Insider believes Oilers will sign McDavid and Draisaitl to contract extensions
June 15, 2024
Call outs, Stand outs, and Shout outs: Oilers fans edition
June 15, 2024Can the Oilers come back from the dead?
NEWARK, NJ - DECEMBER 31: Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl (29) during the first period of the National Hockey Leage game between the New Jersey Devils and the Edmonton Oilers on December 31, 2021 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
June 15, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg
The Edmonton Oilers are facing an 0-3 deficit in the Stanley Cup Final. Only four teams have been able to overcome an 0-3 deficit in any NHL playoff series.
Most recently, the Los Angeles Kings flipped the script on the San Jose Sharks in the first round of the 2014 playoffs. The Philadelphia Flyers came back to beat the Boston Bruins in the second round of the 2010 playoffs, and the New York Islanders took down the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Quarterfinals in 1975.
The only team to come all the way back from an 0-3 deficit in the Stanley Cup Final was the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, who beat the Detroit Red Wings.
The odds of a comeback by the Oilers in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final are certainly long, but such a feat would not be unprecedented. The Oilers are saying all the right things about being optimistic, and we know that they believe that their best can beat anybody’s best. Let’s see if there are any reasons for them to be so optimistic.
The mentality needed for this type of comeback is to take things one moment at a time. Take each shift, period, and game as they come. Stay in the moment.
It starts with Game 4 on Saturday evening. The good news for the Oilers is that they have won each of the three Game 4s that they have played in these playoffs. Stuart Skinner shut the door on the Kings in a 1-0 Game 4 win in round one. The Oilers got a last minute game-winning goal from Evan Bouchard in Game 4 against the Vancouver Canucks, and they took it to the Dallas Stars in a 5-2 Game 4 win in the Western Conference Final.
The Oilers have won five Game 4s in a row dating back to last season. They went 1-2 in Game 4s in 2022, but both of those Game 4 losses in 2022 were overtime losses. In fact, four of the six Game 4 losses that the Oilers have had in Connor McDavid’s career came in overtime. These Oilers have a track record of playing well in Game 4s, which is one reason for optimism heading into Saturday.
The Oilers’ 2024 record in Game 4 of a series or later is 8-1. Their only loss late in a series was to the Canucks in Game 5 of the second round, where JT Miller scored a heartbreaking goal in the final minute of the game. The Oilers have played their best hockey late in series in this playoff run. That tells me that the group has poise when the stakes are bigger, and that the coaching staff has been able to make adjustments throughout a given series that have led to success.
Speaking of their coaching staff, the Oilers have lost three games in a row three times under Head Coach Kris Knoblauch this season. The first time was the first three games of Knoblauch’s first road trip, which included a stop in Sunrise. The Oilers won eight games in a row after that three game losing streak.
The Oilers then lost three games in a row from December 14-19, 2023. The second game in that losing streak came at the hands of the Florida Panthers. The Oilers then started their sixteen-game winning streak that lasted until the All-Star break.
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The last time the Oilers lost three games in a row was between February 14-16, 2024. That included an overtime loss to the Boston Bruins. They went on to win their next five games, including returning the favour by beating the Bruins in overtime on March 5, 2024.
It’s safe to say that the Oilers have responded well after losing three games in a row this season.
Let’s go deeper into this matchup with the Panthers though. The Panthers have now won five straight games over the Oilers this season. Well, the Oilers won the previous three matchups. There appears to be volatility and streaks in this head-to-head series.
Statistics tend to have a way of regressing towards the mean over time. For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction. By that logic, the Oilers should win the next three games at least; but it’s not that simple. We have no way of knowing when a statistical trend will start to go the other way. The Oilers could win the next four games against the Panthers, or they could go on a winning streak against the Panthers sometime over the course of the rest of the decade.
There are some statistical trends that are wildly in favour of the Panthers through the first three games of the series. For example, Sergei Bobrovsky has saved a ridiculous 5.44 goals above expected in this series. His .950 save percentage on inner slot shots is eighteen percentage points over the league average from the regular season (.770). That type of goaltending can’t last forever. It could last one more game, and all Bobrovsky and the Panthers need is one more game of solid goaltending to win the series; but it could also turn and regress towards the mean.
The Panthers have been at or near the top of the league in fewest goals allowed above expected throughout the 2023-24 regular season and these playoffs. This has been a trend for a long enough time that it’s unlikely to suddenly switch right now, but the Panthers do seem to have the puck luck on their side in their own zone.
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The Oilers have an astoundingly low 4.65% shooting percentage through three games of the Stanley Cup Final. They have gotten 21 high danger scoring chances in those three games, yet they only have four goals in the series. Part of their scoring woes can be attributed to the play of Bobrovsky, but part of it can also be attributed to their lack of finishing success. The Oilers are getting their chances. They just need to bury them when they come.
The Oilers powerplay is 0/10 in the series. This is a powerplay unit that has set NHL records for proficiency. The Oilers powerplay has struggled since Game 4 of the second round though. They scored fourteen powerplay goals in the first nine games of these playoffs, but they have gone just 5/31 (16%) since Game 4 of round two. Perhaps their current funk is the product of the statistical regression that I’m talking about in this piece, but we know this group is too good to stay cold for too long. They went 0/6 in the first four games of the Western Conference Final, but they got four powerplay goals in the final two games of that series to close out the Stars.
Look, I know that it is incredibly unlikely that the Oilers will come back to win this series; but the numbers are what they are. This team has already come back from the dead once this season, and now they have an opportunity to do it one more time. They need a few statistical trends to turn, and they need to stop shooting themselves in the foot if they want to come back from the dead one last time this season. Having the tides turn and seeing the Oilers mount a historic comeback in this Stanley Cup Final would be a fitting way for this season to end though.
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