June 11, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

Chris Cuthbert pointed out something interesting during the broadcast of Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers on Monday night. He said that Philip Broberg was the last Oiler to score a five-on-five goal. That happened in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars.

The Oilers have now gone three full games without a five-on-five goal. Broberg’s was the team’s only five-on-five goal in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final. Cuthbert added that an Oilers forward hasn’t scored a five-on-five goal since Game 4 of the third round. That goal was scored by Leon Draisaitl at the 15:22 mark of the second period of Game 4 of the Western Conference Final. That means that an Oilers forward hasn’t scored a five-on-five goal in 144:38 of game time.

That seems impossible for the team that led the playoffs in five-on-five goals through three rounds, and that features the two most prolific offensive players in the league; but the numbers are what they are. The Panthers have caught the updraft of statistical regression to the mean, and the Oilers have been victims of statistical regression to the mean through the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final.

The Oilers scored 39 even strength goals in the first three rounds of the playoffs, compared to 31 by the Panthers. However, Oilers defencemen scored six five-on-five goals in the second round against the Vancouver Canucks. Panthers defencemen have scored six five-on-five goals in the entire playoffs. Oilers defencemen had a big second round, which I believe can be attributed to tactics. The Canucks like to collapse in the low slot, and the way to create space there is to utilize point shots.

Anyway, the second round explosion in scoring by Oilers defencemen is a big reason their lead in five-on-five goal scoring in the playoffs is the size that it is. The count of five-on-five goals by forwards through three rounds between the Oilers and the Panthers goes to 30-26 in favour of the Oilers when we focus on the forwards only. That works out to 1.67 goals per game for Oilers forwards and 1.53 goals per game for Panthers forwards. The chasm in five-on-five offence between these two teams isn’t as large as we think it is.

I pointed out that the Oilers led the league in goals scored above expected through three rounds according to Moneypuck in my preview of this series. That suggests that they were overachieving in five-on-five goal scoring in the first three rounds. Six five-on-five goals by defencemen in one round is evidence of that. They have now fallen to third place after not scoring a five-on-five goal in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final.

Meanwhile, the Panthers were fourth in the league in fewest goals allowed against expected in the first three rounds. They are now first in that metric. They were already overachieving at five-on-five defending, and now they are overachieving by an even greater margin after the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final.

The Panthers were fourteenth in goals scored above expected through three rounds. They have now risen to the twelfth spot. That tells me that their goal scoring luck is starting to turn. I suggested that the Oilers could be in trouble if the Panthers’ goal scoring luck would turn, and it appears that is playing out early in the series.

The Oilers were eleventh in fewest goals allowed through three rounds. They sat at 0.19, which says that their defensive reality was quite close to their expected defensive performance. The Oilers have now fallen to fourteenth in that metric (2.04). Their defensive play has clearly taken a step backwards thus far in the Stanley Cup Final.

All of these stats pertaining to goal scoring are never consistent over a large sample size. There are always peaks and valleys. Oilers forwards scored eleven five-on-five goals in five games in round one (2.2/game), ten in seven games in round two (1.43/game), and nine in six games in round three (1.5/game). They scored all nine of those goals in the first four games of the Western Conference Final, so they had a mini hot streak where they scored 2.25 five-on-five goals per game at the start of that series. Aside from that mini hot streak, Oilers forwards have been struggling to score five-on-five goals since the end of round one.

Panthers forwards scored ten five-on-five goals in five games in round one (2/game), nine in six games in round two (1.5/game), and just seven in six games in round three (1.17) for comparison’s sake. Their forwards had a cold streak in the Eastern Conference Final, but they have scored three five-on-five goals in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final. 

Related: Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shoutouts: Panthers take care of business in Game 2

It’s clear that the Oilers need to find more five-on-five offence. We know how the team is built. We know who they rely on to provide most of that offence. Out of the 30 five-on-five goals scored by the Oilers in these playoffs, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have not appeared on the scoresheet on just ten of those goals (33.3%). They have been in on two thirds of the five-on-five goals scored by Oilers forwards in these playoffs. McDavid has one assist which came in a four-on-four scenario in Game 2, and Draisaitl has not recorded a point yet in the series. That obviously needs to change if the Oilers are going to come back in this series.

It’s not fair to place the entire burden on their shoulders though. Zach Hyman leads the team with nine five-on-five goals in these playoffs. His last one came in Game 3 of the last round. He has now gone five games without scoring a five-on-five goal. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has scored some huge powerplay goals in these playoffs, but he hasn’t scored a five-on-five goal since Game 4 of the second round. Evander Kane hasn’t scored a five-on-five goal since Game 6 of the second round. These are star players that are expected to produce offence, and they are cold right now.

Depth offence has been an issue for the Oilers for a long time. Only six of the 30 goals in question have come from players playing in the bottom six when the goal was scored, a mere 20%. Three of those goals came in Games 2 and 3 of the first round! There have only been three five-on-five goals scored by bottom six forwards since Game 3 of the first round.

Ryan McLeod has one five-on-five goal, but that was while playing on a line with Draisaitl (although Draisaitl did not get a point on the goal). Adam Henrique has two goals in these playoffs. One of those came in Game 1 of round one when he was playing with McDavid and Zach Hyman. Warren Foegele hasn’t scored in the playoffs at all, and he scored 20 goals in the regular season! Corey Perry, Derek Ryan, and Sam Carrick have zero goals in the playoffs as well. Some offensive contributions from these players in support roles would be extremely welcome.

Combine all these five-on-five scoring issues with the fact that the Oilers’ powerplay hasn’t scored in the series, and it spells trouble for the Oilers. The Oilers penalty kill just had a streak of 34 consecutive killed penalties come to an end as well. They need the penalty kill to avoid statistical regression to the mean now if they have any chance of winning this series.

While the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final did not go the Oilers’ way, the series is still quite young. Momentum doesn’t carry over from game to game. Each game is its own story. These statistical trends that I have pointed out can switch in the blink of an eye.