October hockey in June
June 14, 2024Can the Oilers come back from the dead?
June 15, 2024June 15, 2024 by Eric Friesen
Despite the Edmonton Oilers trailing 3-0 in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli gave the fan base a reason for optimism about the club’s future ahead of Game 4.
Seravalli believes that the Oilers will sign cornerstone players Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard to contract extensions on 630 CHED’s Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer on Friday. All three players are under contract for the 2024-25 season, with Draisaitl and Bouchard eligible for extensions on July 1.
“I believe the Oilers have already begun discussions with Draisaitl’s camp,” Seravalli told Stauffer on Friday. “So, then you get that done. My point is, two years from now when the Oilers take the ice, [McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard] will add up to $40 million. That’s my projection. And if the Oilers are sitting in their office, on Jeff Jackson’s big board that he has up there, I bet the numbers are really close to that.”
What will their next contracts look like?
Getting Draisaitl locked up long-term will be the top priority for the Oilers’ next General Manager this off-season. Draisaitl has been arguably hockey’s most underpaid superstar over the past six seasons at $8.5 million annually. Since 2018-19, Draisaitl ranks second in goals, tied for third in assists, and second in points in the NHL, and has reached the 100-point plateau five times. However, he was only the 46th highest-paid player in the league this season.
Though many hockey experts believed Draisaitl’s second contract to be an overpay when he signed it back in 2017, the pact has proven to be a significant bargain for the Oilers. Draisaitl deserves a major raise on his next deal, and he will get one.
Auston Matthews is set to become the NHL’s new highest-paid player in 2024-25, with a cap hit of $13.25 million. But Draisaitl will undoubtedly surpass Matthews as the top earner in hockey the following season.
While Draisaitl reportedly has no interest in leaving Edmonton, there likely won’t be much room for negotiations either. The 28-year-old would be the most sought after free-agent in years if he were to hit the open market, so the Oilers must give him whatever he wants to keep him. Given Matthews’ new contract and the escalating salary cap, I think Draisaitl will sign for $14 million per season on a long-term deal.
After getting Draisaitl’s contract done, the Oilers would be smart to ink Bouchard to a new deal this summer, too. Bouchard is coming an off 82-point season as a defenceman, and is currently tied with Draisaitl for second in league scoring in the playoffs with Draisaitl.
Related: Oilers Sign Bouchard to Two-Year, $7.8 Million Contract
There’s a real chance that Bouchard could put up 100 points next season playing on the best power-play in the history of the game, which would only drive up his price even more. Bouchard is now the third-most valuable player on the Oilers behind only McDavid and Draisaitl, and is line to earn $10 million annually on an eight-year extension.
When McDavid signed his eight-year extension in 2017, he could have demanded $15 million per season, which would have been the maximum amount an NHL team could pay a player at the time (20% of the $75 million salary cap ceiling). However, McDavid left $2.5 million on the table in order to help the Oilers build a Stanley Cup contender.
Even at $12.5 million, McDavid is amongst the best value contracts in the entire league. McDavid, the most dominant offensive player in the past quarter-century, contributed to 45.2% of Edmonton’s total goals in 2023-24, while only taking up 15.0% of the team’s total cap.
The five-time Art Ross Trophy winner will raise the bar for player salaries once more in 2026-27, when the league’s salary cap is expected reach to $100 million. Though McDavid will almost certainly take less than he’s worth again, he should still come in around $16 million on an eight-year deal, which would be the richest contract in NHL history.
On the surface, committing $40 million to just three players could limit a team’s ability to remain competitive in the salary cap era. But for players of their ilk, keeping that trio in orange and blue through their prime years is essential for this club to compete for Stanley Cups.
McDavid and Draisaitl want to win together
While the Final isn’t over yet, the Oilers need to win four straight games against the Florida Panthers to claim their sixth Stanley Cup in franchise history. No team has come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the Final to win the Cup since the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1942.
If the Oilers were to pull off the reverse sweep, it would have to be considered one of the greatest comebacks in NHL history. However, per moneypuck.com, the Oilers have just a 6.6% chance of winning the series following their Game 3 loss at home on Thursday.
If they end up falling short of their ultimate goal this year, that will surely only make McDavid and Draisaitl hungrier to win it all in 2025. McDavid and Draisaitl are easily one of the most dominant offensive duos the game has ever seen, but they need to win at least one Stanley Cup together to be considered one of hockey’s greatest duos.
Signing Draisaitl to an extension this off-season would be a clear indication that McDavid will all extend with the Oilers in the summer of 2025. Beyond being teammates for the past nine years, McDavid and Draisaitl are also best friends. And Edmonton is the only NHL city where they can play together.
The Oilers are amongst the best team in the league, they have an owner who provides them with everything they need on and off the ice, and they play in front of the most passionate fans in the NHL. They couldn’t ask couldn’t ask for a better situation to be in.
Whether they win the Cup this year or not, this won’t be the last time McDavid and Draisaitl play in the Final. These two plan on winning multiple Cups together, and they plan on doing it with the Oilers.