May 28, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Darnell Nurse is drawing a lot of criticism after the Edmonton Oilers’ Game 3 loss to the Dallas Stars. Nurse was on the ice for two goals against in Game 3, including the game winning goal in the third period. Nurse has the lowest plus minus rating in the NHL playoffs (-12), and he has been on the ice for more five-on-five goals against in these playoffs than any other player in the league (18). 

Nurse has a $9.5 million cap hit with six years remaining, and his actual salary of $12 million for next season is tied for tenth highest in the league. Nurse’s contract is a source of rage for many Oilers fans, and his playoff performance this season is not doing anything to quell that rage.

I felt that Nurse was not at fault for either of the two five-on-five goals that he was on the ice for in Game 3. My hypothesis is that Nurse has not been as awful as his plus minus and five-on-five goal shares suggest he has been in these playoffs. I went through the video of all eighteen of the five-on-five goals Nurse has been on the ice for in these playoffs to see exactly what happened on each play. I assigned half blame on some of the goals because goals can’t always be boiled down to one singular mistake. Here’s what I found:

Round One

Nurse was on the ice for four five-on-five goals in round one. I have assigned blame to Nurse on two of those four goals. Both of those were mistakes in the neutral zone. 

Nurse misread and misplayed Anze Kopitar in the neutral zone, which led to the Los Angeles Kings captain scoring on a partial breakaway for the overtime winner in Game 2. Nurse also made a neutral zone mistake in Game 5. He half heartedly challenged Viktor Arvidsson in the neutral zone by lunging and swinging his stick in Arvidsson’s general direction. Nurse didn’t recognize that Blake Lizotte was attacking the space behind Nurse and that Ryan McLeod wasn’t in a good defensive position on Lizotte on the back check. Lizotte scored on a partial breakaway.

Round One Totals:

Nurse 5v5 on ice – 4

Nurse mistakes – 2

Ceci mistakes – 1

Bad bounces – 1

Round Two

Nurse gained the most ground in the race for the green jacket in round two by being on the ice for ten five-on-five goals in the seven game series against the Vancouver Canucks. I have assigned blame to Nurse for a total of two of those goals (one that was fully Nurse’s fault and two for which Nurse was partially to blame).

Nurse was on the ice for three five-on-five goals in Game 1, but none of those were fully his fault. He gave Elias Lindholm a little bit too much space as Lindholm came out from behind the net and passed it in front of the net, but the puck bounced in off of Stuart Skinner’s stick when he tried to break up the pass. I assigned half blame to Nurse on that goal, but that’s me being really harsh in my assessment. 

Nurse was at fault for a four-on-four goal against in Game 1 though. He was caught in no man’s land on JT Miller’s goal, and Miller made a nice deflection near the goal line.

I didn’t like Nurse’s play on the Canucks’ first goal in Game 4. He was standing in the slot trying to block a shot, but it ended up deflecting it in off of him. He should’ve been covering Dakota Joshua in front of the net rather than screening Calvin Pickard and trying to block that shot. I could’ve assigned half blame to Nurse on that one because it was ultimately an unlucky bounce; but I want to be sure I’m not using bias in this exercise, so I rounded up to give full blame to Nurse.

Nurse was also on the ice for the tying goal in a six-on-five situation in Game 4. Nurse was boxing out Joshua in front of the net this time, but the puck bounced in off of Joshua’s shin pad. That’s another unfortunate bounce.

I assigned half blame to Nurse on the Canucks’ lone goal in Game 6, but I only really did so for the sake of trying not to be biased in favour of Nurse for this exercise. Elias Pettersson shook McLeod on the right half wall and carried the puck behind the net. Nurse was in his spot in the zone defence at the left goal post. Nurse took a step towards Pettersson as he emerged on that side of the net, which was Nurse’s assignment. However, the danger was in front of the net with Nils Hoglander. McLeod was a little bit late getting to Hoglander, and Nurse had vacated that spot. That left Hoglander alone in front, and he buried it. I assigned blame to Nurse and McLeod on that goal.

Round Two Totals:

Nurse 5v5 on ice – 10

Nurse 5v5 mistakes – 2 (1 full, 2 half)

Skinner mistakes – 2

McLeod mistakes – 1.5

Ceci mistakes – 1

Pickard mistakes – 1

Foegele mistakes -1

McDavid mistakes – 1

Bad bounces – 1 (2 half)

Round 3

Nurse has been on the ice for four five-on-five goals in three games in the Western Conference Final. I have only assigned Nurse half blame on one goal in the series. That was the game tying goal in Game 1. Nurse was in his proper spot in the zone defence on the left side of the net, and Vincent Desharnais was covering Evgenii Dadonov in front of the net. The problem was that Tyler Seguin was left uncovered to the right of the Oilers net. Desharnais should’ve been covering Seguin, and Nurse should’ve been covering Dadonov. Instead, Nurse tried to block the incoming shot because he was not covering anyone, and the puck bounced off of his skate to Seguin who was wide open for a tap in goal. It was a bad bounce, but I’m not going to let Nurse and Desharnais off without pointing out the poor coverage. I assigned blame to both Nurse and Desharnais on that goal.

