

Gavrikov – Roy

Englund – Spence

Talbot

Rittich

Scratches: Kaliyev, Moverare, Dell

Related: Third Time’s a Charm