June 20, 2024 by Ryan Lotsberg

The Edmonton Oilers did what they needed to do in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final. They found a way to extend the series. The Oilers got out to an early lead and stretched it to three goals on two occasions. The Florida Panthers made it interesting, but the Oilers held on for the win. 

That was far from the Oilers’ best hockey though.

The five-on-five play in the first period of Game 5 was actually pretty even. Natural Stat Trick had the shot attempts (CF) at twelve apiece, the unblocked shot attempts (FF) at 8-7 for the Panthers, the shots on goal (SF) at 7-5 for the Oilers, the scoring chances (SCF) at 6-5 for the Oilers, and the high danger chances (HDCF) at 1-0 for the Oilers.

The Panthers took over at five-on-five for the rest of the game though:

FLA Game 5	CF%	FF%	SF%	SCF%	HDCF%
2nd Period	80% (28-7)	77.78% (21-6)	70% (14-6)	11-3 (78.57%)	75% (6-2)
3rd Period	87.5% (14-2)	83.33% (10-2)	85.71% (6-1)	88.89% (8-1)	100% (3-0)

The Panthers were quite clearly the better five-on-five team in Game 5. Game script is a big reason for that. The Oilers got an early lead and never relinquished it. The Oilers’ special teams is the real reason that they won the game though. Connor Brown opened the scoring with a short-handed goal. The Oilers powerplay finally got going with two powerplay goals. Both of those powerplay goals came extremely late in those powerplays, which means they had to grind for them. Evan Bouchard blasted a point shot off of Zach Hyman’s knee and into the net, and Connor McDavid found Corey Perry coming off the bench on an incredible individual play. They also got solid goaltending from Stuart Skinner, especially in the third period.

Related: Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shoutouts: Oilers drag Panthers back to Alberta with Game 5 win

Game 5 was almost the opposite of Game 1. The second period in Game 1 was pretty even, but the Oilers had the better of the play in the first and third periods:

EDM Game 1	CF%	FF%	SF%	SCF%	HDCF%
1st Period	64.29% (18-10)	76.19% (16-10)	76.92% (10-3)	72.73% (8-3)	83.33% (5-1)
3rd Period	60% (15-10)	57.89% (11-8)	54.55% (6-5)	61.54% (8-5)	60% (3-2)

The Panthers won Game 1 3-0. They got one even strength goal in each of the first two periods, and they added an empty netter late in the game. Sergei Bobrovsky stole that game for the Panthers with a 32-save shutout.

Related: Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shoutouts: Panthers escape with Game 1 win over the Oilers

The Panthers were the better team in the first two periods of Game 2, but the Oilers did pick it up in the third period. Once again, game script was a factor. The Panthers took the lead early in the third period, and the Oilers were forced to press. The Panthers got the win in Game 2, and they deserved it.

Related: Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shoutouts: Panthers take care of business in Game 2

Game 3 was similar to Game 1 in the sense that the Oilers had the better of the play in two periods but lost. The first period was somewhat even, although the Panthers had a 4-2 edge in high danger chances. The Panthers held SLIGHT edges in all of the categories mentioned in this piece except for FF%, which was even at 50%. This is how the rest of Game 3 went:

EDM Game 3	CF%	FF%	SF%	SCF%	HDCF%
2nd Period	58.33% (21-15)	56.67% (17-13)	63.64% (14-8)	68.75% (11-5)	42.86% (3-4)
3rd Period	53.85% (14-12)	57.89% (11-8)	54.55% (6-5)	75% (9-3)	75% (3-1)

The second period was the most puzzling from an Oilers perspective. They dominated the Panthers in that period, but they lost the period 3-1. Warren Foegele scored an early goal, but then the Oilers gave up three consecutive goals in the middle frame to go down 4-1. You can see that the HDCF% was the only category that favoured the Panthers in the second period. The Oilers simply made too many glaring mistakes that turned into goals in that period. The Oilers deserved what they got in Game 3 because of those mistakes, but the underlying numbers tell a different tale.

Related: Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shoutouts: Panthers take stranglehold of Stanley Cup Final in Game 3

Game 4 was a lopsided 8-1 win for the Oilers in which they got two five-on-five goals in all three periods. Looking at the five-on-five numbers alone wouldn’t tell you that the Oilers ran away with the game though:

EDM Game 4	CF%	FF%	SF%	SCF%	HDCF%
1st Period	27.78% (10-26)	28.57% (6-15)	33.33% (6-12)	44.4% (8-10)	57.14% (4-3)
2nd Period	62.86% (22-13)	75% (18-6)	80% (12-3)	63.64% (14-8)	71.43% (5-2)
3rd Period	26.09% (6-17)	26.67% (4-11)	37.5% (3-5)	15.38% (2-11)	25% (1-3)

The Panthers had a decent first period, but found themselves down 3-1 because of a Mattias Janmark short-handed goal and two five-on-five goals against. The Oilers just dominated the second period. The Panthers had a bit of a push back in the third period, which is understandable with the score being 6-1 after two periods. The Oilers still found two more five-on-five goals in that third period though. The Panthers certainly did not deserve a win in Game 4, but the underlying five-on-five numbers said they fared better than the scoreboard showed. The Panthers had an expected five-on-five goals percentage (xGF%) of 54.51% in Game 4, but the actual five-on-five goal count was 1-6.

Related: Call Outs, Stand Outs, and Shoutouts: Oilers make presence felt in emphatic Game 4 win

Wrap

The aggregate of the five-on-five metrics of the fifteen periods of the series says that the Panthers have had the better of the five-on-five play in eight periods compared to seven periods for the Oilers. The Panthers are ahead 11-10 in five-on-five goals. The expected five-on-five goals in the series are 9.38 – 8.15 in favour of the Panthers. They have a one-game lead to show for it. 

The series has been pretty even with pushes from both teams in every game. No team has carried the play for all three periods in any game in this series, as should be expected in a Stanley Cup Final.

Related: McDavid Magic

A lot of people get carried away while looking at these five-on-five numbers, but we have to be careful when examining these types of metrics in small sample sizes. While there’s a correlation between the shot and scoring chance metrics I’ve analyzed here and actual goals, it’s not a fully direct correlation. These numbers are not totally predictive of goal share and game outcomes, especially in single game sample sizes. Game script is a definite factor as well.

These numbers do tell us that the Oilers will need to play a whole lot better in Game 6 than they did in Game 5 if they want to keep the series going though. They also tell us that despite an 8-1 win in Game 4, we haven’t seen the Oilers’ best hockey in this series yet.

All information in this piece courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.