June 18, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Florida Panthers will have a chance to clinch the series and win the Stanley Cup on home ice Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final in Sunrise on Tuesday night. The Edmonton Oilers will try to keep their season alive.

Panthers

The Panthers have a stellar 6-2 record in eight Game 5s played since 2021. That includes identical 3-1 records at home and on the road. 

They won a home Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021 before losing the series in Game 6. The Panthers were down 2-1 in their first round series against the Washington Capitals in 2022, and they won the next three games to take the series in six games, including a Game 5 win at home.

They also won three straight games to beat the Boston Bruins in last year’s first round, but they were down 3-1 in that series and they got their comeback started with a Game 5 home overtime victory. The Panthers were in the same situation they currently face against the Oilers in round two against the Toronto Maple Leafs last year. They got up 3-0 in the series and lost Game 4. They ended up beating the Leafs in overtime at home in Game 5 to take the series. The Panthers were down 3-1 in last year’s Stanley Cup Final, and the Vegas Golden Knights were able to win the Stanley Cup on their home ice.

Just like they did against the Leafs last year, the Panthers went up 3-0 on the Lightning in round one of these playoffs. They lost Game 4, and then they closed out the Lightning at home in Game 5. The Panthers have been able to win Game 5 at home to clinch a series after being up 3-0 in that series in both of the other occasions that they have faced that situation.

The Bruins were able to beat the Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena in Game 5 in round two, but they eventually lost the series in six games. The Panthers were down 2-1 to the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final; but they won three straight games to close out that series, including a Game 5 win on the road.

Oilers

The Oilers have a 5-4 record in Game 5s in the Connor McDavid era. They are 3-1 in Game 5s played at Rogers Place, but they are 2-3 in road Game 5s.

They won a Game 5 at home en route to beating the San Jose Sharks in six games in round one in 2017. Game 5 of the second round against the Anaheim Ducks in 2017 was the infamous three-goal collapse that included Ryan Kesler grabbing Cam Talbot’s pad and a Corey Perry double overtime winner.

The Oilers didn’t play another Game 5 until the first round of the 2022 playoffs. They took a tough overtime loss at home to the Los Angeles Kings. They eventually took that series with a memorable Game 7 win. Speaking of memorable wins, the Oilers beat the Calgary Flames in overtime in Game 5 in Calgary to finish off the Battle of Alberta in style.

The Oilers got another chance at a Game 5 at home against the Kings in last year’s playoffs, and they got the job done before winning the series in six games. Then they faced the Vegas Golden Knights, who took Game 5 at T-Mobile Arena and Game 6 at Rogers Place in round two.

The Oilers took care of business at home against the Kings again this year, and this time it was the series clincher. They had a heartbreaking loss to the Vancouver Canucks in round two this year thanks to a last minute JT Miller goal. Better luck was found in Dallas for Game 5 against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final. The Oilers powerplay busted out of its slump and they got the win on the road, which was one of three consecutive wins that got the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final.

Related: Can the Oilers keep the goals coming, or will Bobrovsky shut the door?

The recent Game 5 record for the Oilers isn’t exactly glimmering, but they have played well in every single one of those Game 5s. They had a three-goal lead in Anaheim with under five minutes left in the game. They lost to that one in overtime. They also lost to the Kings in overtime. Their other loss was to the Golden Knights. The Oilers had a 2-1 lead after the first period, but they had a tough second period. The Golden Knights scored two goals in about twenty seconds on a five-on-three with just under six minutes to go in the middle frame. The second one was a pass that deflected in off of Connor McDavid’s skate. They got another goal about a minute later. If not for a rough 90 second segment, the Oilers could easily have won that game.

Wrap

The Oilers have not always gotten the result they needed in Game 5s, but they have played well in every single one of them. They will definitely play well in Game 5 on Tuesday night. They just need to avoid the mental lapses of the past.

The Panthers will also play well. They have great results in recent Game 5s, they will surely tighten up defensively after allowing eight goals in Game 4, and they will be motivated to win a Stanley Cup on home ice. However, the Panthers lost their most recent Game 5 at home, and they lost in Game 5 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final.

I don’t know which way this particular Game 5 will go, but I’m expecting a tight checking, low scoring game. It should be a tense game, as it should be with the Stanley Cup in the building.