Round 3 Totals:

Nurse 5v5 on ice – 4

Nurse mistakes – 0.5

Desharnais mistakes – 2.5

Ceci mistakes – 0.5

Draisaitl mistakes – 0.5

Playoff Totals

Nurse on ice (4v4 and 5v6) – 2

Nurse mistakes (4v4 and 5v6) – 1

Nurse 5v5 on ice – 18

Number of 5v5 goals where Nurse made a full or partial mistake – 6 (33.3%)

Nurse 5v5 mistakes – 4.5 (25%)

Nurse’s partner’s 5v5 mistakes – 5 (27.8%)

Mistakes by forwards – 4 (22.2%)

Bad bounces to blame – 2 (1 full, 2 half) (11.1%)

Bad bounce a factor but not assigned blame – 2 (11.1%)

Total goals where a bad bounce was a factor – 5 (27.8%)

Wrap

Eighteen five-on-five goals against in fifteen playoff games is a problem without a doubt. His five-on-five goals against per sixty rate has jumped from 2.54 in the regular season to 4.33 in the playoffs. However, Nurse has only made a mistake on a third of the five-on-five goals that he has been on the ice for in the playoffs. That is certainly not the best such mark on the team, but that’s not catastrophic play either. It’s not totally fair to fully blame Nurse’s defence partners either because the mistake totals for Nurse and his partners are pretty even.

It isn’t Nurse’s fault that McLeod and Warren Foegele each had atrocious giveaways that ended up in the back of the net. It’s not Nurse’s fault that Connor McDavid lost his check after a moment of miscommunication with Zach Hyman. It isn’t Nurse’s fault that Ceci’s stick imploded on him or that Ceci failed to mark and tie up his man near the net. It’s not Nurse’s fault that Desharnais couldn’t chip a puck by Jamie Benn and then compounded the mistake by unnecessarily helping Sam Carrick defend a shot and leaving Wyatt Johnston wide open. It’s not Nurse’s fault that a puck bounced in off of him after Skinner made a save. It’s not Nurse’s fault that Skinner has let in two goals due to poor use of the reverse VH position.

Here’s a fun fact: Nurse has been on the ice for all six of the five-on-five goals against that McLeod has been on the ice for in these playoffs. Nurse and McLeod have an xG% of 58.99%, but they have been outscored 0-6. I don’t know how to explain the chasm between expected and actual goal share for Nurse and McLeod, but the numbers are what they are.

Related: Is McLeod’s defensive play compensating for his lack of offence?

Another fun fact is that according to Natural Stat Trick’s Line Tool, Nurse has a 59.88% xG% without Ceci. That number dives to 34.74% when paired with Ceci. Meanwhile, Ceci’s xG% without Nurse is only 37.52%. Nurse and Desharnais have an xG% of 52.89% together. Desharnais’s xG% without Nurse is 51.36%, which says that Desharnais is slightly better with Nurse than he is without him. Brett Kulak, Ceci’s other partner in these playoffs, has an xG% of 51.55% without Ceci. Kulak and Ceci have an xG% of 35.05% together. All of that tells me that Nurse is not the problem.

Nurse has flaws. He’s notedly not a strong rush defender because he tends to have poor gap control. Nurse has made a lot of defensive zone coverage issues in the past. Nurse is much better at transporting the puck with his legs than he is at making outlet passes.

However, hockey is a team game. Simply looking at a number of goals against while a player is on the ice and saying that he’s terrible is lazy analysis. Each goal has its own context that needs to be analyzed. Plus minus is a flawed stat because you can be on the ice and not responsible for a goal against. You can also be charged with a goal for or against fractions of a second after stepping onto the ice for a shift. Using five-on-five goals against to analyze a player’s performance really isn’t any less flawed.

My point here is let’s do our homework before we criticize players. Nurse hasn’t played up to his standard in these playoffs, but the numbers make his performance look FAR worse than it actually has been. It’s totally fair to criticize his offensive play since he only has two points in fifteen games, which is quite low for his standards. It’s fair to want more from a $9.25 million player. It’s not fair to place as much blame on him for the defensive results we’ve seen in these playoffs as he’s getting though.